Las Vegas Aces W vs Atlanta Dream W
Michelob Ultra Arena
Value found
+38.6% edgeLas Vegas Aces W win
Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.
Total points edge
AI expects 164 total points vs the market's 180.5 line — leans under by 16.5 points.
Score by quarter
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 16 | 20 | 21 | 82 | |
| 24 | 28 | 19 | 26 | 97 |
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 88-76
Data suggests that the Las Vegas Aces W are heavily favored to win this matchup against the Atlanta Dream W, given their impressive home win rate and dominant recent form. The Aces' offense has been prolific, scoring nearly 90 points per game, while they have managed to keep opponents to an average of 84 points. Additionally, historical performance in their last five encounters shows the Aces winning four times against the Dream, strengthening their position as the home team.
- Las Vegas Aces W have a strong home win rate of 90% this season.
- In their last 10 games, the Aces scored an average of 89.7 points and only allowed 84.2 points.
- Historically, the Aces have consistently defeated the Dream, winning 4 of their last 5 head-to-head meetings.
- Atlanta Dream W has a lower away win rate of 60% this season.
Confidence is moderate because the win-probability gap between the two teams is decisive, and the bookmaker market sees this differently, which tempers confidence, and some historical data (form, H2H or standings) is still incomplete.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Las Vegas Aces W
- Historical edgeLas Vegas Aces W
Las Vegas Aces W have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.
5/5 H2H wins - Tighter defenseAtlanta Dream W
Atlanta Dream W are conceding just 85.4 points per game over their recent matches.
85.4/game conceded - Good recent formLas Vegas Aces W
Las Vegas Aces W have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
3W 0D 2L - Good recent formAtlanta Dream W
Atlanta Dream W have won 4 of their last 5 matches.
4W 0D 1L
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Las Vegas Aces W at 86% — final result was Atlanta Dream W win, Las Vegas Aces W 82-97 Atlanta Dream W.
Predicted score was 88-76.
The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (64/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Las Vegas Aces W have averaged 89.8 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Atlanta Dream W have averaged 92.8 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Las Vegas Aces W are unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 meetings with Atlanta Dream W.
Odds comparison
Moneyline
Point spread
| Line | Las Vegas Aces W | Atlanta Dream W |
|---|---|---|
| +1.5 | 1.67 | 2.09 |
| +2 | 1.67 | 2.05 |
| +2.5 | 1.76 | 1.97 |
| +3 | 1.80 | 1.92 |
| +3.5 | 1.88 | 1.87 |
| +4 | 1.92 | 1.80 |
| +4.5 | 1.97 | 1.75 |
| +5 | 2.05 | 1.67 |
Total points
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 179 | 1.72 | 2.02 |
| 179.5 | 1.76 | 1.97 |
| 180 | 1.80 | 1.92 |
| 180.5 | 1.88 | 1.88 |
| 181 | 1.92 | 1.80 |
| 181.5 | 1.93 | 1.78 |
| 182 | 2.00 | 1.73 |
| 182.5 | 2.02 | 1.72 |
Average price across 8 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Players to watch
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | L | Diff | Win% | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 37 | 24 | 13 | +207 | 65 | — | |
| 2 | 39 | 25 | 14 | +222 | 64 | — | |
| 3 | 38 | 23 | 15 | +119 | 61 | — | |
| 4 | 37 | 22 | 15 | -19 | 60 | — | |
| 5 | 38 | 15 | 23 | -95 | 40 | — | |
| 6 | 37 | 11 | 26 | -237 | 30 | — | |
| 7 | 36 | 9 | 27 | -288 | 25 | — | |
| 1 | 38 | 31 | 7 | +337 | 82 | — | |
| 2 | 36 | 25 | 11 | +212 | 69 | — | |
| 3 | 39 | 26 | 13 | +143 | 67 | — | |
| 4 | 37 | 24 | 13 | +207 | 65 | — | |
| 5 | 39 | 25 | 14 | +222 | 64 | — | |
| 6 | 38 | 23 | 15 | +119 | 61 | — | |
| 7 | 37 | 22 | 15 | -19 | 60 | — | |
| 8 | 38 | 22 | 16 | +102 | 58 | — | |
| 9 | 37 | 15 | 22 | -162 | 41 | — | |
| 10 | 38 | 15 | 23 | -95 | 40 | — | |
| 11 | 37 | 13 | 24 | -193 | 35 | — | |
| 12 | 37 | 13 | 24 | -138 | 35 | — | |
| 13 | 37 | 11 | 26 | -237 | 30 | — | |
| 14 | 36 | 9 | 27 | -288 | 25 | — | |
| 15 | 38 | 7 | 31 | -210 | 18 | — | |
| 1 | 38 | 31 | 7 | +337 | 82 | — | |
| 2 | 36 | 25 | 11 | +212 | 69 | — | |
| 3 | 39 | 26 | 13 | +143 | 67 | — | |
| 4 | 38 | 22 | 16 | +102 | 58 | — | |
| 5 | 37 | 15 | 22 | -162 | 41 | — | |
| 6 | 37 | 13 | 24 | -193 | 35 | — | |
| 7 | 37 | 13 | 24 | -138 | 35 | — | |
| 8 | 38 | 7 | 31 | -210 | 18 | — |
Season comparison
Based on each team's last 20 and 20 finished games.
More NBA W predictions
Frequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Las Vegas Aces W vs Atlanta Dream W?+
Our AI model favors Las Vegas Aces W to win, with a 86% probability (Atlanta Dream W 14%).
What time does Las Vegas Aces W vs Atlanta Dream W start?+
Tip-off is at Aug 19, 2026, 1:00 AM (your local time, based on your device).
What was the score by quarter in Las Vegas Aces W vs Atlanta Dream W?+
Las Vegas Aces W: 25-16-20-21. Atlanta Dream W: 24-28-19-26. Final: 82-97.

