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Liverpool Montevideo vs Cerro

Primera División· Clausura - 3
Liverpool Montevideo
4–0Full-time
Cerro
LLWWGoals 9-131st in league
WWWWGoals 14-64th in league
Home2W 0D 0L(5-0)
Away1W 0D 1L(1-4)
Estadio Belvedere

Estadio Belvedere, Montevideo · Capacity 8,384 · grass

Today
Lineups~1h before
Kickoff
Half-time
Full-time

Match events

  1. 36'J. Amaro
  2. 46'A. Severo (L. Pais)
  3. 46'A. Cambon (R. Mederos)
  4. 58'N. Garayalde
  5. 61'F. Bregante
  6. 63'F. Martinez
  7. 65'C. Barros (E. Forclaz)
  8. 65'J. Amaro (E. Rodriguez)
  9. 73'K. Lewis (D. Romero)
  10. 73'F. Martinez (R. M. Degregorio)
  11. 74'Brahian Alemán
  12. 75'L. Acosta
  13. 79'R. Bentancourt (Facundo Barcelo)
  14. 81'R. Machado
  15. 83'Facundo Barcelo
  16. 84'R. Machado (Diego Zabala)
  17. 84'L. Acosta (T. Brizuela)
  18. 90+1'Damián Suárez
Lineups unavailable for this match.
Liverpool MontevideoCerro
0.9
Goals/game
1.4
1.3
Conceded/game
0.6

AI match analysis

Liverpool Montevideo win
58%
Draw
26%
Cerro win
16%
39.1%BTTS
35%Over 2.5
25.9%Liverpool Montevideo clean sheet
47.2%Cerro clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-0

The recent form for Liverpool Montevideo suggests a strong home advantage, despite mixed results, as they have recorded significant victories at home. However, Cerro's recent successes against Liverpool, including three wins in the last five encounters, indicates they possess the psychological edge. While the statistics point to a favorable outcome for Liverpool Montevideo, the head-to-head record reflects a competitive challenge.

  • Liverpool Montevideo ranked 4th with 100 points from 61 matches
  • Cerro ranked 6th, struggling with only 9 points from 7 matches
  • Recent head-to-head favoring Cerro with recent 4-1 and 1-0 wins
AI ConfidenceHigh confidence
93/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Liverpool Montevideo

  • Poor recent formLiverpool Montevideo

    Liverpool Montevideo have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.

    2W 0D 3L
  • Good recent formCerro

    Cerro have won 4 of their last 5 matches.

    4W 0D 1L
  • Sharper attackCerro

    Cerro are averaging 1.4 goals scored per game over their recent matches.

    1.4/game
  • Tighter defenseCerro

    Cerro are conceding just 0.6 goals per game over their recent matches.

    0.6/game conceded

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

  • AI and market are closely aligned

    The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pickExact score missed

We picked Liverpool Montevideo at 58% — final result was Liverpool Montevideo win, Liverpool Montevideo 4-0 Cerro.

Predicted score was 1-0.

This was a high confidence pick (93/100) — and it paid off.

Closing odds vs. our model

Liverpool Montevideo ✓1.60market 62.4% · model 58%
Draw3.50market 28.6% · model 26%
Cerro5.39market 18.6% · model 16%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

  • Liverpool Montevideo have averaged 0.9 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Cerro have averaged 1.4 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

1Liverpool Montevideo wins
3Draws
4Cerro wins
6-11Goals
Liverpool Montevideo
0–1Jul 21, 2024, 1:00 PM
Cerro
Liverpool Montevideo
0–3Jun 3, 2024, 3:30 PM
Cerro
Cerro
1–0Jul 8, 2023, 3:00 PM
Liverpool Montevideo
Liverpool Montevideo
1–1Apr 24, 2023, 6:30 PM
Cerro
Liverpool Montevideo
1–0Aug 23, 2020, 3:30 PM
Cerro
Liverpool Montevideo
2–2Jun 5, 2019, 6:00 PM
Cerro
Cerro
1–1Feb 4, 2018, 8:00 PM
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro
2–1Mar 4, 2017, 7:30 PM
Liverpool Montevideo

Odds comparison

Match winner

Liverpool Montevideo1.60best 1.66
Draw3.50▼best 3.73
Cerro5.39▲best 5.99

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.52.16▼best 2.25
Under 2.51.63▲best 1.67

Both teams to score

Yes2.11▼best 2.20
No1.64▲best 1.67

Double chance

Liverpool Montevideo/Draw1.11best 1.17
Liverpool Montevideo/Cerro1.24▲best 1.30
Draw/Cerro2.16▼best 2.27

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.20▼best 1.20
Clean Sheet - Away — Yes4.33▲best 4.33
Clean Sheet - Home — Yes1.91best 1.91
Clean Sheet - Home — No1.80best 1.80

Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Liverpool Montevideo1.60▼ 0.02
Draw3.50▲ 0.08
Cerro5.39▲ 0.10
18 Aug – 21 Aug

Model vs market

Liverpool Montevideo win+1.1pp
AI
58%
Market
56.9%
Draw-0.1pp
AI
26%
Market
26.1%
Cerro win-0.9pp
AI
16%
Market
16.9%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

League standings

#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
1
Liverpool Montevideo
3300+99WWW
4
Cerro
3201-26LWW

Pre-match comparison

0.9Goals scored per game1.4
1.3Goals conceded per game0.6

Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.

When do they score?

Liverpool Montevideo

0-15'
0%
16-30'
33.3%
31-45'
0%
46-60'
0%
61-75'
0%
76-90+'
66.7%

Cerro

0-15'
0%
16-30'
0%
31-45'
50%
46-60'
0%
61-75'
0%
76-90+'
50%

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Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win Liverpool Montevideo vs Cerro?+

Our AI model favors Liverpool Montevideo to win, with a 58% probability (Draw 26%, Cerro 16%).

Where is Liverpool Montevideo vs Cerro played?+

The match is played at Estadio Belvedere, Montevideo (capacity 8,384).

What time does Liverpool Montevideo vs Cerro kick off?+

Kickoff is at Aug 21, 2026, 10:00 PM (your local time, based on your device).