Sacramento Republic vs Lexington — USL Championship

USL Championship· Group Stage

Sacramento Republic

1–0Full-time

Lexington

WLLLDDGoals 11-106th in league

DWLWWLGoals 10-157th in league

Home6W 2D 2L(19-9)

Away2W 3D 5L(12-13)

Today

Lineups~1h before

Kickoff

Half-time

Full-time

Match events

25'B. Willey
39'Daniel Crisostomo
68'B. P. Rodrigues (M. Tschantret)
76'Substitution 2 (T. Scott)
76'M. Tschantret (T. Scott)
76'Tyler Wolff (K. Edwards)
76'B. Willey (A. Rodriguez)
81'J. Greene (J. Hafferty)
83'P. Goodrum
84'Tim Leibold (Ryan Spaulding)
84'M. Malango (A. Midence)
87'K. Edwards (J. Timmer)
88'J. Casas
90+2'T. Scott
90'J. Casas (A. Essel)

Sacramento RepublicLexington

1.1
Goals/game: 1.0; 1.0
Conceded/game: 1.5

AI match analysis

Sacramento Republic win

47%

Draw

26%

Lexington win

27%

46%BTTS

40.4%Over 2.5

36.8%Sacramento Republic clean sheet

27.3%Lexington clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-1

Data suggests a tightly contested match between Sacramento Republic and Lexington, with both teams displaying similar recent form. The statistical analysis indicates that Sacramento's strong home record could give them an edge, yet Lexington's mixed performance away from home raises questions about their defensive solidity. Historically, their recent head-to-head matches have favored draws, indicating another close battle could unfold.

Sacramento Republic unbeaten in last 3 home matches
Lexington has struggled defensively, conceding 1.5 goals per game on average
Previous head-to-head encounters have ended in draws
Both teams recently showed difficulty in scoring, with low averages in goals per game

AI ConfidenceHigh confidence

83/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is moderate, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Sacramento Republic

Strong home recordSacramento Republic
Sacramento Republic have won 6 of their last 10 home matches.
6/10 home wins
Weak away recordLexington
Lexington have won 2 of their last 10 away matches.
2/10 away wins
Tighter defenseSacramento Republic
Sacramento Republic are conceding just 1 goals per game over their recent matches.
1/game conceded
Sharper attackSacramento Republic
Sacramento Republic are averaging 1.1 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
1.1/game

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pickExact score missed

We picked Sacramento Republic at 47% — final result was Sacramento Republic win, Sacramento Republic 1-0 Lexington.

Predicted score was 1-1.

This was a high confidence pick (83/100) — and it paid off.

Closing odds vs. our model

Sacramento Republic ✓1.94market 51.6% · model 47%

Draw3.38market 29.6% · model 26%

Lexington3.53market 28.3% · model 27%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

Sacramento Republic have averaged 1.1 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Lexington have averaged 1 goal scored per game over their last 10 matches.

Head-to-head

Last 2 meetings

0Sacramento Republic wins

2Draws

0Lexington wins

2-2Goals

Lexington

2–2Oct 17, 2025, 10:00 PM

Sacramento Republic

0–0Jul 20, 2025, 3:00 AM

Lexington

Odds comparison

Match winner

Sacramento Republic1.94▼best 2.07

Draw3.38▲best 3.70

Lexington3.53▲best 3.85

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.95▼best 2.03

Under 2.51.79▲best 1.82

Both teams to score

Yes1.78best 1.83

No1.89best 2.00

Double chance

Sacramento Republic/Draw1.25▼best 1.36

Sacramento Republic/Lexington1.25▼best 1.29

Draw/Lexington1.74▲best 1.83

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes2.50best 2.50

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.50best 1.50

Clean Sheet - Away — Yes4.00best 4.00

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.22best 1.22

Average and best price across 11 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Sacramento Republic1.94▼ 0.05

Draw3.38▲ 0.06

Lexington3.53▲ 0.16

15 Aug – 16 Aug

Model vs market

Sacramento Republic win-0.1pp

47%

Market

47.1%

Draw-1pp

26%

Market

27%

Lexington win+1.2pp

27%

Market

25.8%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.