Las Vegas Aces W vs Atlanta Dream W

NBA W
LWWWPts 898-8223rd in Overall Standings · 26-13
WWWLPts 928-8541st in Eastern Conference · 24-13
Home17W 3L(1773-1572)
Away15W 5L(1719-1531)

Michelob Ultra Arena

Value found

+38.6% edge

Las Vegas Aces W win

1.16AI fair odds
1.61Bookmaker odds
+38.6%Value

Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.

Total points edge

AI expects 164 total points vs the market's 180.5 line — leans under by 16.5 points.

Today
Tip-off
In Progress
Final

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Las Vegas Aces W
2516202182
Atlanta Dream W
2428192697

AI match analysis

Las Vegas Aces W win
86%
Atlanta Dream W win
14%

Predicted score: 88-76

Data suggests that the Las Vegas Aces W are heavily favored to win this matchup against the Atlanta Dream W, given their impressive home win rate and dominant recent form. The Aces' offense has been prolific, scoring nearly 90 points per game, while they have managed to keep opponents to an average of 84 points. Additionally, historical performance in their last five encounters shows the Aces winning four times against the Dream, strengthening their position as the home team.

  • Las Vegas Aces W have a strong home win rate of 90% this season.
  • In their last 10 games, the Aces scored an average of 89.7 points and only allowed 84.2 points.
  • Historically, the Aces have consistently defeated the Dream, winning 4 of their last 5 head-to-head meetings.
  • Atlanta Dream W has a lower away win rate of 60% this season.
AI ConfidenceModerate confidence
64/100

Confidence is moderate because the win-probability gap between the two teams is decisive, and the bookmaker market sees this differently, which tempers confidence, and some historical data (form, H2H or standings) is still incomplete.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Las Vegas Aces W

  • Historical edgeLas Vegas Aces W

    Las Vegas Aces W have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.

    5/5 H2H wins
  • Tighter defenseAtlanta Dream W

    Atlanta Dream W are conceding just 85.4 points per game over their recent matches.

    85.4/game conceded
  • Good recent formLas Vegas Aces W

    Las Vegas Aces W have won 3 of their last 5 matches.

    3W 0D 2L
  • Good recent formAtlanta Dream W

    Atlanta Dream W have won 4 of their last 5 matches.

    4W 0D 1L

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pickExact score missed

We picked Las Vegas Aces W at 86% — final result was Atlanta Dream W win, Las Vegas Aces W 82-97 Atlanta Dream W.

Predicted score was 88-76.

The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (64/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.

Closing odds vs. our model

Las Vegas Aces W1.61market 62.1% · model 86%
Atlanta Dream W2.30market 43.5% · model 14%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

  • Las Vegas Aces W have averaged 89.8 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Atlanta Dream W have averaged 92.8 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Las Vegas Aces W are unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 meetings with Atlanta Dream W.

Odds comparison

Moneyline

Las Vegas Aces W1.61best 1.62AI 86%
Atlanta Dream W2.30best 2.38AI 14%

Point spread

LineLas Vegas Aces WAtlanta Dream W
+1.51.672.09
+21.672.05
+2.51.761.97
+31.801.92
+3.51.881.87
+41.921.80
+4.51.971.75
+52.051.67

Total points

LineOverUnder
1791.722.02
179.51.761.97
1801.801.92
180.51.881.88
1811.921.80
181.51.931.78
1822.001.73
182.52.021.72

Average price across 8 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Model vs market

Las Vegas Aces W win+27.2pp
AI
86%
Market
58.8%
Atlanta Dream W win-27.2pp
AI
14%
Market
41.2%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

Players to watch

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings

5Las Vegas Aces W wins
0Atlanta Dream W wins
409-361Points

League standings

#TeamPWLDiffWin%Form
1
Atlanta Dream W
372413+20765
2
Indiana Fever W
392514+22264
3
New York Liberty W
382315+11961
4
Washington Mystics W
372215-1960
5
Chicago Sky W
381523-9540
6
Toronto Tempo W
371126-23730
7
Connecticut Sun W
36927-28825
1
Minnesota Lynx W
38317+33782
2
Golden State Valkyries W
362511+21269
3
Las Vegas Aces W
392613+14367
4
Atlanta Dream W
372413+20765
5
Indiana Fever W
392514+22264
6
New York Liberty W
382315+11961
7
Washington Mystics W
372215-1960
8
Dallas Wings W
382216+10258
9
Portland Fire W
371522-16241
10
Chicago Sky W
381523-9540
11
Los Angeles Sparks W
371324-19335
12
Phoenix Mercury W
371324-13835
13
Toronto Tempo W
371126-23730
14
Connecticut Sun W
36927-28825
15
Seattle Storm W
38731-21018
1
Minnesota Lynx W
38317+33782
2
Golden State Valkyries W
362511+21269
3
Las Vegas Aces W
392613+14367
4
Dallas Wings W
382216+10258
5
Portland Fire W
371522-16241
6
Los Angeles Sparks W
371324-19335
7
Phoenix Mercury W
371324-13835
8
Seattle Storm W
38731-21018

Season comparison

89.3Points scored per game89.7
81.8Points allowed per game79.3
48.1%Field goal %47.3%
36.9%3-point %34.7%
83.2%Free throw %82%
29.6Rebounds per game37
20.5Assists per game22
11.3Turnovers per game10.7

Based on each team's last 20 and 20 finished games.

More NBA W predictions

Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win Las Vegas Aces W vs Atlanta Dream W?+

Our AI model favors Las Vegas Aces W to win, with a 86% probability (Atlanta Dream W 14%).

What time does Las Vegas Aces W vs Atlanta Dream W start?+

Tip-off is at Aug 19, 2026, 1:00 AM (your local time, based on your device).

What was the score by quarter in Las Vegas Aces W vs Atlanta Dream W?+

Las Vegas Aces W: 25-16-20-21. Atlanta Dream W: 24-28-19-26. Final: 82-97.