Lyon vs Sparta Praha

UEFA Champions League· 3rd Qualifying Round

Lyon

3–0Full-time

Sparta Praha

DWLDWLGoals 16-14

WLWLWWGoals 20-7

Match events

20'Ernest Nuamah
34'Adam Ševinský
37'Andy Irving (J. Zelený)
54'Ainsley Maitland-Niles
64'J. Brunes (E. Singhateh)
65'Roman Macek (S. Eneme)
66'Ainsley Maitland-Niles (Corentin Tolisso)
73'Tyler Morton
74'J. Mercado (V. Vitalyos)
75'A. Karabec (H. Sochurek)
77'Ainsley Maitland-Niles (Clinton Mata)
77'Ernest Nuamah (Kaïl Boudache)
85'Malick Fofana (J. Duranville)
85'Abner Vinícius (Mohamed Ouédraogo)
88'Corentin Tolisso (Noah Nartey)
90'M. Rynes

Lineups

Lyon

Sparta Praha

4-2-3-1

Paulo FonsecaCoach

Brian Priske

AI match analysis

Lyon win

67%

Draw

19%

Sparta Praha win

14%

55.9%BTTS

54.2%Over 2.5

18.3%Lyon clean sheet

31.7%Sparta Praha clean sheet

Predicted score: 2-1

Data suggests Lyon has struggled recently, losing four of their last five matches despite scoring well in some. In contrast, Sparta Praha has exhibited a solid defense, averaging only 0.6 goals conceded in their last ten matches. However, Lyon's strong head-to-head record against Sparta Praha could provide them with an edge in this matchup.

Lyon has lost 4 out of their last 5 matches.
Sparta Praha has a strong defensive record, conceding only 0.6 goals per game in their last 10 matches.
Lyon has historically performed well against Sparta Praha, winning both recent encounters.

AI ConfidenceHigh confidence

86/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and some historical data (form, H2H or standings) is still incomplete.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Lyon

Historical edgeLyon
Lyon have won 2 of the last 2 meetings between these two teams.
2/2 H2H wins
Tighter defenseSparta Praha
Sparta Praha are conceding just 0.7 goals per game over their recent matches.
0.7/game conceded
Poor recent formLyon
Lyon have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
1W 1D 3L
Good recent formSparta Praha
Sparta Praha have won 4 of their last 5 matches.
4W 0D 1L

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pickExact score missed

We picked Lyon at 67% — final result was Lyon win, Lyon 3-0 Sparta Praha.

Predicted score was 2-1.

This was a high confidence pick (86/100) — and it paid off.

Closing odds vs. our model

Lyon ✓1.33market 75% · model 67%

Draw5.39market 18.5% · model 19%

Sparta Praha7.68market 13% · model 14%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

Lyon have averaged 1.6 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Sparta Praha have averaged 2 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.

Head-to-head

Last 2 meetings

2Lyon wins

0Draws

0Sparta Praha wins

7-3Goals

Lyon

3–0Nov 4, 2021, 5:45 PM

Sparta Praha

3–4Oct 21, 2021, 7:00 PM

Lyon

Odds comparison

Match winner

Lyon1.33▼best 1.37

Draw5.39▲best 5.78

Sparta Praha7.68▲best 8.70

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.45▼best 1.50

Under 2.52.65▲best 2.81

Both teams to score

Yes1.70▼best 1.80

No2.04▲best 2.20

Double chance

Lyon/Draw1.08▼best 1.11

Lyon/Sparta Praha1.14▼best 1.17

Draw/Sparta Praha3.17▲best 3.40

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.06▼best 1.06

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.62▼best 1.62

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes2.20▲best 2.20

Clean Sheet - Away — Yes8.00▲best 8.00

Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Lyon1.33▼ 0.16

Draw5.39▲ 1.13

Sparta Praha7.68▲ 2.08

9 Aug – 11 Aug

Model vs market

Lyon win-3.4pp

AI

67%

Market

70.4%

Draw+1.6pp

AI

19%

Market

17.4%

Sparta Praha win+1.8pp

AI

14%

Market

12.2%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

Pre-match comparison

1.6Goals scored per game2

1.4Goals conceded per game0.7

Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.

Referee

S. Marciniak

3.55Yellow cards / game

0.18Red cards / game

0.36Penalties scored / game

Based on 11 matches officiated (our own data).

When do they score?

