Santos vs Macara

CONMEBOL Sudamericana· Round of 16

Santos

2–1Full-time

Macara

DDWDDLGoals 15-82nd in league

WWWDDLGoals 14-41st in league

Home1W 2D 0L(6-3)

Away2W 1D 0L(3-0)

Match events

5'Franco Posse (M. Viera)
25'Gabriel Menino (D. Fernandes)
44'Gabriel Bontempo (B. Rollheiser)
44'Gabriel Barbosa (Neymar)
45+6'L. Ayala
46'L. Ayala (Jordán Mohor)
50'Gabriel Barbosa
50'Goal cancelled — Gabriel Barbosa
56'Gabriel Barbosa (Neymar)
56'Goal Disallowed - offside — Gabriel Barbosa
62'Gonzalo Escobar
62'Álvaro Barreal
70'Matías Miranda (M. Tello)
73'J. Cazares
76'Willian Arão (Neymar)
77'Rodrigo Rodríguez
78'Gabriel Barbosa
80'Jean Carlos Estacio
80'Rodrigo Rodríguez
83'Álvaro Barreal (Rony)
83'Álvaro Barreal
85'Jean Carlos Estacio (J. Klinger)
85'A. I. Campana (C. Caicedo)
90+2'Denilson Bolanos
90+4'Franco Posse (L. Ferro)
90+5'Rony
90'Jordán Mohor

Lineups

Santos

Macara

4-2-3-1

CucaCoach

Guillermo Sanguinetti

AI match analysis

Santos win

68%

Draw

22%

Macara win

10%

40.9%BTTS

33.7%Over 2.5

33.3%Santos clean sheet

38.7%Macara clean sheet

Predicted score: 2-1

The data suggests a favorable position for Santos, who are unbeaten in their last five matches, holding a strong home record. Macara's away performance is impressive as well, having won two of their last three, but they face a tough matchup against a goal-scoring Santos side that averages 1.5 goals at home. The numbers favor Santos slightly, especially considering their recent form and home advantage.

Santos unbeaten in last 5 matches with 4 wins and 1 draw
Macara has not lost in last 3 away games, winning 2
Santos has scored an average of 1.5 goals per home game this season
Macara has conceded only 0.4 goals per game in their last 10 matches.

AI ConfidenceHigh confidence

93/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Santos

Weak home recordSantos
Santos have won 1 of their last 3 home matches.
1/3 home wins
Strong away recordMacara
Macara have won 2 of their last 3 away matches.
2/3 away wins
Sharper attackMacara
Macara are averaging 1.4 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
1.4/game
Tighter defenseMacara
Macara are conceding just 0.4 goals per game over their recent matches.
0.4/game conceded

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pick✓ Exact score

We picked Santos at 68% — final result was Santos win, Santos 2-1 Macara.

Predicted score was 2-1.

This was a high confidence pick (93/100) — and it paid off.

Closing odds vs. our model

Santos ✓1.37market 73.1% · model 68%

Draw4.56market 21.9% · model 22%

Macara8.79market 11.4% · model 10%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

Santos have averaged 1.5 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Macara have averaged 1.4 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.

Head-to-head

Last 1 meetings

0Santos wins

1Draws

0Macara wins

0-0Goals

Macara

0–0Aug 20, 2026, 10:00 PM

Santos

Odds comparison

Match winner

Santos1.37▼best 1.43

Draw4.56▲best 5.00

Macara8.79▲best 10.80

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.81▲best 1.90

Under 2.51.98▼best 2.10

Both teams to score

Yes2.12▲best 2.25

No1.66▼best 1.76

Double chance

Santos/Draw1.07▼best 1.10

Santos/Macara1.18▼best 1.23

Draw/Macara2.97▲best 3.22

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes1.79▼best 1.85

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.93▲best 2.00

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.10▼best 1.10

Clean Sheet - Away — Yes6.63▲best 7.00

Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Santos1.37▼ 0.01

Draw4.56▼ 0.09

Macara8.79▲ 1.06

10 Aug – 13 Aug

Model vs market

Santos win-0.7pp

AI

68%

Market

68.7%

Draw+1.4pp

AI

22%

Market

20.6%

Macara win-0.7pp

AI

10%

Market

10.7%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

League standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
2	Santos	6	1	4	1	+2	7	WDDDD
1	Macara	6	2	4	0	+3	10	DDDWW

Pre-match comparison

1.5Goals scored per game1.4

0.8Goals conceded per game0.4

Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.

Referee

Kevin Ortega

6.75Yellow cards / game

1.25Red cards / game

1Penalties scored / game

Based on 4 matches officiated (our own data).

When do they score?

