Samgurali vs Rustavi — Erovnuli Liga

Erovnuli Liga· Regular Season - 23

Samgurali

1–1Full-time

Rustavi

DLWLWLGoals 15-225th in league

LWLDWWGoals 16-141st in league

Home5W 3D 3L(15-14)

Away3W 6D 3L(12-12)

Today

Lineups~1h before

Kickoff

Half-time

Full-time

Match events

15'N. Chikovani
16'L. Gilmore
27'David Oliveira
66'K. Ceijas (M. Gambos)
66'Jean (L. Parkadze)
66'A. Gujabidze (K. Kakashvili)
68'V. Patsatsia
76'O. Patarkatsishvili
76'T. Gaprindashvili (N. Tsetskhladze)
76'I. Siradze (D. Krasovski)
76'I. Bidzinashvili (Gean Rodrigues)
82'N. Tsetskhladze (G. Gogia)
83'Y. Nakano (N. Japaridze)
86'S. Kessi (I. Iakobidze)

Lineups unavailable for this match.

SamguraliRustavi

1.5
Goals/game: 1.6; 2.2
Conceded/game: 1.4

AI match analysis

Samgurali win

31%

Draw

30%

Rustavi win

39%

65.1%BTTS

65.1%Over 2.5

15%Samgurali clean sheet

23.5%Rustavi clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-2

The data suggests that Rustavi enters this match in stronger form, having won 4 of their last 5 matches, while Samgurali has struggled at home with 3 losses in their last 5 games. Rustavi's position at the top of the league and their consistent scoring average could make it challenging for Samgurali. With the implied probabilities indicating a lean towards Rustavi, they are likely to secure the victory in this matchup.

Rustavi is currently ranked 1st in the league, while Samgurali is 6th.
Samgurali has lost 3 of their last 5 home matches.
Rustavi maintains strong recent form with 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
Historically, Rustavi averages 1.6 goals scored per game compared to Samgurali's 1.5.

AI ConfidenceModerate confidence

66/100

Confidence is moderate because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Rustavi

Strong home recordSamgurali
Samgurali have won 5 of their last 11 home matches.
5/11 home wins
Weak away recordRustavi
Rustavi have won 3 of their last 12 away matches.
3/12 away wins
Tighter defenseRustavi
Rustavi are conceding just 1.4 goals per game over their recent matches.
1.4/game conceded
Higher league positionRustavi
Rustavi sit 4 places above Samgurali in the table.
#1 vs #5

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 39% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
No head-to-head history
These two teams have no recorded meetings, so the prediction relies on form and standings alone.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pickExact score missed

We picked Rustavi at 39% — final result was a draw, Samgurali 1-1 Rustavi.

Predicted score was 1-2.

The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (66/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.

Closing odds vs. our model

Rustavi2.23market 44.9% · model 39%

Samgurali2.93market 34.1% · model 31%

Draw ✓3.11market 32.2% · model 30%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

Samgurali have averaged 1.5 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Rustavi have averaged 1.6 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.

Head-to-head

No previous meetings on record.

Odds comparison

Match winner

Samgurali2.93▲best 3.19

Draw3.11▼best 3.30

Rustavi2.23▼best 2.30

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.93best 2.02

Under 2.51.78best 1.83

Both teams to score

Yes1.72▲best 1.75

No1.97▼best 2.00

Double chance

Samgurali/Draw1.52▲best 1.57

Samgurali/Rustavi1.28▲best 1.35

Draw/Rustavi1.32▼best 1.38

Average and best price across 12 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Samgurali2.93▲ 0.11

Draw3.11▲ 0.03

Rustavi2.23▼ 0.03

30 Aug – 30 Aug

Model vs market

Samgurali win+0.3pp

31%

Market

30.7%

Draw+1.1pp

30%

Market

28.9%

Rustavi win-1.4pp

39%

Market

40.4%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.