Oţelul vs Universitatea Craiova

Liga I· Regular Season - 5
WWLLGoals 16-1810th in league
DLWDGoals 11-49th in league
Home1W 2D 0L(4-3)
Away0W 1D 1L(2-6)
Today
Lineups~1h before
Kickoff
Half-time
Full-time

Match events

  1. 24'Alexandru Crețu
  2. 29'Alexandru Crețu
  3. 29'Alexandru Crețu
  4. 46'Carlos Mora (N. Bancu)
  5. 56'M. Etim (T. Baluta)
  6. 59'V. Screciu (O. Romanchuk)
  7. 60'João Lameira
  8. 64'L. Basceanu (D. Matei)
  9. 64'M. Etim (S. Baiaram)
  10. 65'A. Ciobanu (Joao Paulino)
  11. 72'A. Al Hamlawi (S. Nsimba)
  12. 77'Matei Frunză (Denis Bordun)
  13. 77'Miguel Silva (T. Lungu)
  14. 80'S. Baiaram
  15. 86'O. Romanchuk
  16. 86'R. Sava
  17. 87'T. Lungu (Andrézinho)
  18. 90+3'D. Matei

Lineups

OţelulUniversitatea Craiova
1.6
Goals/game
1.1
1.8
Conceded/game
0.4

AI match analysis

Oţelul win
21%
Draw
26%
Universitatea Craiova win
53%
48.4%BTTS
44.3%Over 2.5
23.5%Oţelul clean sheet
36.8%Universitatea Craiova clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-2

Data suggests a competitive match where Universitatea Craiova holds the edge based on historical head-to-head performances, winning 3 of the last 5 encounters against Oţelul. While Oţelul has been solid at home, their overall goal-scoring and defensive statistics indicate vulnerability. The numbers favor Universitatea Craiova to secure a victory, considering their stronger scoring ratio in recent matches.

  • Universitatea Craiova has won the last 3 out of 5 encounters against Oţelul.
  • Oţelul has averaged 1.7 goals scored per game but conceded 1.6 in their last 10 matches.
  • Universitatea Craiova's away record this season is poor, with 0 points from 1 match.
  • Oţelul's recent form includes 2 draws and 1 win from their last 4 games.
AI ConfidenceHigh confidence
89/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Universitatea Craiova

  • Weak home recordOţelul

    Oţelul have won 1 of their last 3 home matches.

    1/3 home wins
  • Weak away recordUniversitatea Craiova

    Universitatea Craiova have won 0 of their last 2 away matches.

    0/2 away wins
  • Tighter defenseUniversitatea Craiova

    Universitatea Craiova are conceding just 0.4 goals per game over their recent matches.

    0.4/game conceded
  • Sharper attackOţelul

    Oţelul are averaging 1.6 goals scored per game over their recent matches.

    1.6/game

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

  • AI and market are closely aligned

    The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pickExact score missed

We picked Universitatea Craiova at 53% — final result was a draw, Oţelul 1-1 Universitatea Craiova.

Predicted score was 1-2.

This was a high confidence pick (89/100) that didn't come through — a reminder that no forecast is guaranteed.

Closing odds vs. our model

Universitatea Craiova1.82market 55.1% · model 53%
Draw3.44market 29.1% · model 26%
Oţelul4.09market 24.4% · model 21%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

  • Oţelul have averaged 1.6 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Universitatea Craiova have averaged 1.1 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Over 2.5 goals landed in 2 of the last 7 meetings between these two sides.
  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 7 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 7 meetings

2Oţelul wins
2Draws
3Universitatea Craiova wins
5-7Goals

Odds comparison

Match winner

Oţelul4.09best 4.44
Draw3.44best 3.63
Universitatea Craiova1.82best 1.86

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.94best 2.00
Under 2.51.82best 1.87

Both teams to score

Yes1.80best 1.83
No1.90best 1.93

Double chance

Oţelul/Draw1.90best 1.98
Oţelul/Universitatea Craiova1.26best 1.30
Draw/Universitatea Craiova1.20best 1.24

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.20best 1.20
Clean Sheet - Away — Yes2.50best 2.50
Clean Sheet - Away — No1.50best 1.50
Clean Sheet - Home — Yes4.33best 4.33

Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Oţelul4.09 0.08
Draw3.44 0.05
Universitatea Craiova1.82 0.02
13 Aug16 Aug

Model vs market

Oţelul win-1.5pp
AI
21%
Market
22.5%
Draw-0.8pp
AI
26%
Market
26.8%
Universitatea Craiova win+2.3pp
AI
53%
Market
50.7%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

League standings

#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
10
Oţelul
513106LDDW
9
Universitatea Craiova
5212+37LWLW

Pre-match comparison

1.6Goals scored per game1.1
1.8Goals conceded per game0.4

Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.

When do they score?

Universitatea Craiova

0-15'
0%
16-30'
0%
31-45'
66.7%
46-60'
0%
61-75'
33.3%
76-90+'
0%

More Liga I predictions

Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win Oţelul vs Universitatea Craiova?+

Our AI model favors Universitatea Craiova to win, with a 53% probability (Draw 26%, Oţelul 21%).

What time does Oţelul vs Universitatea Craiova kick off?+

Kickoff is at Aug 16, 2026, 3:30 PM (your local time, based on your device).