Rot-Weiß Essen vs FC St. Pauli
Match events
- 27'A. Pyrka
- 36'M. Janssen (M. Obuz)
- 44'T. Menzel
- 53'Semir Telalović (J. Hofmann)
- 60'Joel Chima Fujita (S. Banks)
- 65'T. Hara (Ricky-Jade Jones)
- 70'Mathias Rasmussen (Eric Smith)
- 72'N. Pesch (D. Abiama)
- 72'M. Janssen (R. Reisig)
- 77'Semir Telalović
- 77'L. Oppie (E. Ahlstrand)
- 77'M. Kaars (C. Metcalfe)
- 80'M. Obuz (L. Brumme)
- 80'Semir Telalović (J. Potocnik)
- 89'T. Menzel (L. Bazzoli)
- 90+1'M. Mathisen
Lineups
- 1.8
- Goals/game
- 1.1
- 2.5
- Conceded/game
- 1.4
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 1-2
The analysis indicates that FC St. Pauli holds a stronger recent form with three draws in their last five matches, compared to Rot-Weiß Essen's disappointing performance, having lost four out of their last five games. Statistically, Rot-Weiß Essen's defensive challenges, averaging 2.5 goals conceded per match, could likely benefit St. Pauli, leading to an expected edge for the away team.
- Rot-Weiß Essen has lost 4 out of their last 5 matches.
- FC St. Pauli has drawn 3 of their last 5 matches.
- Rot-Weiß Essen averages 1.8 goals scored but concedes 2.5 in their last 10 matches.
Confidence is moderate because the probability gap between outcomes is moderate, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and this fixture has limited historical data available so far.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors FC St. Pauli
- Sharper attackRot-Weiß Essen
Rot-Weiß Essen are averaging 1.8 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
1.8/game - Tighter defenseFC St. Pauli
FC St. Pauli are conceding just 1.4 goals per game over their recent matches.
1.4/game conceded
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
- No head-to-head history
These two teams have no recorded meetings, so the prediction relies on form and standings alone.
How did our prediction do?
We picked FC St. Pauli at 45% — final result was Rot-Weiß Essen win, Rot-Weiß Essen 2-0 FC St. Pauli.
Predicted score was 1-2.
The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (59/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Rot-Weiß Essen have averaged 1.8 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- FC St. Pauli have averaged 1.1 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Head-to-head
No previous meetings on record.
Odds comparison
Match winner
Total goals (2.5 line)
Both teams to score
Double chance
Clean sheet
Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Pre-match comparison
Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.
Referee
T. Reichel
Based on 5 matches officiated (our own data).
When do they score?
Rot-Weiß Essen
FC St. Pauli
More DFB Pokal predictions
Frequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Rot-Weiß Essen vs FC St. Pauli?+
Our AI model favors FC St. Pauli to win, with a 45% probability (Draw 25%, Rot-Weiß Essen 30%).
What time does Rot-Weiß Essen vs FC St. Pauli kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 23, 2026, 4:00 PM (your local time, based on your device).