Santa Clara vs Famalicao — Primeira Liga

Primeira Liga· Regular Season - 3

Santa Clara

1–0Full-time

Famalicao

WLWWDWGoals 12-93rd in league

LWLLWLGoals 17-1514th in league

Home1W 1D 0L(3-2)

Away0W 1D 1L(1-2)

Today

Lineups~1h before

Kickoff

Half-time

Full-time

Match events

22'Gonçalo Paciência (Sorriso)
27'Vinícius Lopes
46'Gil Dias (Romeo Beney)
62'Sorriso (Brenner)
62'Vinícius Lopes (Welinton Torrao)
65'P. Santos (O. Aranda)
73'Gonçalo Paciência (Fernando)
73'Daniel Borges (T. Ribeiro)
75'L. Realpe
80'M. De Amorim
81'L. Realpe (T. Szucs)
86'Pedro Francisco (M. Jangeal)
86'G. Koutsias (R. Almeida)
87'J. Tavares (H. Silva)
88'M. Jangeal

Lineups unavailable for this match.

Santa ClaraFamalicao

1.2
Goals/game: 1.7; 0.9
Conceded/game: 1.5

AI match analysis

Santa Clara win

34%

Draw

33%

Famalicao win

33%

53.9%BTTS

49.4%Over 2.5

27.3%Santa Clara clean sheet

25.9%Famalicao clean sheet

Predicted score: 2-1

Data suggests that Santa Clara has a favorable historical performance against Famalicao, having won 3 of their last 5 encounters. Additionally, Santa Clara's solid form at home, despite being unbeaten, could give them an edge, while Famalicao's struggles with defense, allowing an average of 1.5 goals per game, may impact their chances.

Santa Clara unbeaten in last 5 meetings against Famalicao
Famalicao has conceded an average of 1.5 goals per game in their last 10 matches
Santa Clara currently placed 7th in the league with 4 points from 2 games

AI ConfidenceModerate confidence

68/100

Confidence is moderate because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Santa Clara

Strong recent formSanta Clara
Santa Clara are unbeaten in their last 5 matches, including 3 wins.
3W 2D 0L
Poor recent formFamalicao
Famalicao have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
1W 1D 3L
Sharper attackFamalicao
Famalicao are averaging 1.7 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
1.7/game
Tighter defenseSanta Clara
Santa Clara are conceding just 0.9 goals per game over their recent matches.
0.9/game conceded

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 34% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pickExact score missed

We picked Santa Clara at 34% — final result was Santa Clara win, Santa Clara 1-0 Famalicao.

Predicted score was 2-1.

The model itself only flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (68/100) — a closer call that happened to land right.

Closing odds vs. our model

Santa Clara ✓2.77market 36.1% · model 34%

Famalicao2.79market 35.8% · model 33%

Draw2.89market 34.6% · model 33%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

Santa Clara have averaged 1.2 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Famalicao have averaged 1.7 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

2Santa Clara wins

1Draws

5Famalicao wins

6-11Goals

Santa Clara

2–1May 10, 2025, 2:30 PM

Famalicao

1–2Dec 30, 2024, 8:15 PM

Santa Clara

1–3Feb 19, 2023, 3:30 PM

Famalicao

1–0Aug 28, 2022, 2:30 PM

Santa Clara

Famalicao

0–0Mar 12, 2022, 3:30 PM

Santa Clara

0–2Oct 23, 2021, 2:30 PM

Famalicao

1–0May 7, 2021, 6:00 PM

Santa Clara

1–2Jan 17, 2021, 5:30 PM

Famalicao

Odds comparison

Match winner

Santa Clara2.77▲best 2.90

Draw2.89▼best 3.00

Famalicao2.79▼best 2.95

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.52.70▲best 2.88

Under 2.51.44▼best 1.53

Both teams to score

Yes2.15▲best 2.25

No1.64▼best 1.73

Double chance

Santa Clara/Draw1.41▲best 1.45

Santa Clara/Famalicao1.38▲best 1.44

Draw/Famalicao1.42▼best 1.48

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.44▲best 1.50

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes2.55▼best 2.60

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.47▲best 1.50

Clean Sheet - Away — Yes2.65▼best 2.80

Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Santa Clara2.77▲ 0.26

Draw2.89▼ 0.07

Famalicao2.79▼ 0.17

20 Aug – 23 Aug

Model vs market

Santa Clara win+0.1pp

34%

Market

33.9%

Draw+0.6pp

33%

Market

32.4%

Famalicao win-0.6pp

33%

Market

33.6%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.