Kaizer Chiefs vs Mamelodi Sundowns

Premier Soccer League· Regular Season - 3
WLLWGoals 11-72nd in league
DWWWGoals 24-133rd in league
Home1W 1D 0L(3-1)
Away1W 1D 0L(4-3)
FNB Stadium

FNB Stadium, Johannesburg · Capacity 94,736 · grass

Today
Lineups~1h before
Kickoff
Half-time
Full-time

Match events

  1. 18'B. León
  2. 26'Inácio Miguel
  3. 34'T. Moloisane
  4. 45'B. J. Aubaas
  5. 64'L. Phili (S. Mthethwa)
  6. 65'L. Phili
  7. 67'L. Baartman (W. Duba)
  8. 67'L. Phili (Ethan Chislett)
  9. 70'Antonio Van Wyk (S. Ndlovu)
  10. 70'S. Mkhulise (B. Mokoena)
  11. 71'T. Matthews
  12. 71'Z. Macheke
  13. 74'T. Matthews (Cassius Mailula)
  14. 75'Cassius Mailula (G. Kekana)
  15. 82'Lebohang Maboe (A. Bitegeko)
  16. 88'B. Mokoena
  17. 90'B. León (Lebo Mothiba)
  18. 90'M. Modiba (D. Lunga)
Lineups unavailable for this match.
Kaizer ChiefsMamelodi Sundowns
1.1
Goals/game
2.4
0.7
Conceded/game
1.3

AI match analysis

Kaizer Chiefs win
21%
Draw
29%
Mamelodi Sundowns win
50%
55%BTTS
51.9%Over 2.5
21.2%Kaizer Chiefs clean sheet
30.1%Mamelodi Sundowns clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-2

The data suggests a competitive match between Kaizer Chiefs and Mamelodi Sundowns, with Chiefs currently ranked higher at 1st position, reflecting solid recent form. However, Sundowns' scoring average of 2.2 goals per game and a strong away record indicate they may have the upper hand. Historically, their head-to-head encounters have been closely contested, further complicating predictions.

  • Kaizer Chiefs rank 1 with 6 points from 2 matches
  • Mamelodi Sundowns rank 6 with 3 points from 1 match
  • Last 5 head-to-head matches are evenly contested with 1 win each
  • Kaizer Chiefs have a recent form of WW, while Sundowns have W. Overall scoring averages favor Sundowns.
AI ConfidenceHigh confidence
84/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is moderate, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Mamelodi Sundowns

  • Historical edgeMamelodi Sundowns

    Mamelodi Sundowns have won 5 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams.

    5/8 H2H wins
  • Sharper attackMamelodi Sundowns

    Mamelodi Sundowns are averaging 2.4 goals scored per game over their recent matches.

    2.4/game
  • Tighter defenseKaizer Chiefs

    Kaizer Chiefs are conceding just 0.7 goals per game over their recent matches.

    0.7/game conceded
  • Higher league positionKaizer Chiefs

    Kaizer Chiefs sit 1 place above Mamelodi Sundowns in the table.

    #2 vs #3

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

  • AI and market are closely aligned

    The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pickExact score missed

We picked Mamelodi Sundowns at 50% — final result was a draw, Kaizer Chiefs 1-1 Mamelodi Sundowns.

Predicted score was 1-2.

This was a high confidence pick (84/100) that didn't come through — a reminder that no forecast is guaranteed.

Closing odds vs. our model

Mamelodi Sundowns1.84market 54.4% · model 50%
Draw3.16market 31.7% · model 29%
Kaizer Chiefs4.31market 23.2% · model 21%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

  • Kaizer Chiefs have averaged 1.1 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Mamelodi Sundowns have averaged 2.4 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

0Kaizer Chiefs wins
3Draws
5Mamelodi Sundowns wins
4-16Goals

Odds comparison

Match winner

Kaizer Chiefs4.31best 4.60
Draw3.16best 3.25
Mamelodi Sundowns1.84best 1.89

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.52.27best 2.35
Under 2.51.58best 1.62

Both teams to score

Yes2.04best 2.10
No1.70best 1.75

Double chance

Kaizer Chiefs/Draw1.84best 1.90
Kaizer Chiefs/Mamelodi Sundowns1.29best 1.36
Draw/Mamelodi Sundowns1.18best 1.23

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes3.75best 3.75
Clean Sheet - Home — No1.25best 1.25
Clean Sheet - Away — Yes2.10best 2.10
Clean Sheet - Away — No1.67best 1.67

Average and best price across 12 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Kaizer Chiefs4.31 0.04
Draw3.16 0.04
Mamelodi Sundowns1.84 0.06
14 Aug14 Aug

Model vs market

Kaizer Chiefs win-0.2pp
AI
21%
Market
21.2%
Draw0pp
AI
29%
Market
29%
Mamelodi Sundowns win+0.2pp
AI
50%
Market
49.8%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

League standings

#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
2
Kaizer Chiefs
3210+47DWW
3
Mamelodi Sundowns
3210+37WDW

Pre-match comparison

1.1Goals scored per game2.4
0.7Goals conceded per game1.3

Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.

When do they score?

Kaizer Chiefs

0-15'
0%
16-30'
0%
31-45'
33.3%
46-60'
0%
61-75'
33.3%
76-90+'
33.3%

Mamelodi Sundowns

0-15'
25%
16-30'
25%
31-45'
0%
46-60'
0%
61-75'
25%
76-90+'
25%

More Premier Soccer League predictions

Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win Kaizer Chiefs vs Mamelodi Sundowns?+

Our AI model favors Mamelodi Sundowns to win, with a 50% probability (Draw 29%, Kaizer Chiefs 21%).

Where is Kaizer Chiefs vs Mamelodi Sundowns played?+

The match is played at FNB Stadium, Johannesburg (capacity 94,736).

What time does Kaizer Chiefs vs Mamelodi Sundowns kick off?+

Kickoff is at Aug 15, 2026, 1:00 PM (your local time, based on your device).