Ried vs Grazer AK

Bundesliga· Regular Season - 4
Ried
10Full-time
Grazer AK
WLLLGoals 10-168th in league
WWLDGoals 13-1612th in league
Home1W 0D 1L(2-2)
Away0W 0D 3L(0-12)
Today
Lineups~1h before
Kickoff
Half-time
Full-time

Match events

  1. 5'S. Chukwudi
  2. 28'Goal Disallowed - video review — Anderson Dos Santos Gomes
  3. 29'Anderson Dos Santos Gomes (L. Klassen)
  4. 33'Y. Oberleitner
  5. 39'Anderson Dos Santos Gomes
  6. 45+1'P. Sissoko
  7. 45+2'Peter Michorl
  8. 45+2'P. Sissoko
  9. 57'B. Owusu
  10. 59'E. E. Aisowieren (J. Boguo)
  11. 59'P. Sissoko (T. Kusanovic)
  12. 67'Anderson Dos Santos Gomes (Matthias Gragger)
  13. 67'A. Hofleitner (Daniel Maderner)
  14. 72'J. Nasrawe (Martin Rasner)
  15. 73'Christian Lichtenberger (Mark Große)
  16. 83'Peter Michorl (S. Mandey)
  17. 87'Ante Bajic (D. Radonjic)
  18. 90+3'T. Kusanovic

Lineups

RiedGrazer AK
1.0
Goals/game
1.3
1.6
Conceded/game
1.6

AI match analysis

Ried win
49%
Draw
26%
Grazer AK win
25%
55.7%BTTS
51.9%Over 2.5
23.5%Ried clean sheet
27.3%Grazer AK clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-1

The data suggests this match will be closely contested, with Ried struggling in form but historically having the upper hand in their recent head-to-head matchups against Grazer AK. Both teams are in the lower tier of the league standings and have negative goal differences, contributing to a projected low-scoring affair. Consequently, a draw appears as a likely outcome in this matchup.

  • Ried in poor recent form with 3 consecutive losses
  • Grazer AK has a negative goal difference of -10 this season
  • Ried has not scored a goal in their only home match
  • Last 4 head-to-head encounters show a competitive balance with Ried slightly favored.
AI ConfidenceHigh confidence
85/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is moderate, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Ried

  • Poor recent formRied

    Ried have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.

    2W 0D 3L
  • Sharper attackGrazer AK

    Grazer AK are averaging 1.3 goals scored per game over their recent matches.

    1.3/game
  • Tighter defenseRied

    Ried are conceding just 1.6 goals per game over their recent matches.

    1.6/game conceded
  • Higher league positionRied

    Ried sit 4 places above Grazer AK in the table.

    #8 vs #12

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

  • AI and market are closely aligned

    The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pickExact score missed

We picked Ried at 49% — final result was Ried win, Ried 1-0 Grazer AK.

Predicted score was 1-1.

This was a high confidence pick (85/100) — and it paid off.

Closing odds vs. our model

Ried1.95market 51.4% · model 49%
Draw3.43market 29.1% · model 26%
Grazer AK3.73market 26.8% · model 25%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

  • Ried have averaged 1 goal scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Grazer AK have averaged 1.3 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Over 2.5 goals landed in 2 of the last 4 meetings between these two sides.
  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings

1Ried wins
2Draws
1Grazer AK wins
4-4Goals

Odds comparison

Match winner

Ried1.95best 2.00
Draw3.43best 3.68
Grazer AK3.73best 4.00

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.90best 1.98
Under 2.51.86best 1.95

Both teams to score

Yes1.74best 1.80
No1.99best 2.10

Double chance

Ried/Draw1.25best 1.29
Ried/Grazer AK1.28best 1.30
Draw/Grazer AK1.80best 1.88

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes2.62best 2.62
Clean Sheet - Home — No1.44best 1.44
Clean Sheet - Away — Yes4.33best 4.33
Clean Sheet - Away — No1.20best 1.20

Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Ried1.95 0.30
Draw3.43 0.11
Grazer AK3.73 0.78
18 Aug21 Aug

Model vs market

Ried win+1.1pp
AI
49%
Market
47.9%
Draw-1.1pp
AI
26%
Market
27.1%
Grazer AK win0pp
AI
25%
Market
25%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

League standings

#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
8
Ried
4112-34WLLD
12
Grazer AK
4103-113LLWL

Pre-match comparison

1Goals scored per game1.3
1.6Goals conceded per game1.6

Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.

Referee

D. Pfister

5.13Yellow cards / game
0.25Red cards / game
0.75Penalties scored / game

Based on 8 matches officiated (our own data).

When do they score?

Ried

0-15'
20%
16-30'
20%
31-45'
10%
46-60'
0%
61-75'
10%
76-90+'
40%

Grazer AK

0-15'
7.7%
16-30'
7.7%
31-45'
15.4%
46-60'
23.1%
61-75'
23.1%
76-90+'
23.1%

More Bundesliga predictions

Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win Ried vs Grazer AK?+

Our AI model favors Ried to win, with a 49% probability (Draw 26%, Grazer AK 25%).

What time does Ried vs Grazer AK kick off?+

Kickoff is at Aug 21, 2026, 5:30 PM (your local time, based on your device).