Rodina Moskva vs Akron — Premier League

Premier League· Regular Season - 4

Rodina Moskva

3–3Full-time

Akron

WWLWLLGoals 17-1213th in league

DWLDWLGoals 7-1316th in league

Home0W 1D 1L(5-7)

Away0W 2D 0L(3-3)

Arena Khimki, Khimki · Referee: M. Zaika

Today

Lineups~1h before

Kickoff

Half-time

Full-time

Match events

12'Artem Maksimenko (Iker Pozo)
17'V. Bardybakhin
45+1'Artem Maksimenko
46'A. Dmitriev (Dudu)
46'K. Khosonov (Kristijan Bistrović)
51'S. Loncar (Roberto Fernández)
59'Y. Zheleznov (K. Arevalo)
67'Iker Pozo (Andrey Egorychev)
67'S. Bakaev (Astemir Gordyushenko)
71'Benchimol
77'Artem Maksimenko
77'A. Gharibyan (I. Timoshenko)
81'K. Maradishvili (N. Bazilevskiy)
86'K. Arevalo
90+1'Benchimol (Y. Rocha)
90'Artem Maksimenko (I. Dyatlov)
90'Yordy Reyna (K. Ushatov)

Lineups unavailable for this match.

Rodina MoskvaAkron

1.7
Goals/game: 0.7; 1.2
Conceded/game: 1.3

AI match analysis

Rodina Moskva win

38%

Draw

27%

Akron win

35%

47.6%BTTS

44.3%Over 2.5

38.7%Rodina Moskva clean sheet

22.3%Akron clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-1

Data suggests that this matchup may yield a closely contested game. Rodina Moskva's recent form includes a win but also indicates defensive weaknesses, while Akron's ongoing struggles might prevent them from capitalizing on any opportunities. The scoring averages point towards a tight game, likely resulting in a low-scoring draw.

Rodina Moskva has only 1 loss at home this season.
Akron has not won away this season and has a negative goal difference.
Akron has struggled recently, managing only 1 point in their last 3 matches.

AI ConfidenceModerate confidence

62/100

Confidence is moderate because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Rodina Moskva

Poor recent formRodina Moskva
Rodina Moskva have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
2W 0D 3L
Sharper attackRodina Moskva
Rodina Moskva are averaging 1.7 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
1.7/game
Tighter defenseRodina Moskva
Rodina Moskva are conceding just 1.2 goals per game over their recent matches.
1.2/game conceded
Higher league positionRodina Moskva
Rodina Moskva sit 3 places above Akron in the table.
#13 vs #16

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 38% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
No head-to-head history
These two teams have no recorded meetings, so the prediction relies on form and standings alone.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pickExact score missed

We picked Rodina Moskva at 38% — final result was a draw, Rodina Moskva 3-3 Akron.

Predicted score was 1-1.

The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (62/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.

Closing odds vs. our model

Rodina Moskva2.53market 39.5% · model 38%

Akron2.71market 37% · model 35%

Draw ✓3.50market 28.5% · model 27%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

Rodina Moskva have averaged 1.7 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Akron have averaged 0.7 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.

Head-to-head

No previous meetings on record.

Odds comparison

Match winner

Rodina Moskva2.53best 2.61

Draw3.50▲best 3.63

Akron2.71best 2.80

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.75▲best 1.78

Under 2.52.15best 2.20

Both teams to score

Yes1.56▼best 1.56

No2.29▲best 2.30

Double chance

Rodina Moskva/Draw1.47▲best 1.50

Rodina Moskva/Akron1.30▼best 1.33

Draw/Akron1.52best 1.56

Average and best price across 5 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Rodina Moskva2.53▲ 0.06

Draw3.50▼ 0.23

Akron2.71▼ 0.06

12 Aug – 15 Aug

Model vs market

Rodina Moskva win+0.4pp

38%

Market

37.6%

Draw-0.2pp

27%

Market

27.2%

Akron win-0.2pp

35%

Market

35.2%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.