Maheshate vs Darrius Flowers

UFC· Road to UFC Season 5: Semifinals· Lightweight· Main Event
LLWL
10-4-0 (W-L-D)4 KO, 1 SUB
Ht 183cmWt 70kgReach 182cmStance Orthodox
UFC Performance Institute Shanghai
LLL
Beast Mode12-8-1 (W-L-D)7 KO, 2 SUB
Ht 175cmWt 77kgReach 180cmStance Orthodox
Uprising MMA
Kicks off in

Value found

+17.2% edge

Darrius Flowers win

2.27AI fair odds
2.66Bookmaker odds
+17.2%Value

Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.

Today
Fight time
In Progress
Result

AI fight analysis

Maheshate win
56%
Darrius Flowers win
44%

Data suggests a competitive matchup between Maheshate and Darrius Flowers. Maheshate's height and reach advantages may provide him with an edge in striking distance, but Flowers possesses a greater finishing ability, having achieved more knockouts in his career. Despite Maheshate's recent victories, the overall records indicate a closely contested fight, with Maheshate having a slight statistical edge.

  • Maheshate has a height advantage of 8cm and a reach advantage of 2cm over Flowers.
  • Flowers has a higher finishing rate with 7 of his 12 wins coming by KO/TKO, whereas Maheshate has only 4 finishes.
  • Maheshate's recent wins include defeating Gabriel Benitez and Steve Garcia, indicating some current form despite past setbacks.
AI ConfidenceModerate confidence
69/100

Confidence is moderate because the win-probability gap between the two fighters is moderate, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and both fighters' career records and recent fight history are available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Maheshate

  • More experiencedDarrius Flowers

    Darrius Flowers has fought 21 professional fights, 7 more than their opponent tonight.

    21 pro fights
  • High finishing rateDarrius Flowers

    Darrius Flowers has finished 9 of 12 career wins by knockout or submission, a 75% finish rate.

    75% finish rate
  • Reach advantageMaheshate

    Maheshate has a 2cm reach advantage over their opponent, a real edge in striking exchanges at range.

    182cm reach
  • Superior career recordMaheshate

    Maheshate carries a 10-4 professional record, a 71% win rate.

    10-4

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

  • Close matchup

    The model gives the favorite only a 56% probability, so this is a closely-matched fight and confidence remains moderate.

Odds comparison

Moneyline

Maheshate1.45best 1.48AI 56%
Darrius Flowers2.66best 2.79AI 44%

Average price across 3 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Moneyline — odds movement

Maheshate1.45 0.04
Darrius Flowers2.66 0.17
26 Aug27 Aug

Model vs market

Maheshate win-8.7pp
AI
56%
Market
64.7%
Darrius Flowers win+8.7pp
AI
44%
Market
35.3%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

More UFC predictions

Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win Maheshate vs Darrius Flowers?+

Our AI model favors Maheshate to win, with a 56% probability (Darrius Flowers 44%).

What time does Maheshate vs Darrius Flowers start?+

This fight is scheduled for Aug 28, 2026, 9:00 AM (your local time, based on your device).

What are the career records of Maheshate and Darrius Flowers?+

Maheshate is 10-4-0 (W-L-D). Darrius Flowers is 12-8-1 (W-L-D).