Santos

0-15'

0%

16-30'

0%

31-45'

0%

46-60'

0%

61-75'

50%

76-90+'

50%

Macara

0-15'

0%

16-30'

0%

31-45'

0%

46-60'

0%

61-75'

100%

76-90+'

0%

Match statistics

71%Possession29%

1.83Expected goals (xG)1.14

8Shots on target1

13Total shots6

3Shots off target3

2Blocked shots2

9Shots inside the box2

4Shots outside the box4

5Corners1

2Offsides1

8Fouls21

4Yellow cards6

—Red cards—

0Goalkeeper saves6

581Total passes238

485Accurate passes151

83%Pass accuracy63%

Player ratings

1Willian ArãoSantos⚽ 18.2
2Rodrigo RodríguezMacara🟨8.0
3Joao SchmidtSantos7.9
4NeymarSantos🅰️ 27.9
5D. FernandesSantos7.5
6Gabriel BarbosaSantos⚽ 1🟨7.3

Box score

Santos

77Gabriel BrazãoG · 90'

6.3

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes9%

Tackles—

Duels—

25Gabriel MeninoD · 25'

6.6

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes19%

Tackles1

Duels83%

31Gonzalo EscobarD · 90'

🟨6.2

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes41%

Tackles1

Duels57%

28Christian OlivaM · 90'

7.0

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes58%

Tackles3

Duels57%

5

5Joao SchmidtM · 90'

7.9

More stats

Shots1/1 on target

Passes57%

Tackles2

Duels100%

8

8Gabriel BontempoM · 42'

6.9

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes20%

Tackles—

Duels75%

22Álvaro BarrealM · 83'

🟨7.2

More stats

Shots1/1 on target

Passes35%

Tackles1

Duels60%

9Gabriel BarbosaF · 90'

⚽ 1🟨7.3

More stats

Shots2/2 on target

Passes19%

Tackles—

Duels17%

14

14Luan PeresD · 90'

6.7

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes72%

Tackles1

Duels67%

15Willian ArãoD · 90'

⚽ 18.2

More stats

Shots2/3 on target

Passes80%

Tackles—

Duels50%

10Neymar (C)M · 90'

🅰️ 27.9

More stats

Shots2/3 on target

Passes38%

Tackles—

Duels54%

Bench (12)

32

32B. RollheiserF · 48'

6.2

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes15%

Tackles—

Duels33%

98Adonis FríasD

—

26

26João Paulo AnaniasD

—

17

17G. CaballeroF

—

1DiogenesG

—

81

81Samuel MendesM

—

30

30MiguelitoM

—

27

27D. FernandesF · 65'

7.5

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes22%

Tackles1

Duels80%

16ThacianoM

—

7

7Robinho JúniorF

—

11RonyF · 16'

🟨6.7

More stats

Shots0/1 on target

Passes—

Tackles1

Duels75%

34

34João PauloG

—

Macara

21

21S. EtchebarneD · 90'

6.3

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes13%

Tackles1

Duels100%

13

13L. AyalaD · 45'

🟨6.2

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes8%

Tackles2

Duels29%

14

14J. Marrufo (C)D · 90'

6.3

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes10%

Tackles1

Duels50%

25Denilson BolanosD · 90'

🟨6.5

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes15%

Tackles3

Duels50%

16

16J. CazaresM · 90'

🟨7.0

More stats

Shots0/1 on target

Passes31%

Tackles4

Duels50%

5Jean Carlos EstacioM · 84'

🟨6.3

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes15%

Tackles4

Duels38%

1

1Rodrigo RodríguezG · 90'

🟨8.0

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes2%

Tackles—

Duels—

28

28A. I. CampanaM · 85'

5.9

More stats

Shots0/1 on target

Passes8%

Tackles—

Duels20%

10

10Matías MirandaM · 70'

6.7

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes20%

Tackles1

Duels57%

20

20M. VieraM · 90'

🅰️ 16.5

More stats

Shots0/1 on target

Passes13%

Tackles—

Duels20%

9

9Franco PosseF · 89'

⚽ 17.3

More stats

Shots1/1 on target

Passes8%

Tackles—

Duels20%

Bench (11)

12

12D. CueroG

—

4

4J. JiménezD

—

27Jordán MohorM · 45'

🟨6.3

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes3%

Tackles2

Duels33%

77

77J. ChalaF

—

26

26Marlon MedrandaD

—

3

3Juan EspinozaD

—

30Tommy ChambaM

—

87

87J. KlingerF · 15'

6.3

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes1%

Tackles—

Duels—

15

15M. TelloM · 20'

6.5

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes3%

Tackles—

Duels0%

50

50C. CaicedoM · 14'

6.7

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes1%

Tackles1

Duels50%

22

22L. FerroF · 1'

—

Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win Santos vs Macara?+

Our AI model favors Santos to win, with a 68% probability (Draw 22%, Macara 10%).

What time does Santos vs Macara kick off?+

Kickoff is at Aug 13, 2026, 10:00 PM (your local time, based on your device).

Value found

Match events

Lineups

AI match analysis

Why AI favors Santos

What could change the prediction

How did our prediction do?

Closing odds vs. our model

Match trends

Head-to-head

Odds comparison

Match winner

Total goals (2.5 line)

Both teams to score

Double chance

Clean sheet

Match winner — odds movement

Model vs market

League standings

Pre-match comparison

Referee

When do they score?

Match statistics

Player ratings

Box score

Santos

Macara

Frequently asked questions