Lyon

0-15'

0%

16-30'

0%

31-45'

16.7%

46-60'

0%

61-75'

66.7%

76-90+'

16.7%

Sparta Praha

0-15'

25%

16-30'

0%

31-45'

37.5%

46-60'

12.5%

61-75'

12.5%

76-90+'

12.5%

Match statistics

56%Possession44%

—Expected goals (xG)—

11Shots on target1

19Total shots6

5Shots off target3

3Blocked shots2

11Shots inside the box3

8Shots outside the box3

7Corners1

2Offsides1

20Fouls14

1Yellow cards1

0Red cards1

1Goalkeeper saves8

506Total passes398

435Accurate passes329

86%Pass accuracy83%

Player ratings

1Tyler MortonLyon⚽ 18.7
2Corentin TolissoLyon🅰️ 18.3
3Ainsley Maitland-NilesLyon⚽ 1🟨7.6
4Abner ViníciusLyon7.6
5Moussa NiakhatéLyon7.5
6Ernest NuamahLyon⚽ 17.5

Box score

Lyon

23Tyler MortonM · 94'

⚽ 18.7

More stats

Shots2/3 on target

Passes55%

Tackles1

Duels—

6Tanner TessmannM · 94'

7.0

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes24%

Tackles1

Duels—

11Malick FofanaM · 85'

6.6

More stats

Shots4/4 on target

Passes26%

Tackles1

Duels—

98Ainsley Maitland-NilesD · 76'

⚽ 1🟨7.6

More stats

Shots1/1 on target

Passes33%

Tackles2

Duels—

1Dominik GreifG · 94'

6.9

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes19%

Tackles—

Duels—

21Ruben KluivertD · 94'

7.2

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes56%

Tackles3

Duels—

19Moussa NiakhatéD · 94'

7.5

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes84%

Tackles2

Duels—

8Corentin Tolisso (C)M · 88'

🅰️ 18.3

More stats

Shots1/3 on target

Passes35%

Tackles3

Duels—

16Abner ViníciusD · 85'

7.6

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes55%

Tackles1

Duels—

17Loïs OpendaF · 94'

6.2

More stats

Shots1/2 on target

Passes8%

Tackles—

Duels—

7Ernest NuamahM · 76'

⚽ 17.5

More stats

Shots1/2 on target

Passes16%

Tackles3

Duels—

Bench (11)

22Clinton MataD · 18'

6.6

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes13%

Tackles1

Duels—

39Mathys de CarvalhoM

—

40Rémy DescampsG

—

45Rémi HimbertF

—

26Kaïl BoudacheF · 18'

6.6

More stats

Shots1/1 on target

Passes4%

Tackles—

Duels—

37Steeve KangoD

—

99Noah NarteyM · 6'

—

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes—

Tackles1

Duels—

25Justin BenguiG

—

85Noham KamaraD

—

76Mohamed OuédraogoD · 9'

6.7

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes6%

Tackles—

Duels—

24

24J. DuranvilleF · 9'

6.7

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes1%

Tackles1

Duels—

Sparta Praha

10A. KarabecM · 73'

6.0

More stats

Shots0/1 on target

Passes14%

Tackles—

Duels—

7Josimar AlcócerM · 94'

6.7

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes21%

Tackles1

Duels—

28Roman MacekM · 63'

6.9

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes35%

Tackles2

Duels—

44Jakub SurovčíkG · 94'

7.3

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes24%

Tackles—

Duels—

2

2M. SuchomelD · 94'

5.7

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes21%

Tackles—

Duels—

19Adam ŠevinskýD · 34'

🟥5.3

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes25%

Tackles—

Duels—

25

25A. Sorensen (C)D · 94'

6.6

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes55%

Tackles2

Duels—

11

11M. RynesD · 94'

🟨6.3

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes48%

Tackles3

Duels—

18Andy IrvingM · 37'

6.5

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes15%

Tackles—

Duels—

17

17J. MercadoM · 74'

6.9

More stats

Shots0/1 on target

Passes11%

Tackles1

Duels—

14J. BrunesF · 63'

6.5

More stats

Shots0/1 on target

Passes5%

Tackles—

Duels—

Bench (13)

3Pavel KadeřábekD

—

21

21J. GrimaldoF

—

30

30J. ZelenýD · 57'

6.2

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes14%

Tackles—

Duels—

47

47K. HegyiG

—

54Lukas FrancG

—

15Viktor VitályosD · 20'

6.6

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes8%

Tackles—

Duels—

5

5S. EnemeM · 31'

6.7

More stats

Shots1/1 on target

Passes18%

Tackles2

Duels—

38

38H. SochurekM · 21'

6.6

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes10%

Tackles1

Duels—

24

24D. HollýM

—

27

27E. SinghatehM · 31'

6.5

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes5%

Tackles—

Duels—

29M. VojtaF

—

36Garang KuolM

—

15

15V. Vitalyos—

—

Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win Lyon vs Sparta Praha?+

Our AI model favors Lyon to win, with a 67% probability (Draw 19%, Sparta Praha 14%).

What time does Lyon vs Sparta Praha kick off?+

Kickoff is at Aug 11, 2026, 7:00 PM (your local time, based on your device).

Value found

Match events

Lineups

AI match analysis

Why AI favors Lyon

What could change the prediction

How did our prediction do?

Closing odds vs. our model

Match trends

Head-to-head

Odds comparison

Match winner

Total goals (2.5 line)

Both teams to score

Double chance

Clean sheet

Match winner — odds movement

Model vs market

Pre-match comparison

Referee

When do they score?

Match statistics

Player ratings

Box score

Lyon

Sparta Praha

Frequently asked questions