Nacional vs Estoril
Match events
- 12'Xeka
- 33'Xeka
- 33'Xeka
- 51'Matheus Dias
- 63'A. Lacximicant (T. Brito)
- 63'R. Guitane (F. Garcia)
- 66'Miguel Baeza (Deivison Souza Brito)
- 66'Matheus Dias (Stavros Gavriel)
- 68'Ze Vitor (Léo Santos)
- 75'Ricard Sánchez (P. Carvalho)
- 75'Fernando Medrano (G. Costa)
- 77'Léo Santos (Daniel)
- 79'Filipe Soares
- 81'Daniel (D. I. de la Cruz)
- 82'Ismael Sierra Arnal
- 85'Ferro
- 85'Antef Tsoungui (Jandro Orellana)
- 88'Pablo Messias Cardozo (Joel Silva)
Lineups
- 0.8
- Goals/game
- 1.5
- 1.7
- Conceded/game
- 1.5
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 1-2
The data suggests a competitive matchup with Estoril having a slight edge, evidenced by their recent form and head-to-head results. Nacional struggles to secure victories, while Estoril has been more effective in scoring. The expected scoreline reflects Estoril's recent performance, which favors them marginally over Nacional.
- Estoril unbeaten in their last 5 matches against Nacional
- Nacional has not won in their last 5 matches
- Estoril averages 1.7 goals scored per game compared to Nacional's 1.1
- Both teams have drawn their most recent league match.
Confidence is high because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Estoril
- Poor recent formNacional
Nacional have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
0W 2D 3L - Sharper attackEstoril
Estoril are averaging 1.5 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
1.5/game - Higher league positionNacional
Nacional sit 7 places above Estoril in the table.
#8 vs #15 - Tighter defenseEstoril
Estoril are conceding just 1.5 goals per game over their recent matches.
1.5/game conceded
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
- Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 38% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Estoril at 38% — final result was Nacional win, Nacional 2-0 Estoril.
Predicted score was 1-2.
The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (71/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Nacional have averaged 0.8 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Estoril have averaged 1.5 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
- Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.
Head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
Nacional
EstorilEstorilNacionalEstorilNacionalEstorilNacionalNacionalEstorilNacionalEstorilEstorilNacionalNacionalEstorilOdds comparison
Match winner
Total goals (2.5 line)
Both teams to score
Double chance
Clean sheet
Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
League standings
Pre-match comparison
Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.
Referee
B. J. Costa
Based on 1 matches officiated (our own data).
When do they score?
Nacional
More Primeira Liga predictions
Rio Ave
Sporting CP
Arouca
Maritimo
Alverca
Santa Clara
Academico Viseu
FC PortoFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Nacional vs Estoril?+
Our AI model favors Estoril to win, with a 38% probability (Draw 29%, Nacional 33%).
What time does Nacional vs Estoril kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 16, 2026, 2:30 PM (your local time, based on your device).