Notts County vs Burton Albion — League One

League One· Regular Season - 3

Notts County

2–1Full-time

Burton Albion

LLWLDDGoals 11-116th in league

LDDLDWGoals 10-1012th in league

Home1W 1D 0L(3-2)

Away1W 0D 1L(3-3)

Value found

+7.6% edge

Burton Albion win

3.23AI fair odds

3.47Bookmaker odds

+7.6%Value

Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.

Today

Lineups~1h before

Kickoff

Half-time

Full-time

Match events

23'F. Delap (Jack Armer)
34'Curtis Tilt
36'Rory Finneran
45'Jack Evans (Luka Smyth)
51'Jack Armer
52'Sulyman Krubally
62'Sulyman Krubally (Will Collar)
62'Zac Scutt (Tyrese Shade)
65'George Evans
66'Callum Roberts (Conor·Grant)
67'Darius Lipsiuc (Maziar Kouhyar)
78'Luka Smyth (Nicholas Tsaroulla)
83'Curtis Tilt
84'Luka Smyth
87'George Evans
90'Nicholas Tsaroulla (Ishé Samuels-Smith)

Lineups unavailable for this match.

Notts CountyBurton Albion

1.1
Goals/game: 1.0; 1.1
Conceded/game: 1.0

AI match analysis

Notts County win

41%

Draw

28%

Burton Albion win

31%

42.3%BTTS

35%Over 2.5

35%Notts County clean sheet

35%Burton Albion clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-1

Data suggests a closely contested match, with both teams showing similar scoring and conceding patterns recently. Notts County's struggle to secure wins at home contrasts with Burton Albion's solid start away, making the contest unpredictable. The numbers favor a potentially low-scoring draw, given both teams' recent form.

Notts County has drawn all three of their last home matches.
Burton Albion is unbeaten in their last 5 matches, including 1 away win this season.
Both teams average 1 goal scored and 1 goal conceded per game in their last 10 matches.

AI ConfidenceModerate confidence

68/100

Confidence is moderate because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Notts County

Strong home recordNotts County
Notts County have won 1 of their last 2 home matches.
1/2 home wins
Strong away recordBurton Albion
Burton Albion have won 1 of their last 2 away matches.
1/2 away wins
Higher league positionNotts County
Notts County sit 6 places above Burton Albion in the table.
#6 vs #12
Sharper attackNotts County
Notts County are averaging 1.1 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
1.1/game

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 41% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
No head-to-head history
These two teams have no recorded meetings, so the prediction relies on form and standings alone.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pickExact score missed

We picked Notts County at 41% — final result was Notts County win, Notts County 2-1 Burton Albion.

Predicted score was 1-1.

The model itself only flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (68/100) — a closer call that happened to land right.

Closing odds vs. our model

Notts County ✓2.06market 48.7% · model 41%

Draw3.40market 29.4% · model 28%

Burton Albion3.47market 28.8% · model 31%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

Notts County have averaged 1.1 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Burton Albion have averaged 1 goal scored per game over their last 10 matches.

Head-to-head

No previous meetings on record.

Odds comparison

Match winner

Notts County2.06▼best 2.30

Draw3.40▲best 3.63

Burton Albion3.47▲best 3.94

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.98▼best 2.05

Under 2.51.79▲best 1.88

Both teams to score

Yes1.79▲best 1.87

No1.92▼best 1.95

Double chance

Notts County/Draw1.29▼best 1.36

Notts County/Burton Albion1.28▼best 1.30

Draw/Burton Albion1.69▲best 1.85

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes2.62▼best 2.62

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.44▲best 1.44

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.20▼best 1.20

Clean Sheet - Away — Yes4.33▲best 4.33

Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Notts County2.06▼ 0.22

Draw3.40▲ 0.15

Burton Albion3.47▲ 0.52

26 Aug – 29 Aug

Model vs market

Notts County win-4.5pp

41%

Market

45.5%

Draw+0.5pp

28%

Market

27.5%

Burton Albion win+4pp

31%

Market

27%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.