Loudoun United vs New Mexico United
Value found
+19.7% edgeNew Mexico United win
Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.
Match events
- 10'J. Melto Quiah
- 31'J. Melto Quiah
- 31'J. Melto Quiah
- 36'Pedro Santos (G. Lomtadze)
- 42'B. Akinyode
- 58'Justin Rennicks (L. Archimède)
- 58'N. Reid-Stephen (Tyler Blackett)
- 68'G. Hurst (C. Nava)
- 68'J. LaCava (C. Wilkerson)
- 71'J. Murphy (Marcos Dias)
- 76'J. Erlandson (Akil Watts)
- 78'K. Awuah
- 88'K. Shakes
- 90+2'L. Archimède
- 0.8
- Goals/game
- 2.1
- 1.5
- Conceded/game
- 1.4
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 1-2
The data suggests that New Mexico United enters this match with significant momentum, having won their last five outings. In contrast, Loudoun United struggles at home, boasting just one victory in eleven attempts this season. Historically, New Mexico has performed well against Loudoun, which further indicates a challenging match for the home side. Therefore, the numbers appear to favor an away victory.
- New Mexico United has won their last 5 matches, showing strong current form.
- Loudoun United has a poor home record this season with only 1 win in 11 matches.
- Historically, New Mexico United has a favorable head-to-head record against Loudoun United.
- Loudoun United averages only 0.8 goals scored per match in their last 10 games.
Confidence is moderate because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors New Mexico United
- Poor recent formLoudoun United
Loudoun United have lost 4 of their last 5 matches.
0W 1D 4L - Good recent formNew Mexico United
New Mexico United have won 4 of their last 5 matches.
4W 0D 1L - Sharper attackNew Mexico United
New Mexico United are averaging 2.1 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
2.1/game - Higher league positionNew Mexico United
New Mexico United sit 9 places above Loudoun United in the table.
#1 vs #10
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 42% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
How did our prediction do?
We picked New Mexico United at 42% — final result was a draw, Loudoun United 0-0 New Mexico United.
Predicted score was 1-2.
The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (67/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Loudoun United have averaged 0.8 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- New Mexico United have averaged 2.1 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Over 2.5 goals landed in 1 of the last 3 meetings between these two sides.
- Both teams scored in 1 of the last 3 head-to-head matches.
Head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
Odds comparison
Match winner
Total goals (2.5 line)
Both teams to score
Double chance
Clean sheet
Average and best price across 10 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 |  Loudoun United | 20 | 3 | 11 | 6 | -9 | 20 | DLWW |
| 1 |  New Mexico United | 19 | 11 | 4 | 4 | +10 | 37 | DWWW |
Pre-match comparison
Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.
Referee
E. Lezama
Based on 2 matches officiated (our own data).
When do they score?
New Mexico United
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Birmingham LegionFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Loudoun United vs New Mexico United?+
Our AI model favors New Mexico United to win, with a 42% probability (Draw 26%, Loudoun United 32%).
What time does Loudoun United vs New Mexico United kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 22, 2026, 10:30 PM (your local time, based on your device).