Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad

La Liga· Regular Season - 1

Real Madrid

4–1Full-time

Real Sociedad

DWWWWWGoals 18-72nd in league

LDDLLLGoals 12-1920th in league

Home1W 0D 0L(4-1)

Away0W 0D 2L(1-5)

Estadio Enrique Roca de Murcia, Murcia · Capacity 31,179 · grass · Referee: M. Busquets

Match events

10'Álvaro Carreras
32'Yangel Herrera
40'Kylian Mbappé (Federico Valverde)
44'Luka Sučić
45+2'Jon Aramburu
46'Álvaro Carreras (Marc Cucurella)
57'Mikel Oyarzabal (Orri Steinn Óskarsson)
57'Jon Aramburu (Igor Zubeldia)
60'Kylian Mbappé (J. Bellingham)
66'J. Ochieng (Ander Barrenetxea)
67'Yangel Herrera (Carlos Soler)
68'Vinícius Júnior (J. Bellingham)
68'J. Bellingham
72'L. Beitia
73'Ibrahima Konaté
74'Takefusa Kubo (Gonçalo Guedes)
78'J. Bellingham (Eduardo Camavinga)
78'A. Guler (Brahim Diaz)
80'Kylian Mbappé (Vinícius Júnior)
84'Vinícius Júnior (Y. Diomande)
86'Bernardo Silva (C. Espi)
90+4'Eduardo Camavinga
90'Brahim Diaz
90'Goal Disallowed - offside — Brahim Diaz

Lineups

Real Madrid

Real Sociedad

4-2-3-14-2-3-1

José MourinhoCoach

Pellegrino Matarazzo

AI match analysis

Real Madrid win

76%

Draw

15%

Real Sociedad win

9%

51.7%BTTS

53.1%Over 2.5

38.7%Real Madrid clean sheet

15.7%Real Sociedad clean sheet

Predicted score: 2-0

Data suggests that Real Madrid is in strong form, having secured five consecutive victories, while Real Sociedad is struggling with five straight losses. The head-to-head record favors Real Madrid significantly, with them winning four of the last five encounters. The statistics indicate a likely win for Real Madrid, which could enable them to capitalize on their home advantage against a struggling Sociedad.

Real Madrid has won their last 5 matches consecutively.
Real Sociedad has lost their last 5 matches, with a poor defensive record.
Historically, Real Madrid has won 4 out of the last 5 matches against Real Sociedad.

AI ConfidenceHigh confidence

100/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Real Madrid

Strong recent formReal Madrid
Real Madrid are unbeaten in their last 5 matches, including 5 wins.
5W 0D 0L
Poor recent formReal Sociedad
Real Sociedad have lost 4 of their last 5 matches.
0W 1D 4L
Historical edgeReal Madrid
Real Madrid have won 7 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams.
7/8 H2H wins
Higher league positionReal Madrid
Real Madrid sit 18 places above Real Sociedad in the table.
#2 vs #20

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pickExact score missed

We picked Real Madrid at 76% — final result was Real Madrid win, Real Madrid 4-1 Real Sociedad.

Predicted score was 2-0.

This was a high confidence pick (100/100) — and it paid off.

Closing odds vs. our model

Real Madrid ✓1.21market 82.8% · model 76%

Draw7.01market 14.3% · model 15%

Real Sociedad12.54market 8% · model 9%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

Real Madrid have averaged 1.8 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Real Sociedad have averaged 1.2 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

7Real Madrid wins

1Draws

0Real Sociedad wins

18-7Goals

Real Madrid

4–1Feb 14, 2026, 8:00 PM

Real Sociedad

1–2Sep 13, 2025, 2:15 PM

Real Madrid

2–0May 24, 2025, 2:15 PM

Real Sociedad

Real Madrid

4–4Apr 1, 2025, 7:30 PM

Real Sociedad

0–1Feb 26, 2025, 8:30 PM

Real Madrid

Real Sociedad

0–2Sep 14, 2024, 7:00 PM

Real Madrid

Real Sociedad

0–1Apr 26, 2024, 7:00 PM

Real Madrid

2–1Sep 17, 2023, 7:00 PM

Real Sociedad

Odds comparison

Match winner

Real Madrid1.21▼best 1.25

Draw7.01▲best 7.50

Real Sociedad12.54▲best 14.00

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.35▼best 1.38

Under 2.53.10▲best 3.35

Both teams to score

Yes1.82▲best 1.85

No1.92▼best 1.95

Double chance

Real Madrid/Draw1.04▼best 1.06

Real Madrid/Real Sociedad1.10▼best 1.13

Draw/Real Sociedad4.30▲best 4.50

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.02▼best 1.03

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.75▲best 1.77

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes1.98▼best 2.00

Clean Sheet - Away — Yes12.50▲best 15.00

Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Real Madrid1.21▼ 0.17

Draw7.01▲ 2.21

Real Sociedad12.54▲ 5.29

23 Aug – 26 Aug

Model vs market

Real Madrid win-2.8pp

AI

76%

Market

78.8%

Draw+1.4pp

AI

15%

Market

13.6%

Real Sociedad win+1.4pp

AI

9%

Market

7.6%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.