Portland Fire W vs Minnesota Lynx W
Moda Center
Value found
+177.6% edgePortland Fire W win
Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.
Total points edge
AI expects 168 total points vs the market's 186.5 line — leans under by 18.5 points.
Score by quarter
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Portland Fire W | 23 | 10 | 18 | 30 | 81 |
 Minnesota Lynx W | 26 | 31 | 11 | 17 | 85 |
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 81-87
The numbers suggest a close match, with Minnesota Lynx W holding a slight advantage based on their recent victory over Golden State Valkyries W. Historically, Portland Fire W has struggled recently, especially against Phoenix Mercury W. With both teams averaging similar scoring figures, it could result in a competitive scoreline favoring the away team.
- Portland Fire W has lost 3 of their last 5 matches against Phoenix Mercury W
- Minnesota Lynx W won their last match against Golden State Valkyries W
- Portland Fire W averages 80.7 points scored and 77.9 points conceded over their last 10 matches
Confidence is low because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and this fixture has limited historical data available so far.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
What could change the prediction
- Below-average model confidence
Overall model confidence for this match is 18/100 — treat the prediction as directional rather than decisive.
- Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 53% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
- No head-to-head history
These two teams have no recorded meetings, so the prediction relies on form and standings alone.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Minnesota Lynx W at 53% — final result was Minnesota Lynx W win, Portland Fire W 81-85 Minnesota Lynx W.
Predicted score was 81-87.
The model itself only flagged this as a very low confidence pick (18/100) — a closer call that happened to land right.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Portland Fire W have averaged 87.3 points scored per game over their last 7 matches.
- Minnesota Lynx W have averaged 81.1 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Odds comparison
Moneyline
Point spread
| Line | Portland Fire W | Minnesota Lynx W |
|---|---|---|
| +11 | 2.09▼ | 1.69▲ |
| +11.5 | 2.01▼ | 1.75▲ |
| +12 | 1.96▼ | 1.81▲ |
| +12.5 | 1.90▼ | 1.88▲ |
| +13 | 1.82▼ | 1.95▲ |
| +13.5 | 1.77▼ | 1.97▲ |
| +14 | 1.70▼ | 2.07▲ |
| +14.5 | 1.66▼ | 2.11▲ |
Total points
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 184 | 1.72▼ | 2.03▲ |
| 185 | 1.77▼ | 1.98▲ |
| 185.5 | 1.79▼ | 1.96▲ |
| 186 | 1.86▼ | 1.92▲ |
| 186.5 | 1.87▼ | 1.88▲ |
| 187 | 1.94▼ | 1.82▲ |
| 187.5 | 1.96▼ | 1.79▲ |
| 188 | 2.02▼ | 1.74▲ |
Double chance
Average price across 12 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Moneyline — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Match statistics
Players to watch
Head-to-head
No previous meetings on record.
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | L | Diff | Win% | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Atlanta Dream W | 37 | 24 | 13 | +207 | 65 | — |
| 2 |  Indiana Fever W | 39 | 25 | 14 | +222 | 64 | — |
| 3 |  New York Liberty W | 38 | 23 | 15 | +119 | 61 | — |
| 4 |  Washington Mystics W | 37 | 22 | 15 | -19 | 60 | — |
| 5 |  Chicago Sky W | 38 | 15 | 23 | -95 | 40 | — |
| 6 |  Toronto Tempo W | 37 | 11 | 26 | -237 | 30 | — |
| 7 |  Connecticut Sun W | 36 | 9 | 27 | -288 | 25 | — |
| 1 | Minnesota Lynx W | 38 | 31 | 7 | +337 | 82 | — |
| 2 |  Golden State Valkyries W | 36 | 25 | 11 | +212 | 69 | — |
| 3 |  Las Vegas Aces W | 39 | 26 | 13 | +143 | 67 | — |
| 4 | Atlanta Dream W | 37 | 24 | 13 | +207 | 65 | — |
| 5 | Indiana Fever W | 39 | 25 | 14 | +222 | 64 | — |
| 6 | New York Liberty W | 38 | 23 | 15 | +119 | 61 | — |
| 7 | Washington Mystics W | 37 | 22 | 15 | -19 | 60 | — |
| 8 |  Dallas Wings W | 38 | 22 | 16 | +102 | 58 | — |
| 9 | Portland Fire W | 37 | 15 | 22 | -162 | 41 | — |
| 10 | Chicago Sky W | 38 | 15 | 23 | -95 | 40 | — |
| 11 |  Los Angeles Sparks W | 37 | 13 | 24 | -193 | 35 | — |
| 12 |  Phoenix Mercury W | 37 | 13 | 24 | -138 | 35 | — |
| 13 | Toronto Tempo W | 37 | 11 | 26 | -237 | 30 | — |
| 14 | Connecticut Sun W | 36 | 9 | 27 | -288 | 25 | — |
| 15 |  Seattle Storm W | 38 | 7 | 31 | -210 | 18 | — |
| 1 | Minnesota Lynx W | 38 | 31 | 7 | +337 | 82 | — |
| 2 | Golden State Valkyries W | 36 | 25 | 11 | +212 | 69 | — |
| 3 | Las Vegas Aces W | 39 | 26 | 13 | +143 | 67 | — |
| 4 | Dallas Wings W | 38 | 22 | 16 | +102 | 58 | — |
| 5 | Portland Fire W | 37 | 15 | 22 | -162 | 41 | — |
| 6 | Los Angeles Sparks W | 37 | 13 | 24 | -193 | 35 | — |
| 7 | Phoenix Mercury W | 37 | 13 | 24 | -138 | 35 | — |
| 8 | Seattle Storm W | 38 | 7 | 31 | -210 | 18 | — |
Season comparison
Based on each team's last 7 and 20 finished games.
More NBA W predictions
Atlanta Dream WMinnesota Lynx WSeattle Storm WLos Angeles Sparks WPortland Fire WGolden State Valkyries WDallas Wings WConnecticut Sun WFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Portland Fire W vs Minnesota Lynx W?+
Our AI model favors Minnesota Lynx W to win, with a 53% probability (Portland Fire W 47%).
What time does Portland Fire W vs Minnesota Lynx W start?+
Tip-off is at Aug 13, 2026, 2:00 AM (your local time, based on your device).
What was the score by quarter in Portland Fire W vs Minnesota Lynx W?+
Portland Fire W: 23-10-18-30. Minnesota Lynx W: 26-31-11-17. Final: 81-85.