Provence Rugby vs Agen
Stade Maurice David
Value found
+50% edgeDraw
Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.
Score by half
| Team | 1H | 2H | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 Provence Rugby | — | — | 44 |
 Agen | — | — | 10 |
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 33-24
Data suggests Provence Rugby is strongly favored due to their impressive 85% home win rate this season and their recent scoring average. Agen's challenges away from home, reflected in their 20% win rate, raise concerns about their ability to compete in this matchup. With a prediction of 33-24 in favor of Provence Rugby, the statistics favor the home team significantly.
- Provence Rugby has an 85% home win rate this season.
- Agen has won only 20% of their away matches this season.
- In their last 10 matches, Provence Rugby has averaged 31.4 points scored and 28 points conceded, while Agen averaged 29.6 points scored and 27.4 points conceded.
- Provence Rugby has a slight edge in historical head-to-head matchups, winning 2 of the last 5 encounters.
Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and some historical data (form, H2H or standings) is still incomplete.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Provence Rugby
- Strong home recordProvence Rugby
Provence Rugby have won 17 of their last 20 home matches.
17/20 home wins - Weak away recordAgen
Agen have won 4 of their last 20 away matches.
4/20 away wins - Historical edgeAgen
Agen have won 3 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.
3/5 H2H wins - Good recent formProvence Rugby
Provence Rugby have won 4 of their last 5 matches.
4W 0D 1L
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Provence Rugby at 83% — final result was Provence Rugby win, Provence Rugby 44-10 Agen.
Predicted score was 33-24.
This was a high confidence pick (85/100) — and it paid off.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Provence Rugby have averaged 33.8 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Agen have averaged 27.2 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Provence Rugby are unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 meetings with Agen.
Odds comparison
Match winner
Points spread
| Line | Provence Rugby | Agen |
|---|---|---|
| -15.5 | 1.90 | 1.81 |
| -15 | 1.91 | 1.91 |
| -14.5 | 1.88 | 1.82 |
| -14 | 1.91 | 1.91 |
| -13.5 | 1.83 | 1.88 |
| -13 | 2.00▲ | 1.80▼ |
| -12.5 | 1.75▼ | 1.96▲ |
| -11 | 1.80 | 2.00 |
Total points
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 51.5 | 1.49 | 2.43 |
| 52.5 | 1.44 | 2.51 |
| 55.5 | 1.63 | 2.11 |
| 57.5 | 1.85 | 1.85 |
| 58.5 | 1.86 | 1.84 |
| 61.5 | 2.18 | 1.59 |
| 63.5 | 2.48 | 1.48 |
| 64.5 | 2.57 | 1.42 |
Average price across 7 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
More Pro D2 predictions
Frequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Provence Rugby vs Agen?+
Our AI model favors Provence Rugby to win, with a 83% probability (Agen 12%).
What time does Provence Rugby vs Agen kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 27, 2026, 7:00 PM (your local time, based on your device).
What was the score by half in Provence Rugby vs Agen?+
Provence Rugby: . Agen: . Final: 44-10.