New England Patriots vs Indianapolis Colts — NFL

NFL· Week 1

New England Patriots

13–13Full-time

Indianapolis Colts

WWLDWLPoints 225-170

LLLDLLPoints 180-278

Home12W 1D 7L(497-395)

Away6W 1D 13L(470-505)

Gillette Stadium

Value found

+37.7% edge

New England Patriots win

1.61AI fair odds

2.22Bookmaker odds

+37.7%Value

Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.

Today

Kickoff

In Progress

Final

Score by quarter

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
New England Patriots	3	7	3	0	13
Indianapolis Colts	0	7	0	6	13

AI match analysis

New England Patriots win

62%

Draw

Indianapolis Colts win

38%

Predicted score: 27-17

The numbers suggest that the New England Patriots have a strong advantage going into this matchup, having averaged 26.5 points scored while allowing only 16.9 points conceded in their last 10 matches. In contrast, the Indianapolis Colts have struggled defensively, conceding an average of 27.2 points during the same period. Historically, recent encounters favor the Patriots, with their last head-to-head showing a decisive 38-24 victory.

New England Patriots scored an average of 26.5 points in their last 10 matches
Indianapolis Colts conceded an average of 27.2 points in their last 10 matches
Patriots have won 4 of their last 5 games at home
The last head-to-head matchup favored the Patriots 38-24.

AI ConfidenceModerate confidence

60/100

Confidence is moderate because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and some historical data (form, H2H or standings) is still incomplete.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors New England Patriots

Poor recent formIndianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts have lost 4 of their last 5 matches.
0W 1D 4L
Tighter defenseNew England Patriots
New England Patriots are conceding just 17 points per game over their recent matches.
17/game conceded
Historical edgeIndianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts have won 3 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.
3/5 H2H wins

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pickExact score missed

We picked New England Patriots at 62% — final result was a draw, New England Patriots 13-13 Indianapolis Colts.

Predicted score was 27-17.

The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (60/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.

Closing odds vs. our model

Indianapolis Colts1.67market 59.9% · model 38%

New England Patriots2.22market 45% · model 62%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

New England Patriots have averaged 22.5 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Indianapolis Colts have averaged 18 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
New England Patriots are unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 meetings with Indianapolis Colts.

Odds comparison

Moneyline

New England Patriots2.22best 2.35AI 62%

Indianapolis Colts1.67best 1.76AI 38%

Point spread

Line	New England Patriots	Indianapolis Colts
-2	1.92	1.90
-1.5	1.94	1.84
-1	1.91	1.92
+1	2.02	1.80
+1.5	1.92	1.83
+2	1.94	1.88
+2.5	1.93	1.86
+3	1.86	1.97

Total points

Line	Over	Under
35.5	1.73	2.02
36.5	1.82	1.94
37	1.92	1.92
37.5	1.93	1.84
38	1.91	1.92
38.5	1.92	1.85
39	1.94	1.90
39.5	2.02	1.72

Average price across 11 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Model vs market

New England Patriots win+19.1pp

62%

Market

42.9%

Indianapolis Colts win-19.1pp

38%

Market

57.1%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.