Kaspiy vs Yelimay Semey — Premier League

Premier League· Regular Season - 22

Kaspiy

2–2Full-time

Yelimay Semey

WLDDWDGoals 12-1511th in league

WDWWWWGoals 28-146th in league

Home4W 3D 3L(16-15)

Away4W 5D 2L(17-14)

Match events

10'S. Tanasijević
12'P. Sedko
13'P. Sedko
35'M. Mittendorfer
45+3'P. Sedko
45'Ivan Konovalov
49'D. Epton
57'Z. Payruz (D. Palacio)
57'I. Sviridov (R. Soto)
61'A. Ashirbek
64'F. Placca (R. Murtazayev)
65'A. Ashirbek (A. Zhaksylykov)
68'K. Sylla (D. Usenov)
73'M. Kalmyrza (A. Bekmyrza)
79'A. Zhaksylykov (S. Tanasijević)
84'N. Ndombasi (I. Umaev)
85'P. Sedko (M. Serikbay)
85'D. Aripov (N. Elemes)
88'A. Zhaksylykov
88'R. Murtazayev

Lineups

Kaspiy

Yelimay Semey

4-4-23-5-2

Piraly AlievCoach

A. Karpovich

Bench (11)

Bench (8)

AI match analysis

Kaspiy win

26.55%

Draw

25.29%

Yelimay Semey win

48.16%

64.3%BTTS

67%Over 2.5

11.6%Kaspiy clean sheet

27.3%Yelimay Semey clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-2

The statistics suggest that Yelimay Semey enters this match with a strong form, having won 4 of their last 5 contests. Kaspiy's recent record shows struggle, particularly in defense, with an average of 1.5 goals conceded per game. Given Yelimay's impressive away scoring average of 2.8 goals per game, they are favored to secure a victory against Kaspiy, who are mid-table and battling for consistency.

Yelimay Semey has won 4 of their last 5 matches.
Kaspiy has averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.5 goals conceded per game in their last 10 matches.
Kaspiy has a home win rate of 44.4% this season, while Yelimay's away win rate is 40%.
Yelimay Semey is currently 5 points ahead of Kaspiy in the league standings.

AI ConfidenceHigh confidence

78/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is moderate, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Yelimay Semey

Strong recent formYelimay Semey
Yelimay Semey are unbeaten in their last 5 matches, including 4 wins.
4W 1D 0L
Sharper attackYelimay Semey
Yelimay Semey are averaging 2.8 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
2.8/game
Higher league positionYelimay Semey
Yelimay Semey sit 5 places above Kaspiy in the table.
#6 vs #11
Strong home recordKaspiy
Kaspiy have won 4 of their last 10 home matches.
4/10 home wins

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
No head-to-head history
These two teams have no recorded meetings, so the prediction relies on form and standings alone.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pickExact score missed

We picked Yelimay Semey at 48.16% — final result was a draw, Kaspiy 2-2 Yelimay Semey.

Predicted score was 1-2.

This was a high confidence pick (78/100) that didn't come through — a reminder that no forecast is guaranteed.

Closing odds vs. our model

Yelimay Semey1.90market 52.6% · model 48.16%

Kaspiy3.25market 30.8% · model 26.55%

Draw ✓3.54market 28.2% · model 25.29%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

Kaspiy have averaged 1.2 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Yelimay Semey have averaged 2.8 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.

Head-to-head

No previous meetings on record.

Odds comparison

Match winner

Kaspiy3.25▲best 3.52

Draw3.54▲best 3.80

Yelimay Semey1.90▼best 1.98

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.63▼best 1.71

Under 2.52.12▲best 2.30

Both teams to score

Yes1.53▼best 1.57

No2.19▲best 2.30

Double chance

Kaspiy/Draw1.73▲best 1.85

Kaspiy/Yelimay Semey1.21▼best 1.30

Draw/Yelimay Semey1.27▼best 1.29

Average and best price across 12 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Kaspiy3.25▲ 0.35

Draw3.54▲ 0.34

Yelimay Semey1.90▼ 0.36

15 Aug – 16 Aug

Model vs market

Kaspiy win-1.1pp

AI

26.55%

Market

27.6%

Draw0pp

AI

25.29%

Market

25.3%

Yelimay Semey win+1.1pp

AI

48.16%

Market

47.1%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.