Leon vs Monterrey
Match events
- 24'J. Cortizo (D. Cambindo)
- 45'Ricardo Chávez
- 1.4
- Goals/game
- 1.8
- 1.2
- Conceded/game
- 1.4
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 1-2
Recent performances suggest a slight edge for Monterrey, who are coming off a strong victory against FC Juarez and have scored significantly more in their last matches. Leon, on the other hand, has struggled at home, having lost as many games as they have won this season. The head-to-head record is also competitive, but recent form favors the away side.
- Monterrey ranks 5th with a positive goal difference of +2
- Leon has lost 2 out of their last 3 home games this season
- Monterrey has won their last two matches, scoring a total of 8 goals
Confidence is high because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Monterrey
- Historical edgeLeon
Leon have won 3 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams.
3/8 H2H wins - Higher league positionMonterrey
Monterrey sit 3 places above Leon in the table.
#5 vs #8 - Good recent formLeon
Leon have won 4 of their last 5 matches.
4W 0D 1L - Good recent formMonterrey
Monterrey have won 4 of their last 5 matches.
4W 0D 1L
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
- Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 41% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Monterrey at 41% — final result was Leon win, Leon 2-0 Monterrey.
Predicted score was 1-2.
The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (74/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Leon have averaged 1.4 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Monterrey have averaged 1.8 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Over 2.5 goals landed in 2 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
- Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.
Head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
Odds comparison
Match winner
Total goals (2.5 line)
Both teams to score
Double chance
Clean sheet
Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
League standings
Pre-match comparison
Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.
When do they score?
Leon
Monterrey
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Guadalajara ChivasFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Leon vs Monterrey?+
Our AI model favors Monterrey to win, with a 41% probability (Draw 27%, Leon 32%).
What time does Leon vs Monterrey kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 22, 2026, 1:00 AM (your local time, based on your device).