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Sarmiento Junin vs Estudiantes L.P.

Liga Profesional Argentina· Clausura - 6
Sarmiento Junin
2–0Full-time
Estudiantes L.P.
WDWWGoals 9-92nd in league
LDWWGoals 13-71st in league
Home3W 0D 1L(8-4)
Away4W 3D 1L(8-3)
Today
Lineups~1h before
Kickoff
Half-time
Full-time

Match events

  1. 7'Lucas Alario
  2. 18'Mauricio Martinez (J. Mavilla)
  3. 26'J. Contrera
  4. 40'J. Pereyra
  5. 46'E. Meza (E. Mancuso)
  6. 46'Perez Fabricio (Edwuin Cetre)
  7. 54'L. Suarez
  8. 58'J. Contrera (U. Gimenez)
  9. 65'B. Aguirre (J. Burgos)
  10. 65'J. Pereyra (José Sosa)
  11. 68'J. Herrera (D. Churín)
  12. 68'J. Mavilla (G. Gonzalez)
  13. 75'Alexis Castro (Guido Carrillo)
  14. 80'G. Gonzalez (Junior Marabel)
  15. 82'Junior Marabel (G. Arturia)
  16. 82'Joaquín Correa
  17. 86'Joaquín Correa (Joaquín Correa)
  18. 90+3'E. Mancuso

Lineups

Sarmiento Junin
Estudiantes L.P.
4-4-24-2-3-1
12
12. Thyago Ayala
3
3. L. Suarez
2. Juan Manuel Insaurralde
44
44. Renzo Orihuela
8
8. Santiago Salle
21
← 68'
21. J. Mavilla
15
15. Cristian Zabala
16. Mauricio Martinez
19
← 58'
19. J. Contrera
24
← 68'
24. J. Herrera
← 82'
27. Junior Marabel
27. Lucas Alario
28
← 65'
28. B. Aguirre
32. Joaquín Correa
29
← 46'
29. Perez Fabricio
← 75'
22. Alexis Castro
21
21. L. Piovi
36
← 65'
36. J. Pereyra
24
24. Tomás Palacios
4
4. Santiago Núñez
20
← 46'
20. E. Meza
16
16. F. Muslera
Facundo SavaCoachAlexander Medina
Bench (12)
Bench (12)
Sarmiento JuninEstudiantes L.P.
0.9
Goals/game
1.3
0.9
Conceded/game
0.7

AI match analysis

Sarmiento Junin win
28.67%
Draw
32.09%
Estudiantes L.P. win
39.24%
36.7%BTTS
29.6%Over 2.5
33.3%Sarmiento Junin clean sheet
44.9%Estudiantes L.P. clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-1

The data suggests a competitive matchup with both teams showing mixed recent forms. While Sarmiento Junin has been resilient at home historically against Estudiantes L.P., the away team’s current form and superior league standing could give them an edge. The scoring averages indicate a closely contested match, possibly leading to a draw.

  • Sarmiento Junin unbeaten in last 4 home matches against Estudiantes L.P.
  • Estudiantes L.P. has a strong away record this season with 4 wins from 8 matches.
  • Sarmiento Junin has scored an average of 0.9 goals and conceded 0.9 goals in the last 10 matches.
AI ConfidenceModerate confidence
73/100

Confidence is high because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Estudiantes L.P.

  • Strong recent formSarmiento Junin

    Sarmiento Junin are unbeaten in their last 5 matches, including 3 wins.

    3W 2D 0L
  • Good recent formEstudiantes L.P.

    Estudiantes L.P. have won 3 of their last 5 matches.

    3W 1D 1L
  • Historical edgeEstudiantes L.P.

    Estudiantes L.P. have won 4 of the last 6 meetings between these two teams.

    4/6 H2H wins
  • Higher league positionEstudiantes L.P.

    Estudiantes L.P. sit 1 place above Sarmiento Junin in the table.

    #1 vs #2

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

  • AI and market are closely aligned

    The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

  • Close matchup

    The model gives the favorite only a 39% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pickExact score missed

We picked Estudiantes L.P. at 39.24% — final result was Sarmiento Junin win, Sarmiento Junin 2-0 Estudiantes L.P..

Predicted score was 1-1.

The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (73/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.

Closing odds vs. our model

Estudiantes L.P.2.37market 42.2% · model 39.24%
Draw2.92market 34.3% · model 32.09%
Sarmiento Junin ✓3.30market 30.3% · model 28.67%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

  • Sarmiento Junin have averaged 0.9 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Estudiantes L.P. have averaged 1.3 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Over 2.5 goals landed in 2 of the last 6 meetings between these two sides.
  • Both teams scored in 2 of the last 6 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 6 meetings

1Sarmiento Junin wins
1Draws
4Estudiantes L.P. wins
4-8Goals
Sarmiento Junin
2–0Jun 13, 2024, 10:00 PM
Estudiantes L.P.
Estudiantes L.P.
1–1Feb 25, 2023, 10:15 PM
Sarmiento Junin
Estudiantes L.P.
2–1Jun 15, 2022, 12:30 AM
Sarmiento Junin
Sarmiento Junin
0–3Jul 17, 2021, 12:15 AM
Estudiantes L.P.
Estudiantes L.P.
1–0Sep 11, 2016, 7:15 PM
Sarmiento Junin
Sarmiento Junin
0–1Oct 3, 2015, 7:15 PM
Estudiantes L.P.

Odds comparison

Match winner

Sarmiento Junin3.30▲best 3.50
Draw2.92▲best 3.02
Estudiantes L.P.2.37▲best 2.47

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.52.58best 2.74
Under 2.51.47▼best 1.50

Both teams to score

Yes2.09▲best 2.15
No1.67▼best 1.70

Double chance

Sarmiento Junin/Draw1.57best 1.62
Sarmiento Junin/Estudiantes L.P.1.37▲best 1.40
Draw/Estudiantes L.P.1.31▼best 1.33

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes2.94▼best 3.00
Clean Sheet - Away — Yes2.38▲best 2.38
Clean Sheet - Away — No1.53best 1.53
Clean Sheet - Home — No1.36best 1.36

Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Sarmiento Junin3.30
Draw2.92▼ 0.04
Estudiantes L.P.2.37▲ 0.05
20 Aug – 23 Aug

Model vs market

Sarmiento Junin win+0.3pp
AI
28.67%
Market
28.4%
Draw0pp
AI
32.09%
Market
32.1%
Estudiantes L.P. win-0.3pp
AI
39.24%
Market
39.5%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

League standings

#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
2
Sarmiento Junin
6402+412WWWL
1
Estudiantes L.P.
16943+1231WLLW

Pre-match comparison

0.9Goals scored per game1.3
0.9Goals conceded per game0.7

Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.

Referee

N. Lamolina

4.67Yellow cards / game
0.33Red cards / game
0.33Penalties scored / game

Based on 3 matches officiated (our own data).

When do they score?

Sarmiento Junin

0-15'
0%
16-30'
20%
31-45'
20%
46-60'
0%
61-75'
40%
76-90+'
20%

Estudiantes L.P.

0-15'
12.5%
16-30'
0%
31-45'
25%
46-60'
25%
61-75'
12.5%
76-90+'
25%

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Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win Sarmiento Junin vs Estudiantes L.P.?+

Our AI model favors Estudiantes L.P. to win, with a 39.24% probability (Draw 32.09%, Sarmiento Junin 28.67%).

What time does Sarmiento Junin vs Estudiantes L.P. kick off?+

Kickoff is at Aug 23, 2026, 5:45 PM (your local time, based on your device).