Nasaf vs Pakhtakor
Match events
- 15'A. Davronov
- 30'O. Rustamov
- 45+5'D. Khamdamov
- 46'A. Komilov (G. Gaybullaev)
- 46'Z. Abdirakhmatov (D. Abdunazarov)
- 48'S. Mukhitdinov
- 52'S. Sabirkhodjaev
- 55'D. Abdunazarov
- 67'D. Khamdamov (K. Erkinov)
- 67'B. Resan (O. Bozorov)
- 72'O. Rustamov (B. Rahmatov)
- 72'O. Bozorov
- 78'A. Shala (Y. Otubanjo)
- 78'S. Bakhromov (A. Gulomov)
- 78'S. Chinedu (Morteza Pouraliganji)
- 88'G. Gaybullaev
- 88'Flamarion (I. Ibrokhimov)
- 0.4
- Goals/game
- 1.8
- 0.9
- Conceded/game
- 0.4
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 0-1
The numbers favor Pakhtakor, who not only have a strong away record this season but also remain unbeaten in their last 7 matches on the road. Nasaf's struggle in front of goal is evident, averaging just 0.5 goals scored per game in their last 10 matches, which could hinder their chances against a solid Pakhtakor defense. Head-to-head history further supports Pakhtakor, who have not lost to Nasaf in recent meetings.
- Pakhtakor unbeaten in 7 away matches this season
- Nasaf has averaged only 0.5 goals scored in their last 10 games
- Pakhtakor's away defense has only conceded 0.3 goals per game lately
- Historically, Pakhtakor has not lost to Nasaf in their last 5 encounters.
Confidence is high because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Pakhtakor
- Sharper attackPakhtakor
Pakhtakor are averaging 1.8 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
1.8/game - Strong recent formPakhtakor
Pakhtakor are unbeaten in their last 5 matches, including 2 wins.
2W 3D 0L - Weak home recordNasaf
Nasaf have won 3 of their last 9 home matches.
3/9 home wins - Strong away recordPakhtakor
Pakhtakor have won 6 of their last 9 away matches.
6/9 away wins
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
- Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 39% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Pakhtakor at 38.66% — final result was Pakhtakor win, Nasaf 1-2 Pakhtakor.
Predicted score was 0-1.
The model itself only flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (72/100) — a closer call that happened to land right.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Nasaf have averaged 0.4 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Pakhtakor have averaged 1.8 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Over 2.5 goals landed in 1 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
- Both teams scored in 2 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.
Head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
Pakhtakor
NasafNasafPakhtakorNasafPakhtakorPakhtakorNasafPakhtakorNasafNasafPakhtakorPakhtakorNasafNasafPakhtakorOdds comparison
Match winner
Total goals (2.5 line)
Both teams to score
Double chance
Average and best price across 11 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
League standings
Pre-match comparison
Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.
When do they score?
Pakhtakor
More Super League predictions
Frequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Nasaf vs Pakhtakor?+
Our AI model favors Pakhtakor to win, with a 38.66% probability (Draw 29.46%, Nasaf 31.88%).
What time does Nasaf vs Pakhtakor kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 16, 2026, 2:00 PM (your local time, based on your device).