Le Mans vs Stade Brestois 29
Stade Marie-Marvingt, Le Mans · Capacity 25,064 · grass · Referee: A. Petit
Match events
- 31'Romain Del Castillo (K. Doumbia)
- 43'Ludovic Ajorque
- 45+2'D. Gueye (L. Mafouta)
- 51'A. Lauray
- 55'L. Mafouta (A. Bourabaa)
- 62'K. Doumbia
- 63'L. Mafouta (E. Colas)
- 63'A. Lauray (L. Bretelle)
- 63'Joseph Nonge (Mamady Diambou)
- 72'Romain Del Castillo (Mama Baldé)
- 73'P. Mboup (A. Camblan)
- 73'A. Bourabaa (B. Brahimi)
- 73'D. Gueye (W. Harhouz)
- 81'Y. Larouci (L. Calodat)
- 90'K. Doumbia (L. C. Laine M.)
Lineups
- 1.4
- Goals/game
- 1.1
- 0.7
- Conceded/game
- 2.3
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 1-1
The data suggests a closely contested match, with Le Mans showing resilience in drawing multiple recent games, despite struggles to secure wins. Meanwhile, Stade Brestois has faced challenges defensively, averaging over two goals conceded per match in their last ten outings. Both teams are yet to play in the current season, making prior form a pivotal indicator, leading to a predicted draw.
- Le Mans has drawn 3 of their last 5 matches.
- Brestois has lost 3 of their last 5 matches, conceding 2.3 goals on average.
- Le Mans scored an average of 1.4 goals per game in their last 10 matches.
Confidence is moderate because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Le Mans
- Tighter defenseLe Mans
Le Mans are conceding just 0.7 goals per game over their recent matches.
0.7/game conceded - Poor recent formStade Brestois 29
Stade Brestois 29 have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
0W 2D 3L - Higher league positionStade Brestois 29
Stade Brestois 29 sit 1 place above Le Mans in the table.
#6 vs #7 - Sharper attackLe Mans
Le Mans are averaging 1.4 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
1.4/game
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
- Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 37% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
- No head-to-head history
These two teams have no recorded meetings, so the prediction relies on form and standings alone.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Le Mans at 37.27% — final result was a draw, Le Mans 2-2 Stade Brestois 29.
Predicted score was 1-1.
The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (63/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Le Mans have averaged 1.4 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Stade Brestois 29 have averaged 1.1 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Head-to-head
No previous meetings on record.
Odds comparison
Match winner
Total goals (2.5 line)
Both teams to score
Double chance
Clean sheet
Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 |  Le Mans | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | D |
| 6 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | D |
Pre-match comparison
Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.
Referee
A. Petit
Based on 1 matches officiated (our own data).
More Ligue 1 predictions
Frequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Le Mans vs Stade Brestois 29?+
Our AI model favors Le Mans to win, with a 37.27% probability (Draw 28.95%, Stade Brestois 29 33.78%).
Where is Le Mans vs Stade Brestois 29 played?+
The match is played at Stade Marie-Marvingt, Le Mans (capacity 25,064).
What time does Le Mans vs Stade Brestois 29 kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 22, 2026, 6:45 PM (your local time, based on your device).