Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising
Match events
- 19'Tyler Wolff (M. Malango)
- 27'Memo Rodríguez (Daniel Crisostomo)
- 45'I. Sacko (D. Gomez)
- 46'C. Dennis (L. Biasi)
- 48'Daniel Crisostomo
- 54'M. Malango (Ryan Spaulding)
- 64'A. Pelayo (Rafael Czichos)
- 64'D. Gomez (Tate Schmitt)
- 72'Tyler Wolff (C. Jennings)
- 72'Daniel Crisostomo (A. Rodriguez)
- 76'Collin Smith
- 76'Collin Smith (G. Studenhofft)
- 83'D. Flores (Damian Rivera)
- 85'I. Sacko (Tate Schmitt)
- 90+1'Memo Rodríguez (K. Edwards)
- 90+1'J. Casas (A. Essel)
- 90+6'L. Biasi
- 1.0
- Goals/game
- 1.2
- 0.8
- Conceded/game
- 0.9
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 1-0
The data suggests a competitive matchup as Sacramento Republic shows strength at home, being unbeaten in their last five home games and averaging a solid record in front of their fans. Meanwhile, Phoenix Rising struggles in away fixtures, with only two wins out of ten this season, which may impact their performance. Historical head-to-head results indicate closely contested games, though Sacramento has a slight edge. Given these factors, a narrow victory could be likely for the home side.
- Sacramento Republic unbeaten in last 5 home games
- Phoenix Rising has a poor away record with only 2 wins
- Recent head-to-head matches are closely contested but favor Sacramento
- Sacramento averages 1 goal scored and 0.8 conceded at home this season
Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Sacramento Republic
- Strong home recordSacramento Republic
Sacramento Republic have won 6 of their last 10 home matches.
6/10 home wins - Weak away recordPhoenix Rising
Phoenix Rising have won 2 of their last 11 away matches.
2/11 away wins - Higher league positionSacramento Republic
Sacramento Republic sit 5 places above Phoenix Rising in the table.
#6 vs #11 - Sharper attackPhoenix Rising
Phoenix Rising are averaging 1.2 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
1.2/game
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Sacramento Republic at 51% — final result was a draw, Sacramento Republic 2-2 Phoenix Rising.
Predicted score was 1-0.
This was a high confidence pick (88/100) that didn't come through — a reminder that no forecast is guaranteed.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Sacramento Republic have averaged 1 goal scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Phoenix Rising have averaged 1.2 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
- Both teams scored in 5 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.
Head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
Sacramento Republic
Phoenix RisingPhoenix RisingSacramento RepublicSacramento RepublicPhoenix RisingPhoenix RisingSacramento RepublicSacramento RepublicPhoenix RisingPhoenix RisingSacramento RepublicSacramento RepublicPhoenix RisingSacramento RepublicPhoenix RisingOdds comparison
Match winner
Total goals (2.5 line)
Both teams to score
Double chance
Clean sheet
Average and best price across 12 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Sacramento Republic | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | +9 | 31 | WDLW |
| 11 | Phoenix Rising | 21 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 26 | WLDD |
Pre-match comparison
Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.
When do they score?
Sacramento Republic
Phoenix Rising
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Birmingham LegionFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising?+
Our AI model favors Sacramento Republic to win, with a 51% probability (Draw 25%, Phoenix Rising 24%).
What time does Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 23, 2026, 3:00 AM (your local time, based on your device).