Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado
Parque Abraham Paladino, Montevideo · Capacity 7,500 · grass · Referee: M. De Armas
Match events
- 2'H. Menosse
- 20'R. Cristóbal
- 32'M. Gonzalez
- 46'C. Bolzan (Camilo Mayada)
- 50'M. Martin (G. Trasante)
- 61'F. De Leon (N. Acosta)
- 61'F. De Leon (M. Copelotti)
- 62'A. Ocampo (M. Copelotti)
- 62'A. Ocampo (N. Acosta)
- 68'M. Gonzalez
- 71'S. Cartagena (G. Larrazabal)
- 71'S. Ramírez (L. Núñez)
- 71'S. Ramírez (G. Larrazabal)
- 71'S. Cartagena (L. Núñez)
- 73'M. Juambeltz (L. Viana)
- 73'R. Cristóbal (S. Bruschi)
- 80'Hernan Petrik (J. M. Ginzo)
- 84'R. Cesar (A. Vila)
- 90'Christian Tabó
- 0.8
- Goals/game
- 0.8
- 1.5
- Conceded/game
- 1.2
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 1-2
Data suggests that Deportivo Maldonado has a strong recent head-to-head advantage over Progreso, winning the last two encounters. Progreso has struggled for form, with only one win in their last five matches, contributing to their current league position. Meanwhile, Deportivo Maldonado's recent performances have been more solid, with a higher league standing and a better goal difference.
- Deportivo Maldonado unbeaten in last 4 encounters against Progreso
- Progreso's recent form shows only 1 win in last 5 matches
- Deportivo Maldonado ranked 3rd in the league, compared to Progreso's 7th
- Progreso averages 0.9 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game in last 10 matches.
Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is moderate, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Deportivo Maldonado
- Historical edgeDeportivo Maldonado
Deportivo Maldonado have won 2 of the last 4 meetings between these two teams.
2/4 H2H wins - Higher league positionDeportivo Maldonado
Deportivo Maldonado sit 5 places above Progreso in the table.
#2 vs #7 - Poor recent formProgreso
Progreso have lost 4 of their last 5 matches.
0W 1D 4L - Sharper attackProgreso
Progreso are averaging 0.8 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
0.8/game
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Deportivo Maldonado at 47% — final result was Deportivo Maldonado win, Progreso 0-2 Deportivo Maldonado.
Predicted score was 1-2.
This was a high confidence pick (83/100) — and it paid off.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Progreso have averaged 0.8 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Deportivo Maldonado have averaged 0.8 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Over 2.5 goals landed in 1 of the last 4 meetings between these two sides.
- Both teams scored in 2 of the last 4 head-to-head matches.
Head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
Odds comparison
Match winner
Total goals (2.5 line)
Both teams to score
Double chance
Clean sheet
Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 |  Progreso | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 6 | WLLW |
| 2 |  Deportivo Maldonado | 25 | 13 | 7 | 5 | +16 | 46 | WDDL |
Pre-match comparison
Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.
Referee
M. De Armas
Based on 1 matches officiated (our own data).
When do they score?
Deportivo Maldonado
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JuventudDeportivo MaldonadoFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado?+
Our AI model favors Deportivo Maldonado to win, with a 47% probability (Draw 28%, Progreso 25%).
Where is Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado played?+
The match is played at Parque Abraham Paladino, Montevideo (capacity 7,500).
What time does Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 16, 2026, 2:00 PM (your local time, based on your device).