KDV vs Chertanovo Moscow

Cup· Regions Path - 3rd Round
KDV
24Full-time
Chertanovo Moscow
WWWWGoals 15-11
LLWWGoals 13-16

Value found

+45.5% edge

Draw

3.33AI fair odds
4.85Bookmaker odds
+45.5%Value

Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.

Today
Lineups~1h before
Kickoff
Half-time
Full-time

Match events

  1. 8'R. Gaynullin
  2. 14'M. Grachev
  3. 38'R. Gaynullin
  4. 54'D. Kondrakov
  5. 60'M. Melnikov
  6. 62'D. Kondrakov
Lineups unavailable for this match.
KDVChertanovo Moscow
1.9
Goals/game
1.3
1.4
Conceded/game
1.6

AI match analysis

KDV win
45%
Draw
30%
Chertanovo Moscow win
25%
60.8%BTTS
59.3%Over 2.5
26.3%KDV clean sheet
17.6%Chertanovo Moscow clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-1

Data suggests a competitive match considering both teams' recent forms, with KDV showing resilience at home and Chertanovo Moscow experiencing some difficulties away. The scoring averages hint at a tightly contested match, potentially leading to a draw.

  • KDV unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 home matches
  • Chertanovo Moscow has struggled with 2 losses in their last 5 matches
  • Both teams maintain similar scoring averages, KDV 1.88 scored to Chertanovo's 1.30
AI ConfidenceLow confidence
39/100

Confidence is low because the probability gap between outcomes is moderate, and this fixture has limited historical data available so far.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors KDV

  • Good recent formKDV

    KDV have won 4 of their last 5 matches.

    4W 0D 1L
  • Poor recent formChertanovo Moscow

    Chertanovo Moscow have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.

    2W 0D 3L
  • Sharper attackKDV

    KDV are averaging 1.9 goals scored per game over their recent matches.

    1.9/game
  • Tighter defenseChertanovo Moscow

    Chertanovo Moscow are conceding just 1.6 goals per game over their recent matches.

    1.6/game conceded

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

  • Below-average model confidence

    Overall model confidence for this match is 39/100 — treat the prediction as directional rather than decisive.

  • No head-to-head history

    These two teams have no recorded meetings, so the prediction relies on form and standings alone.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pickExact score missed

We picked KDV at 45% — final result was Chertanovo Moscow win, KDV 2-4 Chertanovo Moscow.

Predicted score was 1-1.

The model itself flagged this as a low confidence pick (39/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.

Closing odds vs. our model

KDV1.40market 71.2% · model 45%
Draw4.85market 20.6% · model 30%
Chertanovo Moscow5.33market 18.7% · model 25%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

  • KDV have averaged 1.9 goals scored per game over their last 8 matches.
  • Chertanovo Moscow have averaged 1.3 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.

Head-to-head

No previous meetings on record.

Odds comparison

Match winner

KDV1.40best 1.41
Draw4.85best 4.85
Chertanovo Moscow5.33best 5.42

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.76best 1.76
Under 2.51.95best 1.95

Both teams to score

Yes1.87best 1.87
No1.81best 1.82

Double chance

KDV/Draw1.09best 1.09
KDV/Chertanovo Moscow1.11best 1.11
Draw/Chertanovo Moscow2.53best 2.53

Average and best price across 2 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

KDV1.40
Draw4.85
Chertanovo Moscow5.33 0.08
26 Aug26 Aug

Model vs market

KDV win-19.4pp
AI
45%
Market
64.4%
Draw+11.3pp
AI
30%
Market
18.7%
Chertanovo Moscow win+8pp
AI
25%
Market
17%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

Standings not available yet.

Pre-match comparison

1.88Goals scored per game1.3
1.38Goals conceded per game1.6

Rolling averages based on each team's last 8 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.

When do they score?

KDV

0-15'
22.2%
16-30'
0%
31-45'
0%
46-60'
0%
61-75'
11.1%
76-90+'
66.7%

Chertanovo Moscow

0-15'
0%
16-30'
14.3%
31-45'
28.6%
46-60'
14.3%
61-75'
28.6%
76-90+'
14.3%

More Cup predictions

Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win KDV vs Chertanovo Moscow?+

Our AI model favors KDV to win, with a 45% probability (Draw 30%, Chertanovo Moscow 25%).

What time does KDV vs Chertanovo Moscow kick off?+

Kickoff is at Aug 26, 2026, 11:00 AM (your local time, based on your device).