Orange County SC vs Louisville City
Match events
- 6'R. Serrano (T. Showunmi)
- 45+1'Z. Duncan
- 46'E. Solis (M. Palomino)
- 46'Z. Duncan (T. Davila)
- 48'R. Serrano (Q. Huerman)
- 64'J. Morris (S. Totsch)
- 64'T. Showunmi (Chris Donovan)
- 68'Chris Donovan (Q. Huerman)
- 70'C. Hegardt (E. Zubak)
- 70'O. Sylla
- 71'R. Serrano (J. Wilson)
- 79'S. Gleadle (E. Perez)
- 81'Y. Bazini
- 83'S. Kelly (N. Ciotta)
- 83'B. Cambridge (M. Bunbury)
- 90'R. Doghman (J. Castro)
- 0.9
- Goals/game
- 1.0
- 1.6
- Conceded/game
- 0.5
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 1-2
The statistics suggest that Louisville City has a favorable edge in their upcoming matchup against Orange County SC. Historically, they have not lost to Orange County in their last four encounters, and their recent performance includes a strong defense, conceding an average of only 0.3 goals in the last 10 matches. In contrast, Orange County has struggled lately, managing just one win in their last five games, which may influence their chances of success.
- Louisville City unbeaten in 4 head-to-head matches against Orange County SC
- Orange County SC has only 1 win in last 5 games
- Louisville City scored an average of 1.1 goals and conceded only 0.3 in last 10 matches
Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Louisville City
- Historical edgeLouisville City
Louisville City have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two teams.
3/4 H2H wins - Tighter defenseLouisville City
Louisville City are conceding just 0.5 goals per game over their recent matches.
0.5/game conceded - Higher league positionOrange County SC
Orange County SC sit 2 places above Louisville City in the table.
#3 vs #5 - Poor recent formOrange County SC
Orange County SC have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
2W 0D 3L
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Louisville City at 50% — final result was Louisville City win, Orange County SC 2-3 Louisville City.
Predicted score was 1-2.
This was a high confidence pick (88/100) — and it paid off.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Orange County SC have averaged 0.9 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Louisville City have averaged 1 goal scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two sides.
- Both teams scored in 2 of the last 4 head-to-head matches.
Head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
Odds comparison
Match winner
Total goals (2.5 line)
Both teams to score
Double chance
Clean sheet
Average and best price across 11 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 |  Orange County SC | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 34 | LLWW |
| 5 |  Louisville City | 21 | 9 | 4 | 8 | +1 | 31 | WDLW |
Pre-match comparison
Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.
Referee
T. Wiseman
Based on 3 matches officiated (our own data).
When do they score?
Orange County SC
Louisville City
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Colorado SpringsFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Orange County SC vs Louisville City?+
Our AI model favors Louisville City to win, with a 50% probability (Draw 25%, Orange County SC 25%).
What time does Orange County SC vs Louisville City kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 16, 2026, 2:00 AM (your local time, based on your device).