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KuPS vs Mariehamn

Veikkausliiga· Regular Season - 21
KuPS
2–4Full-time
Mariehamn
DLWDGoals 16-101st in league
DWLWGoals 17-1712th in league
Home6W 4D 1L(21-14)
Away1W 1D 9L(8-26)
Vare Areena

Vare Areena, Kuopio · Capacity 8,543 · artificial turf

Value found

+6.5% edge

Mariehamn win

9.07AI fair odds
9.65Bookmaker odds
+6.5%Value

Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.

Today
Lineups~1h before
Kickoff
Half-time
Full-time

Match events

  1. 3'Taneli Hämäläinen
  2. 6'A. Larsson (J. Svedberg)
  3. 11'Gustav Engvall
  4. 13'N. Nurmi
  5. 14'J. Svedberg
  6. 19'F. Gyamfi
  7. 42'L. Richtner (J. van der Heyden)
  8. 46'Arttu Heinonen (Tommi Jyry)
  9. 46'Jorginho (Clinton Antwi)
  10. 46'A. Bergvik (A. Huttunen)
  11. 46'Niilo Kujasalo (Petteri Pennanen)
  12. 59'Piotr Parzyszek (Clinton Antwi)
  13. 62'L. Richtner (V. Widlund)
  14. 65'A. Puukko (Saku Savolainen)
  15. 65'V. Widlund (T. Jakobsen)
  16. 71'Joslyn Luyeye-Lutumba (Jaime Moreno)
  17. 77'A. Larsson (L. Andersson)
  18. 90'S. Ngulube (T. Koivisto)

Lineups

KuPS
Mariehamn
4-2-3-14-2-3-1
1
1. Johannes Kreidl
30
← 46'
30. Jorginho
23
23. Arttu Lötjönen
33
33. Taneli Hämäläinen
29
29. Akseli Puukko
22
22. Saikou Touray
13
← 46'
13. Niilo Kujasalo
9
9. Gustav Engvall
17
← 46'
17. Arttu Heinonen
21
← 71'
21. Joslyn Luyeye-Lutumba
20
20. Piotr Parzyszek
7
← 77'
7. A. Larsson
14
← 46'
14. A. Bergvik
23
← 65'
23. V. Widlund
11
11. J. Svedberg
20
20. Emmanuel Patut
8
8. J. van der Heyden
31
← 90'
31. S. Ngulube
53
53. F. Gyamfi
2
2. N. Nurmi
27
27. L. Richtner
1
1. Kevin Lund
Miika NuutinenCoachRoberth Bjorknesjo
Bench (8)
Bench (7)
KuPSMariehamn
1.6
Goals/game
1.7
1.0
Conceded/game
1.7

AI match analysis

KuPS win
74.61%
Draw
14.36%
Mariehamn win
11.03%
59.8%BTTS
57.7%Over 2.5
25.9%KuPS clean sheet
19.2%Mariehamn clean sheet

Predicted score: 2-0

The data suggests a strong advantage for KuPS, who have not lost at home this season and are in excellent form, unbeaten in their last five matches. In contrast, Mariehamn's away struggles continue, reflected in their zero wins on the road, indicating a significant gap in performance between the two teams.

  • KuPS ranked 1st in the league with a strong home record of 6W 4D 0L this season
  • Mariehamn is currently at the bottom of the standings with an away record of 0W 1D 9L
  • Recent head-to-head results favor KuPS, with 4 wins out of the last 5 encounters against Mariehamn
AI ConfidenceHigh confidence
100/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors KuPS

  • Higher league positionKuPS

    KuPS sit 11 places above Mariehamn in the table.

    #1 vs #12
  • Strong home recordKuPS

    KuPS have won 6 of their last 11 home matches.

    6/11 home wins
  • Weak away recordMariehamn

    Mariehamn have won 1 of their last 11 away matches.

    1/11 away wins
  • Tighter defenseKuPS

    KuPS are conceding just 1 goals per game over their recent matches.

    1/game conceded

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

  • AI and market are closely aligned

    The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pickExact score missed

We picked KuPS at 74.61% — final result was Mariehamn win, KuPS 2-4 Mariehamn.

Predicted score was 2-0.

This was a high confidence pick (100/100) that didn't come through — a reminder that no forecast is guaranteed.

Closing odds vs. our model

KuPS1.24market 80.7% · model 74.61%
Draw5.95market 16.8% · model 14.36%
Mariehamn ✓9.65market 10.4% · model 11.03%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

  • KuPS have averaged 1.6 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Mariehamn have averaged 1.7 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

4KuPS wins
2Draws
2Mariehamn wins
13-6Goals
Mariehamn
1–0Jun 18, 2025, 2:00 PM
KuPS
KuPS
4–1Apr 23, 2025, 3:00 PM
Mariehamn
KuPS
3–0Aug 25, 2024, 1:00 PM
Mariehamn
Mariehamn
2–2Apr 13, 2024, 2:00 PM
KuPS
KuPS
0–1Jun 27, 2023, 3:00 PM
Mariehamn
Mariehamn
0–2Apr 30, 2023, 1:00 PM
KuPS
KuPS
1–0Aug 14, 2022, 1:00 PM
Mariehamn
Mariehamn
1–1May 8, 2022, 3:30 PM
KuPS

Odds comparison

Match winner

KuPS1.24▲best 1.28
Draw5.95▼best 6.65
Mariehamn9.65▼best 13.00

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.38▼best 1.42
Under 2.52.83▲best 3.04

Both teams to score

Yes1.78▼best 1.85
No1.95▲best 2.05

Double chance

KuPS/Draw1.05▲best 1.07
KuPS/Mariehamn1.10▼best 1.14
Draw/Mariehamn3.74▼best 4.15

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes2.10▲best 2.10
Clean Sheet - Home — No1.67▼best 1.67
Clean Sheet - Away — Yes11.00best 11.00
Clean Sheet - Away — No1.05best 1.05

Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

KuPS1.24▲ 0.05
Draw5.95▲ 0.20
Mariehamn9.65▼ 3.35
20 Aug – 23 Aug

Model vs market

KuPS win-0.2pp
AI
74.61%
Market
74.8%
Draw-1.2pp
AI
14.36%
Market
15.6%
Mariehamn win+1.4pp
AI
11.03%
Market
9.6%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

League standings

#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
1
KuPS
211272+1643WDWW
12
Mariehamn
212514-2811WLLD

Pre-match comparison

1.6Goals scored per game1.7
1Goals conceded per game1.7

Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.

When do they score?

KuPS

0-15'
40%
16-30'
40%
31-45'
0%
46-60'
0%
61-75'
0%
76-90+'
20%

Mariehamn

0-15'
0%
16-30'
50%
31-45'
0%
46-60'
50%
61-75'
0%
76-90+'
0%

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Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win KuPS vs Mariehamn?+

Our AI model favors KuPS to win, with a 74.61% probability (Draw 14.36%, Mariehamn 11.03%).

Where is KuPS vs Mariehamn played?+

The match is played at Vare Areena, Kuopio (capacity 8,543).

What time does KuPS vs Mariehamn kick off?+

Kickoff is at Aug 23, 2026, 12:00 PM (your local time, based on your device).