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LD Alajuelense vs San Carlos

Primera División· Apertura - 5
LD Alajuelense
0–1Full-time
San Carlos
WWLWGoals 19-112nd in league
LDLWGoals 9-176th in league
Home2W 0D 1L(4-3)
Away1W 0D 2L(2-4)
Estadio Alejandro Morera Soto

Estadio Alejandro Morera Soto, Alajuela · Capacity 17,895 · grass

Today
Lineups~1h before
Kickoff
Half-time
Full-time

Match events

  1. 16'J. McDonald (B. Martinez)
  2. 17'D. Paz
  3. 21'K. Cerdas
  4. 25'R. Wilson
  5. 35'Angel Zaldívar (E. Barley)
  6. 46'J. Lucumi (R. Matarrita)
  7. 61'J. Aguilar (C. Agualimpia)
  8. 61'R. Cordoba (O. Rojas)
  9. 62'D. Paz (Y. Molina)
  10. 62'K. Cerdas (R. Vidal)
  11. 62'R. Wilson (Celso Borges)
  12. 71'J. Rivera Stuart
  13. 73'J. Venegas (J. Valverde)
  14. 73'C. Perez (K. Michel)
Lineups unavailable for this match.
LD AlajuelenseSan Carlos
1.9
Goals/game
0.9
1.1
Conceded/game
1.7

AI match analysis

LD Alajuelense win
64%
Draw
23%
San Carlos win
13%
52.8%BTTS
53.1%Over 2.5
36.8%LD Alajuelense clean sheet
16.5%San Carlos clean sheet

Predicted score: 2-0

The data suggests that LD Alajuelense is in strong form, seated at 2nd in the standings with a perfect home record this season. In contrast, San Carlos struggles, currently in 9th place and without an away point to their name. Historically, the head-to-head matchups strongly favor Alajuelense, which further solidifies their position as the likely winners.

  • LD Alajuelense unbeaten at home this season with 2 wins
  • San Carlos has not earned any points away this season
  • Historically, LD Alajuelense has a strong head-to-head record against San Carlos
AI ConfidenceHigh confidence
100/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors LD Alajuelense

  • Strong home recordLD Alajuelense

    LD Alajuelense have won 2 of their last 3 home matches.

    2/3 home wins
  • Weak away recordSan Carlos

    San Carlos have won 1 of their last 3 away matches.

    1/3 away wins
  • Historical edgeLD Alajuelense

    LD Alajuelense have won 5 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams.

    5/8 H2H wins
  • Higher league positionLD Alajuelense

    LD Alajuelense sit 4 places above San Carlos in the table.

    #2 vs #6

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

  • AI and market are closely aligned

    The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pickExact score missed

We picked LD Alajuelense at 64% — final result was San Carlos win, LD Alajuelense 0-1 San Carlos.

Predicted score was 2-0.

This was a high confidence pick (100/100) that didn't come through — a reminder that no forecast is guaranteed.

Closing odds vs. our model

LD Alajuelense1.45market 68.8% · model 64%
Draw4.02market 24.9% · model 23%
San Carlos ✓6.13market 16.3% · model 13%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

  • LD Alajuelense have averaged 1.9 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • San Carlos have averaged 0.9 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Over 2.5 goals landed in 1 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
  • Both teams scored in 1 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

5LD Alajuelense wins
3Draws
0San Carlos wins
10-1Goals
San Carlos
0–2Mar 8, 2026, 2:00 AM
LD Alajuelense
LD Alajuelense
1–0Jan 25, 2026, 2:00 AM
San Carlos
San Carlos
0–2Dec 7, 2025, 2:00 AM
LD Alajuelense
LD Alajuelense
2–0Sep 17, 2025, 2:00 AM
San Carlos
LD Alajuelense
0–0Mar 28, 2025, 2:00 AM
San Carlos
San Carlos
0–0Jan 30, 2025, 1:00 AM
LD Alajuelense
LD Alajuelense
3–1Oct 27, 2024, 2:00 AM
San Carlos
San Carlos
0–0Aug 25, 2024, 1:00 AM
LD Alajuelense

Odds comparison

Match winner

LD Alajuelense1.45▼best 1.53
Draw4.02▲best 4.30
San Carlos6.13▲best 7.30

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.70▲best 1.75
Under 2.52.05▼best 2.10

Both teams to score

Yes1.82▼best 1.88
No1.86▲best 1.93

Double chance

LD Alajuelense/Draw1.09best 1.14
LD Alajuelense/San Carlos1.18best 1.22
Draw/San Carlos2.48▼best 2.75

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.62▲best 1.62
Clean Sheet - Home — Yes2.20▼best 2.20
Clean Sheet - Away — Yes6.00▼best 6.00
Clean Sheet - Away — No1.12▲best 1.12

Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

LD Alajuelense1.45▲ 0.02
Draw4.02▼ 0.03
San Carlos6.13▼ 0.21
21 Aug – 23 Aug

Model vs market

LD Alajuelense win+1.5pp
AI
64%
Market
62.5%
Draw+0.4pp
AI
23%
Market
22.6%
San Carlos win-1.8pp
AI
13%
Market
14.8%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

League standings

#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
2
LD Alajuelense
5311+410WWWD
6
San Carlos
5203-46WWLL

Pre-match comparison

1.9Goals scored per game0.9
1.1Goals conceded per game1.7

Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.

When do they score?

LD Alajuelense

0-15'
5.3%
16-30'
10.5%
31-45'
31.6%
46-60'
15.8%
61-75'
15.8%
76-90+'
21.1%

San Carlos

0-15'
11.1%
16-30'
0%
31-45'
44.4%
46-60'
11.1%
61-75'
11.1%
76-90+'
22.2%

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San Carlos
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12.09
X3.17
23.22

Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win LD Alajuelense vs San Carlos?+

Our AI model favors LD Alajuelense to win, with a 64% probability (Draw 23%, San Carlos 13%).

Where is LD Alajuelense vs San Carlos played?+

The match is played at Estadio Alejandro Morera Soto, Alajuela (capacity 17,895).

What time does LD Alajuelense vs San Carlos kick off?+

Kickoff is at Aug 24, 2026, 12:00 AM (your local time, based on your device).