Kauê Fernandes vs Jalin Turner

UFC· UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry· Lightweight
LWL
11-2-0 (W-L-D)6 KO, 2 SUB
Ht 175cmWt 70kgReach 185cmStance Orthodox
Nova Uniao
LWLW
The Tarantula14-9-0 (W-L-D)10 KO, 4 SUB
Ht 191cmWt 70kgReach 196cmStance Southpaw
Carlson Gracie Riverside

Value found

+2% edge

Kauê Fernandes win

2.22AI fair odds
2.27Bookmaker odds
+2%Value

Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.

Today
Fight time
In Progress
Result

AI fight analysis

Kauê Fernandes win
45%
Jalin Turner win
55%

Data suggests that Kauê Fernandes has a slight chance at victory with his knockout finishing ability, but Jalin Turner's reach and striking experience could give him an edge. The fight could be competitive, considering Turner has a mixed record in recent bouts and Fernandes is coming off a win. However, the numbers favor Turner, reflecting his overall career experience and physical advantages.

  • Kauê Fernandes has finished 6 of 11 wins by knockout, showcasing striking power.
  • Jalin Turner has a height and reach advantage, measuring 191cm tall and 196cm in reach.
  • Turner has more overall experience in professional fights with a career record of 14-9 compared to Fernandes' 11-2.
AI ConfidenceModerate confidence
73/100

Confidence is high because the two fighters are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and both fighters' career records and recent fight history are available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Jalin Turner

  • Reach advantageJalin Turner

    Jalin Turner has a 11cm reach advantage over their opponent, a real edge in striking exchanges at range.

    196cm reach
  • More experiencedJalin Turner

    Jalin Turner has fought 23 professional fights, 10 more than their opponent tonight.

    23 pro fights
  • Superior career recordKauê Fernandes

    Kauê Fernandes carries a 11-2 professional record, a 85% win rate.

    11-2
  • High finishing rateJalin Turner

    Jalin Turner has finished 14 of 14 career wins by knockout or submission, a 100% finish rate.

    100% finish rate

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

  • AI and market are closely aligned

    The bookmaker market and our model currently see this fight almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

  • Close matchup

    The model gives the favorite only a 55% probability, so this is a closely-matched fight and confidence remains moderate.

Odds comparison

Moneyline

Kauê Fernandes2.27best 2.35AI 45%
Jalin Turner1.64best 1.67AI 55%

Average price across 7 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Moneyline — odds movement

Kauê Fernandes2.27 0.09
Jalin Turner1.64 0.05
12 Aug14 Aug

Model vs market

Kauê Fernandes win+3.1pp
AI
45%
Market
41.9%
Jalin Turner win-3.1pp
AI
55%
Market
58.1%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

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Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win Kauê Fernandes vs Jalin Turner?+

Our AI model favors Jalin Turner to win, with a 55% probability (Kauê Fernandes 45%).

What time does Kauê Fernandes vs Jalin Turner start?+

This fight took place on Aug 16, 2026, 2:15 AM (your local time, based on your device).

What are the career records of Kauê Fernandes and Jalin Turner?+

Kauê Fernandes is 11-2-0 (W-L-D). Jalin Turner is 14-9-0 (W-L-D).