Monarcas vs Correcaminos Uat — Liga de Expansión MX

Liga de Expansión MX· Apertura - 5

Monarcas

1–3Full-time

Correcaminos Uat

WLLWWWGoals 14-125th in league

DDLLLLGoals 13-212nd in league

Home2W 0D 1L(9-6)

Away2W 1D 0L(9-5)

Today

Lineups~1h before

Kickoff

Half-time

Full-time

Match events

5'D. Aguilar
5'D. Aguilar
15'Diego de Buen
15'Hector Uribe
22'D. Zamora
29'Raúl Torres
33'T. Sandoval (Hector Uribe)
45+6'Josecarlos van Rankin (A. Flores)
46'V. Lopez (M. Rodríguez)
58'D. Mina (B. Mendoza)
58'W. Guzmán
60'D. Aguilar (Misael Domínguez)
66'B. Mendoza (W. Guzmán)
74'O. Islas (W. Guzmán)
75'Raúl Sandoval (E. Castellanos)
75'M. Nambo (P. Romero)
78'Gerardo Moreno (C. Sosa)
78'Hector Uribe (N. Gomez Del Rosal)
78'T. Sandoval (J. Zapata)
82'O. Islas (R. Arce)
88'J. Zapata
90+4'A. Flores

Lineups unavailable for this match.

MonarcasCorrecaminos Uat

1.4
Goals/game: 1.3; 1.2
Conceded/game: 2.1

AI match analysis

Monarcas win

58%

Draw

22%

Correcaminos Uat win

20%

59%BTTS

57.7%Over 2.5

28.7%Monarcas clean sheet

17.4%Correcaminos Uat clean sheet

Predicted score: 2-1

Data suggests that Monarcas are in strong form, having won both of their home games this season. Correcaminos Uat, on the other hand, have struggled recently, with four losses in their last five matches. Historically, Monarcas maintain a positive record against Correcaminos, which may contribute to their advantage in this matchup.

Monarcas have won all 2 home matches this season
Correcaminos Uat have lost 4 of their last 5 matches
Monarcas unbeaten against Correcaminos in their last 5 meetings

AI ConfidenceHigh confidence

96/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Monarcas

Good recent formMonarcas
Monarcas have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
3W 0D 2L
Poor recent formCorrecaminos Uat
Correcaminos Uat have lost 5 of their last 5 matches.
0W 0D 5L
Strong home recordMonarcas
Monarcas have won 2 of their last 3 home matches.
2/3 home wins
Strong away recordCorrecaminos Uat
Correcaminos Uat have won 2 of their last 3 away matches.
2/3 away wins

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pickExact score missed

We picked Monarcas at 58% — final result was Correcaminos Uat win, Monarcas 1-3 Correcaminos Uat.

Predicted score was 2-1.

This was a high confidence pick (96/100) that didn't come through — a reminder that no forecast is guaranteed.

Closing odds vs. our model

Monarcas1.62market 61.6% · model 58%

Draw4.00market 25% · model 22%

Correcaminos Uat ✓4.46market 22.4% · model 20%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

Monarcas have averaged 1.4 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Correcaminos Uat have averaged 1.3 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

4Monarcas wins

2Draws

2Correcaminos Uat wins

13-11Goals

Monarcas

3–0Jan 11, 2026, 1:00 AM

Correcaminos Uat

1–1Aug 2, 2025, 1:00 AM

Monarcas

3–2Mar 29, 2025, 11:00 PM

Correcaminos Uat

3–0Oct 11, 2024, 1:00 AM

Monarcas

Correcaminos Uat

3–1Feb 21, 2024, 3:05 AM

Monarcas

2–0Aug 13, 2023, 11:05 PM

Correcaminos Uat

1–1Feb 9, 2022, 1:05 AM

Monarcas

2–1Aug 27, 2021, 2:00 AM

Correcaminos Uat

Odds comparison

Match winner

Monarcas1.62▼best 1.81

Draw4.00▲best 4.33

Correcaminos Uat4.46▲best 4.80

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.51▼best 1.60

Under 2.52.37▲best 2.57

Both teams to score

Yes1.55▲best 1.58

No2.25▼best 2.30

Double chance

Monarcas/Draw1.17▼best 1.25

Monarcas/Correcaminos Uat1.19▼best 1.22

Draw/Correcaminos Uat2.12▲best 2.30

Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Monarcas1.62▼ 0.18

Draw4.00▲ 0.10

Correcaminos Uat4.46▲ 0.56

18 Aug – 21 Aug

Model vs market

Monarcas win+1.5pp

58%

Market

56.5%

Draw-0.9pp

22%

Market

22.9%

Correcaminos Uat win-0.6pp

20%

Market

20.6%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.