New Mexico United vs FC Tulsa
Match events
- 27'L. Dorsey
- 60'Ian (A. Clarke)
- 60'Arquimides Ordonez (Giordano Colli)
- 75'L. Dorsey (R. Cabral)
- 75'B. Sparks (S. Lukic)
- 79'J. Melto Quiah (D. Harris)
- 81'A. Clarke
- 83'G. Hurst
- 84'J. Webber (William Wilson)
- 86'G. Hurst (Justin Rennicks)
- 86'N. Reid-Stephen (Tyler Blackett)
- 90+2'C. Gloster (C. Wilkerson)
- 90+2'V. Noel (L. Archimède)
- 2.0
- Goals/game
- 1.9
- 1.4
- Conceded/game
- 0.3
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 2-1
Data suggests a competitive matchup as New Mexico United enters in solid form with five consecutive wins. While FC Tulsa has historically performed well against New Mexico, the latter's strong home record could be a decisive factor, potentially leading to a narrow home win.
- New Mexico United unbeaten in last 5 games
- FC Tulsa has won 3 of last 5 matchups against New Mexico United
- New Mexico United has a strong home record of 5W 2D 1L
Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is moderate, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors New Mexico United
- Historical edgeFC Tulsa
FC Tulsa have won 3 of the last 7 meetings between these two teams.
3/7 H2H wins - Strong home recordNew Mexico United
New Mexico United have won 7 of their last 10 home matches.
7/10 home wins - Strong away recordFC Tulsa
FC Tulsa have won 4 of their last 9 away matches.
4/9 away wins - Sharper attackNew Mexico United
New Mexico United are averaging 2 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
2/game
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
- Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 44% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
How did our prediction do?
We picked New Mexico United at 43.65% — final result was New Mexico United win, New Mexico United 1-0 FC Tulsa.
Predicted score was 2-1.
This was a high confidence pick (78/100) — and it paid off.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- New Mexico United have averaged 2 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- FC Tulsa have averaged 1.9 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of the last 7 meetings between these two sides.
- Both teams scored in 5 of the last 7 head-to-head matches.
Head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
FC Tulsa
New Mexico UnitedNew Mexico UnitedFC TulsaFC TulsaNew Mexico UnitedFC TulsaNew Mexico UnitedNew Mexico UnitedFC TulsaNew Mexico UnitedFC TulsaFC TulsaNew Mexico UnitedOdds comparison
Match winner
Total goals (2.5 line)
Both teams to score
Double chance
Clean sheet
Average and best price across 10 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New Mexico United | 19 | 11 | 4 | 4 | +10 | 37 | DWWW |
| 4 | FC Tulsa | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | +6 | 32 | LLWW |
Pre-match comparison
Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.
Referee
E. Garcia
Based on 11 matches officiated (our own data).
When do they score?
New Mexico United
FC Tulsa
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Colorado SpringsFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win New Mexico United vs FC Tulsa?+
Our AI model favors New Mexico United to win, with a 43.65% probability (Draw 26.43%, FC Tulsa 29.92%).
What time does New Mexico United vs FC Tulsa kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 16, 2026, 1:30 AM (your local time, based on your device).