New Orleans Saints vs Jacksonville Jaguars — NFL

NFL· Week 1

New Orleans Saints

20–24Full-time

Jacksonville Jaguars

LLLLLWPoints 198-215

WWLWLWPoints 291-167

Home6W 1D 13L(391-430)

Away8W 1D 11L(407-489)

Caesars Superdome

Today

Kickoff

In Progress

Final

Score by quarter

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
New Orleans Saints	7	13	0	0	20
Jacksonville Jaguars	6	0	8	10	24

AI match analysis

New Orleans Saints win

36%

Draw

28%

Jacksonville Jaguars win

36%

Predicted score: 20-21

Data suggests that this matchup could be closely contested, with both teams averaging similar recent performance metrics. Jacksonville's high-scoring ability in the past matches, averaging over 32 points, may test the Saints' defense that has been allowing just under 20 points. Historically, the head-to-head record supports a balanced matchup, although the Jaguars have shown stronger recent form overall.

Jacksonville Jaguars scored an average of 32.2 points in their last 10 matches
New Orleans Saints have conceded an average of 19.7 points in their last 10 matches
Head-to-head record in last 5 matches is evenly split at 2 wins each
Jacksonville Jaguars have a superior scoring record compared to New Orleans Saints overall.

AI ConfidenceLow confidence

30/100

Confidence is low because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and some historical data (form, H2H or standings) is still incomplete.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors New Orleans Saints

Tighter defenseJacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars are conceding just 16.7 points per game over their recent matches.
16.7/game conceded
Historical edgeNew Orleans Saints
New Orleans Saints have won 3 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.
3/5 H2H wins

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

Below-average model confidence
Overall model confidence for this match is 30/100 — treat the prediction as directional rather than decisive.
Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 36% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pickExact score missed

We picked New Orleans Saints at 36% — final result was Jacksonville Jaguars win, New Orleans Saints 20-24 Jacksonville Jaguars.

Predicted score was 20-21.

The model itself flagged this as a low confidence pick (30/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.

Closing odds vs. our model

New Orleans Saints1.76market 56.8% · model 36%

Jacksonville Jaguars ✓2.07market 48.4% · model 36%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

New Orleans Saints have averaged 19.8 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Jacksonville Jaguars have averaged 29.1 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
New Orleans Saints are unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 meetings with Jacksonville Jaguars.

Odds comparison

Moneyline

New Orleans Saints1.76best 1.82AI 36%

Jacksonville Jaguars2.07best 2.20AI 36%

Point spread

Line	New Orleans Saints	Jacksonville Jaguars
-3	1.98	1.81
-2.5	1.83	1.92
-2	1.87	1.91
-1.5	1.85	1.93
-1	1.86	1.99
-0.5	1.82	1.88
+1	1.92	1.90
+1.5	1.84	1.93

Total points

Line	Over	Under
34.5	1.83	1.90
35	1.80	1.90
35.5	1.86	1.94
36	1.90	1.87
36.5	1.92	1.83
37	1.98	1.82
38.5	1.94	1.85
39	1.97	1.86

Average price across 10 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Model vs market

New Orleans Saints win-18pp

36%

Market

54%

Jacksonville Jaguars win-10pp

36%

Market

46%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.