Ludogorets vs Slavia Sofia — First League

First League· Regular Season - 6

Ludogorets

1–1Full-time

Slavia Sofia

LLWWWWGoals 9-81st in league

LDLLWWGoals 10-139th in league

Home3W 1D 0L(6-2)

Away1W 1D 1L(4-2)

Huvepharma Arena, Razgrad · Capacity 10,422 · grass · Referee: M. Grebencharski

Value found

+2% edge

Slavia Sofia win

8.33AI fair odds

8.50Bookmaker odds

+2%Value

Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.

Today

Lineups~1h before

Kickoff

Half-time

Full-time

Match events

7'N. Savic
15'Rwan Cruz
20'Rwan Cruz
25'F. Kaloč (Kwadwo Duah)
26'E. Stoev
33'Edvin Kurtulus
41'Kwadwo Duah
46'N. Savic (Lazar Marin)
46'Deroy Duarte (P. Stanić)
46'Joel Andersson (Son)
48'V. Nikolov
53'D. Burov (J. Semedo)
55'P. Stanić
63'K. Stoyanov
72'E. Stoev (V. Kazaldzhiev)
73'R. Raychev (M. Dosso)
78'A. Salido Tajero (Caio Vidal)
79'V. Miletić
80'Ivajlo Chochev
83'K. Stoyanov (Y. Bornosuzov)
84'Aguibou Camara (Hossam Abdelmaguid)
90'Diego

Lineups unavailable for this match.

LudogoretsSlavia Sofia

0.9
Goals/game: 1.0; 0.8
Conceded/game: 1.3

AI match analysis

Ludogorets win

69%

Draw

19%

Slavia Sofia win

12%

39.6%BTTS

32.3%Over 2.5

40.7%Ludogorets clean sheet

33.3%Slavia Sofia clean sheet

Predicted score: 2-0

Data suggests that Ludogorets is in strong form, having won their last five matches, including a perfect home record this season. Meanwhile, Slavia Sofia's inconsistent performance, with three losses in their last five, presents a challenge as they face a historically dominant opponent. The numbers indicate a favorable outlook for Ludogorets, particularly given their strong home advantage.

Ludogorets unbeaten in last 5 matches, winning all but one
Ludogorets has a perfect home record this season (3 wins from 3)
Slavia Sofia has lost 3 of its last 5 matches, with an average of 1.3 goals conceded per game
Ludogorets has historically dominated the recent head-to-heads, winning 3 of the last 4 encounters

AI ConfidenceHigh confidence

100/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Ludogorets

Strong home recordLudogorets
Ludogorets have won 3 of their last 4 home matches.
3/4 home wins
Weak away recordSlavia Sofia
Slavia Sofia have won 1 of their last 3 away matches.
1/3 away wins
Higher league positionLudogorets
Ludogorets sit 8 places above Slavia Sofia in the table.
#1 vs #9
Good recent formLudogorets
Ludogorets have won 4 of their last 5 matches.
4W 0D 1L

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pickExact score missed

We picked Ludogorets at 69% — final result was a draw, Ludogorets 1-1 Slavia Sofia.

Predicted score was 2-0.

This was a high confidence pick (100/100) that didn't come through — a reminder that no forecast is guaranteed.

Closing odds vs. our model

Ludogorets1.32market 75.6% · model 69%

Draw ✓4.74market 21.1% · model 19%

Slavia Sofia8.50market 11.8% · model 12%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

Ludogorets have averaged 0.9 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Slavia Sofia have averaged 1 goal scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

6Ludogorets wins

1Draws

1Slavia Sofia wins

15-6Goals

Ludogorets

1–1Dec 8, 2025, 3:30 PM

Slavia Sofia

0–3Aug 9, 2025, 6:15 PM

Ludogorets

2–0Dec 1, 2024, 3:30 PM

Slavia Sofia

0–1Sep 18, 2024, 2:30 PM

Ludogorets

2–3Nov 27, 2023, 1:15 PM

Slavia Sofia

0–2Nov 2, 2023, 4:00 PM

Ludogorets

2–1Feb 19, 2023, 3:45 PM

Slavia Sofia

1–2Nov 26, 2022, 1:00 PM

Ludogorets

Odds comparison

Match winner

Ludogorets1.32best 1.37

Draw4.74▼best 5.25

Slavia Sofia8.50▲best 10.00

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.66▲best 1.69

Under 2.52.14▼best 2.20

Both teams to score

Yes1.96best 2.02

No1.74best 1.83

Double chance

Ludogorets/Draw1.05best 1.10

Ludogorets/Slavia Sofia1.14▼best 1.18

Draw/Slavia Sofia3.12▲best 3.30

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.80▼best 1.80

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes1.91▲best 1.91

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.08▲best 1.08

Clean Sheet - Away — Yes8.00▼best 8.00

Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Ludogorets1.32▲ 0.01

Draw4.74▼ 0.05

Slavia Sofia8.50▼ 0.25

19 Aug – 22 Aug

Model vs market

Ludogorets win-0.7pp

69%

Market

69.7%

Draw-0.5pp

19%

Market

19.5%

Slavia Sofia win+1.2pp

12%

Market

10.8%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.