Nilson Rojas vs Bilal Hasan

UFC· UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song· Flyweight· Main Event
L
W

Value found

+24.6% edge

Nilson Rojas win

5AI fair odds
6.23Bookmaker odds
+24.6%Value

Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.

Today
Fight time
In Progress
Result

AI fight analysis

Nilson Rojas win
20%
Bilal Hasan win
80%

Data suggests that Bilal Hasan is favored to win this matchup, largely due to his superior finishing ability and strong recent performance. Historically, Nilson Rojas has struggled in his recent bouts, which may impact his confidence coming into this fight.

  • Bilal Hasan has a career record of 15 wins with 10 wins by knockout or submission, showcasing his finishing ability.
  • Nilson Rojas has lost 4 out of his last 5 fights, indicating a decline in form.
  • Hasan has a significant height and reach advantage over Rojas, which may impact their striking exchanges.
AI ConfidenceModerate confidence
66/100

Confidence is moderate because the win-probability gap between the two fighters is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and this fight has limited historical data available so far.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

What could change the prediction

  • Limited professional record

    Nilson Rojas and Bilal Hasan have a thin professional fight record on file, so career-stat signals here are based on a small sample.

  • AI and market are closely aligned

    The bookmaker market and our model currently see this fight almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

Odds comparison

Moneyline

Nilson Rojas6.23best 7.30AI 20%
Bilal Hasan1.12best 1.13AI 80%

Average price across 7 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Moneyline — odds movement

Nilson Rojas6.23 1.50
Bilal Hasan1.12 0.06
23 Aug29 Aug

Model vs market

Nilson Rojas win+4.7pp
AI
20%
Market
15.3%
Bilal Hasan win-4.7pp
AI
80%
Market
84.7%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

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Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win Nilson Rojas vs Bilal Hasan?+

Our AI model favors Bilal Hasan to win, with a 80% probability (Nilson Rojas 20%).

What time does Nilson Rojas vs Bilal Hasan start?+

This fight took place on Aug 29, 2026, 10:10 AM (your local time, based on your device).