Rhode Island vs Monterey Bay — USL Championship

USL Championship· Group Stage

Rhode Island

3–1Full-time

Monterey Bay

DWWLWLGoals 15-87th in league

LLLDLDGoals 7-2212th in league

Home5W 4D 1L(18-8)

Away0W 3D 9L(10-25)

Today

Lineups~1h before

Kickoff

Half-time

Full-time

Match events

5'Leo Afonso
16'Sebastian Lletget (I. Paul)
22'Z. Farnsworth
25'A. Sanchez
42'D. Otoya
55'D. Otoya (W. Leggett)
59'Q. Elliot
67'C. Ortiz (Y. Tsukada)
70'O. Glasgow (F. Barajas)
72'A. Rodriguez (N. Fuson)
72'Y. Tsukada (D. Atkinson)
76'A. Shapiro-Thompson
77'F. Barajas
80'A. Shapiro-Thompson (E. Klein)
80'Leo Afonso (Osman Foyo)
83'G. Stoneman
84'Sebastian Lletget (Jacob Montes)
89'N. Scardina (D. Rovira)
90+2'W. Leggett
90'E. Klein

Lineups unavailable for this match.

Rhode IslandMonterey Bay

1.5
Goals/game: 0.7; 0.8
Conceded/game: 2.2

AI match analysis

Rhode Island win

69%

Draw

18%

Monterey Bay win

13%

44.5%BTTS

48.2%Over 2.5

47.2%Rhode Island clean sheet

15.7%Monterey Bay clean sheet

Predicted score: 2-1

Data suggests Rhode Island is in a strong position, especially at home where they remain unbeaten in their last five matches, posting a solid scoring record. In contrast, Monterey Bay has struggled significantly away from home, having lost all eight of their matches this season. With Rhode Island's recent home form and Monterey Bay's poor away performances, the numbers favor the home side.

Rhode Island unbeaten at home in their last 5 matches (4W, 1D)
Monterey Bay has lost all 8 of their away matches this season
Rhode Island has averaged 1.5 goals scored and 0.8 conceded in their last 10 matches

AI ConfidenceHigh confidence

100/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Rhode Island

Tighter defenseRhode Island
Rhode Island are conceding just 0.8 goals per game over their recent matches.
0.8/game conceded
Good recent formRhode Island
Rhode Island have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
3W 0D 2L
Poor recent formMonterey Bay
Monterey Bay have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
0W 2D 3L
Strong home recordRhode Island
Rhode Island have won 5 of their last 10 home matches.
5/10 home wins

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pickExact score missed

We picked Rhode Island at 69% — final result was Rhode Island win, Rhode Island 3-1 Monterey Bay.

Predicted score was 2-1.

This was a high confidence pick (100/100) — and it paid off.

Closing odds vs. our model

Rhode Island ✓1.37market 73.2% · model 69%

Draw4.58market 21.8% · model 18%

Monterey Bay6.95market 14.4% · model 13%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

Rhode Island have averaged 1.5 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Monterey Bay have averaged 0.7 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.

Head-to-head

Last 2 meetings

0Rhode Island wins

2Draws

0Monterey Bay wins

3-3Goals

Rhode Island

1–1May 10, 2025, 8:00 PM

Monterey Bay

2–2Mar 24, 2024, 10:00 PM

Rhode Island

Odds comparison

Match winner

Rhode Island1.37best 1.43

Draw4.58▼best 5.10

Monterey Bay6.95▲best 8.00

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.60▼best 1.63

Under 2.52.22▲best 2.31

Both teams to score

Yes1.80▼best 1.83

No1.88best 1.95

Double chance

Rhode Island/Draw1.07▼best 1.10

Rhode Island/Monterey Bay1.14best 1.18

Draw/Monterey Bay2.86▲best 3.25

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Away — Yes7.50▲best 7.50

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.73▲best 1.73

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes2.00▼best 2.00

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.07▼best 1.07

Average and best price across 12 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Rhode Island1.37▼ 0.06

Draw4.58▲ 0.28

Monterey Bay6.95▲ 1.01

19 Aug – 22 Aug

Model vs market

Rhode Island win+2.1pp

69%

Market

66.9%

Draw-1.9pp

18%

Market

19.9%

Monterey Bay win-0.1pp

13%

Market

13.1%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.