NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Gorica — HNL

HNL· Regular Season - 4

NK Slaven Belupo

2–0Full-time

HNK Gorica

LDLLLLGoals 10-248th in league

LLWLLLGoals 8-1410th in league

Home1W 0D 1L(3-4)

Away0W 0D 2L(1-5)

Today

Lineups~1h before

Kickoff

Half-time

Full-time

Match events

4'Ilija Nestorovski
18'J. Mitrović (K. Išasegi)
21'Ilija Nestorovski (D. Bosak)
27'L. Crepulja
36'A. Kavelj
46'F. Braut (K. Custovic)
60'J. Frigan (S. Kucis)
60'J. Filipović (D. Stevanović)
60'L. Bosnjak (A. Adeshina)
60'Patrik Mijić (M. Gashi)
61'L. Banovec (A. Grgić)
67'Ilija Nestorovski (M. Dabro)
84'J. Pranjic (L. Vrzic)
90+1'D. Bosak (A. Jónsson)
90+1'D. Kovačić (T. Božić)

Lineups unavailable for this match.

NK Slaven BelupoHNK Gorica

1.0
Goals/game: 0.8; 2.4
Conceded/game: 1.4

AI match analysis

NK Slaven Belupo win

35%

Draw

27%

HNK Gorica win

38%

55.8%BTTS

53.1%Over 2.5

20.2%NK Slaven Belupo clean sheet

30.1%HNK Gorica clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-2

Current data suggests a closely matched contest between NK Slaven Belupo and HNK Gorica, with both teams struggling early in the season, each having lost their last three matches. Historical matchups lean slightly in favor of NK Slaven Belupo due to their recent win against Gorica, though both teams have shown vulnerabilities defensively.

Both teams in poor form with three consecutive losses each
Home record for NK Slaven Belupo shows 1 loss and a -8 goal difference
HNK Gorica has underperformed away with a -5 goal difference
Historical head-to-head shows equal competitiveness, but recent match favored NK Slaven Belupo.

AI ConfidenceModerate confidence

68/100

Confidence is moderate because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors HNK Gorica

Tighter defenseHNK Gorica
HNK Gorica are conceding just 1.4 goals per game over their recent matches.
1.4/game conceded
Historical edgeNK Slaven Belupo
NK Slaven Belupo have won 5 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams.
5/8 H2H wins
Sharper attackNK Slaven Belupo
NK Slaven Belupo are averaging 1 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
1/game
Higher league positionNK Slaven Belupo
NK Slaven Belupo sit 2 places above HNK Gorica in the table.
#8 vs #10

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 38% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pickExact score missed

We picked HNK Gorica at 38% — final result was NK Slaven Belupo win, NK Slaven Belupo 2-0 HNK Gorica.

Predicted score was 1-2.

The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (68/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.

Closing odds vs. our model

HNK Gorica2.47market 40.4% · model 38%

NK Slaven Belupo ✓2.66market 37.6% · model 35%

Draw3.23market 31% · model 27%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

NK Slaven Belupo have averaged 1 goal scored per game over their last 10 matches.
HNK Gorica have averaged 0.8 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

5NK Slaven Belupo wins

1Draws

2HNK Gorica wins

16-8Goals

NK Slaven Belupo

1–0May 10, 2026, 4:15 PM

HNK Gorica

2–2Mar 7, 2026, 2:00 PM

NK Slaven Belupo

2–1Dec 5, 2025, 5:00 PM

HNK Gorica

2–1Sep 21, 2025, 3:00 PM

NK Slaven Belupo

4–0May 18, 2025, 2:00 PM

HNK Gorica

0–3Mar 14, 2025, 5:00 PM

NK Slaven Belupo

2–1Dec 13, 2024, 5:00 PM

HNK Gorica

2–1Sep 30, 2024, 2:00 PM

NK Slaven Belupo

Odds comparison

Match winner

NK Slaven Belupo2.66▼best 2.75

Draw3.23best 3.45

HNK Gorica2.47▲best 2.58

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.79best 1.87

Under 2.51.96▼best 2.05

Both teams to score

Yes1.60▲best 1.67

No2.18▼best 2.27

Double chance

NK Slaven Belupo/Draw1.48▼best 1.53

NK Slaven Belupo/HNK Gorica1.29▼best 1.33

Draw/HNK Gorica1.42▲best 1.47

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.25best 1.25

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes3.75best 3.75

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.28best 1.28

Clean Sheet - Away — Yes3.50best 3.50

Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

NK Slaven Belupo2.66▼ 0.03

Draw3.23▼ 0.03

HNK Gorica2.47▲ 0.08

19 Aug – 22 Aug

Model vs market

NK Slaven Belupo win+0.5pp

35%

Market

34.5%

Draw-1.4pp

27%

Market

28.4%

HNK Gorica win+0.9pp

38%

Market

37.1%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.