Leones Negros UDG vs CDS Tampico Madero — Liga de Expansión MX

Liga de Expansión MX· Apertura - 4

Leones Negros UDG

4–0Full-time

CDS Tampico Madero

DDWLLWGoals 10-141st in league

WWLLWWGoals 15-89th in league

Home1W 0D 1L(5-3)

Away0W 0D 2L(0-5)

Estadio Jalisco, Guadalajara · Capacity 56,713 · grass · Referee: E. L. Sanchez M.

Today

Lineups~1h before

Kickoff

Half-time

Full-time

Match events

2'O. Gonzalez (O. Gil)
10'Ó. Manzanarez
19'S. A. Hernandez
21'O. Gil
24'A. De Jesus Bravo Santiago (O. Gil)
43'J. Agüayo
43'A. De Jesus Bravo Santiago
46'J. Lopez Gonzalez (J. Martinez)
46'O. Gil (A. Carreon)
49'R. Pena
53'O. Gonzalez
59'L. Razo (D. Munoz)
59'S. A. Hernandez (J. Perez)
66'O. Gonzalez (L. Sepulveda)
66'J. Brigido (K. Loera)
69'J. Tovar (O. Mendez)
69'R. Pena (F. Lopez)
81'C. Cruz (E. Escalante)
86'K. Loera

Lineups unavailable for this match.

Leones Negros UDGCDS Tampico Madero

1.0
Goals/game: 1.5; 1.4
Conceded/game: 0.8

AI match analysis

Leones Negros UDG win

41%

Draw

29%

CDS Tampico Madero win

30%

45.4%BTTS

41.7%Over 2.5

23.5%Leones Negros UDG clean sheet

40.7%CDS Tampico Madero clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-1

The numbers suggest a competitive match between Leones Negros UDG and CDS Tampico Madero, with both teams struggling to secure wins in their recent outings. Leones has yet to win at home this season, while Tampico Madero has shown some attacking form despite a recent drop in away performance. Given the head-to-head history and current form, a draw seems a plausible outcome.

Leones Negros UDG has lost all three of their last home matches this season.
CDS Tampico Madero has a recent average of 1.4 goals scored per game.
Historically, the head-to-head record is very close, with both teams evenly matched in their last encounters.

AI ConfidenceHigh confidence

76/100

Confidence is high because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Leones Negros UDG

Poor recent formCDS Tampico Madero
CDS Tampico Madero have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
2W 0D 3L
Tighter defenseCDS Tampico Madero
CDS Tampico Madero are conceding just 0.8 goals per game over their recent matches.
0.8/game conceded
Historical edgeCDS Tampico Madero
CDS Tampico Madero have won 5 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams.
5/8 H2H wins
Higher league positionLeones Negros UDG
Leones Negros UDG sit 8 places above CDS Tampico Madero in the table.
#1 vs #9

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 41% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pickExact score missed

We picked Leones Negros UDG at 41% — final result was Leones Negros UDG win, Leones Negros UDG 4-0 CDS Tampico Madero.

Predicted score was 1-1.

This was a high confidence pick (76/100) — and it paid off.

Closing odds vs. our model

Leones Negros UDG ✓2.21market 45.2% · model 41%

CDS Tampico Madero3.07market 32.6% · model 30%

Draw3.15market 31.7% · model 29%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

Leones Negros UDG have averaged 1 goal scored per game over their last 10 matches.
CDS Tampico Madero have averaged 1.5 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

3Leones Negros UDG wins

0Draws

5CDS Tampico Madero wins

11-13Goals

Leones Negros UDG

4–1Jan 11, 2026, 6:00 PM

CDS Tampico Madero

4–1Nov 17, 2025, 2:00 AM

Leones Negros UDG

1–0Nov 14, 2025, 2:30 AM

CDS Tampico Madero

1–0Aug 3, 2025, 1:00 AM

Leones Negros UDG

1–0May 25, 2025, 1:00 AM

CDS Tampico Madero

2–1May 18, 2025, 1:00 AM

Leones Negros UDG

1–2Apr 6, 2025, 6:00 PM

CDS Tampico Madero

3–2Oct 20, 2024, 3:00 AM

Leones Negros UDG

Odds comparison

Match winner

Leones Negros UDG2.21▼best 2.31

Draw3.15best 3.32

CDS Tampico Madero3.07▲best 3.40

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.52.09▲best 2.17

Under 2.51.67▼best 1.70

Both teams to score

Yes1.81▲best 1.83

No1.85best 1.88

Double chance

Leones Negros UDG/Draw1.33▲best 1.37

Leones Negros UDG/CDS Tampico Madero1.30best 1.35

Draw/CDS Tampico Madero1.56▼best 1.60

Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Leones Negros UDG2.21▲ 0.01

Draw3.15▼ 0.03

CDS Tampico Madero3.07▼ 0.01

15 Aug – 16 Aug

Model vs market

Leones Negros UDG win-0.3pp

41%

Market

41.3%

Draw0pp

29%

Market

29%

CDS Tampico Madero win+0.2pp

30%

Market

29.8%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.