Leones del Norte vs Independiente del Valle
Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra, Ibarra · Capacity 17,260 · grass
Match events
- 1'J. Anangono (P. Madero)
- 24'P. Madero
- 27'B. Kreiman
- 1.7
- Goals/game
- 1.0
- 0.7
- Conceded/game
- 0.7
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 1-2
Data suggests that Independiente del Valle is in excellent form, having won their last five matches, including consistently strong away performances. Meanwhile, Leones del Norte's home form includes several draws, potentially giving Independiente del Valle an edge. The statistics show that Leones del Norte concedes an average of 0.7 goals, while Independiente del Valle allows the same, indicating a potentially tight contest. However, the away side's dominance in the standings may favor them in this matchup.
- Independiente del Valle has won 11 of 12 away matches this season
- Leones del Norte has drawn 5 home games this season
- Independiente del Valle ranks 1st in the standings, while Leones del Norte is 7th
- Leones del Norte averages 1.7 goals scored per game, while Independiente del Valle averages 1 per game.
Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Independiente del Valle
- Weak home recordLeones del Norte
Leones del Norte have won 5 of their last 13 home matches.
5/13 home wins - Strong away recordIndependiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle have won 12 of their last 13 away matches.
12/13 away wins - Good recent formLeones del Norte
Leones del Norte have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
3W 0D 2L - Strong recent formIndependiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle are unbeaten in their last 5 matches, including 5 wins.
5W 0D 0L
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
- No head-to-head history
These two teams have no recorded meetings, so the prediction relies on form and standings alone.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Independiente del Valle at 54.31% — final result was Independiente del Valle win, Leones del Norte 2-3 Independiente del Valle.
Predicted score was 1-2.
This was a high confidence pick (84/100) — and it paid off.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Leones del Norte have averaged 1.7 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Independiente del Valle have averaged 1 goal scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Head-to-head
No previous meetings on record.
Odds comparison
Match winner
Total goals (2.5 line)
Both teams to score
Double chance
Clean sheet
Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 |  Leones del Norte | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 0 | 35 | WLDW |
| 1 |  Independiente del Valle | 26 | 22 | 1 | 3 | +38 | 67 | WWWW |
Pre-match comparison
Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.
When do they score?
Leones del Norte
Independiente del Valle
More Liga Pro predictions
Mushuc Runa SC
Delfin SC
Tecnico Universitario
Deportivo CuencaIndependiente del Valle
Universidad Catolica
Guayaquil City FC
LDU de QuitoFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Leones del Norte vs Independiente del Valle?+
Our AI model favors Independiente del Valle to win, with a 54.31% probability (Draw 25.97%, Leones del Norte 19.72%).
Where is Leones del Norte vs Independiente del Valle played?+
The match is played at Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra, Ibarra (capacity 17,260).
What time does Leones del Norte vs Independiente del Valle kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 22, 2026, 12:00 AM (your local time, based on your device).