Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano — La Liga

La Liga· Regular Season - 1

Sevilla

2–1Full-time

Rayo Vallecano

WLLLLWGoals 13-133rd in league

LWWWLDGoals 13-1313th in league

Home1W 0D 0L(2-1)

Away0W 0D 1L(1-2)

Match events

4'Álvaro García
32'Isi Palazón
32'Goal Disallowed - Foul — Isi Palazón
45+3'Isaac Romero
46'Isaac Romero (R. Ure)
46'N. Guilen (Peque Fernández)
52'Jon Guridi
60'Jon Guridi
66'R. Nteka (Alemão)
66'Isi Palazón (Sergio Camello)
67'Álvaro García
70'M. Sierra (Ruben Vargas)
70'Álvaro García (Fran Pérez)
75'Unai López
77'Fran Pérez
78'Oso (Chidera Ejuke)
78'Unai López (Pedro Díaz)
79'Óscar Valentín (Pelayo Fernández)
81'G. Suazo
83'Jon Guridi (Manu Bueno)
88'Kike Salas
90+6'Peque Fernández
90+12'Lucien Agoume
90+12'Juan Iglesias

Lineups

Sevilla

Rayo Vallecano

4-2-3-14-2-3-1

Luis Garcia PlazaCoach

Benat San Jose

AI match analysis

Sevilla win

37.95%

Draw

32.81%

Rayo Vallecano win

29.24%

52.9%BTTS

48.2%Over 2.5

27.3%Sevilla clean sheet

27.3%Rayo Vallecano clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-1

The statistical data suggests a competitive match with closely matched teams. Sevilla shows signs of inconsistency based on their recent performance, while Rayo Vallecano presents a slightly stronger form overall. Historically, their clashes have been tightly contested, indicating a potential for a draw or a narrow win for either side.

Sevilla's last 5 matches include 3 losses and 2 wins, showing inconsistency.
Rayo Vallecano has a mixed recent form with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches.
Head-to-head history indicates that both teams have had tight contests, often resulting in draws.

AI ConfidenceModerate confidence

71/100

Confidence is high because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Sevilla

Historical edgeSevilla
Sevilla have won 3 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams.
3/8 H2H wins
Higher league positionSevilla
Sevilla sit 10 places above Rayo Vallecano in the table.
#3 vs #13
Poor recent formSevilla
Sevilla have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
2W 0D 3L
Sharper attackRayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano are averaging 1.3 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
1.3/game

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 38% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pickExact score missed

We picked Sevilla at 37.95% — final result was Sevilla win, Sevilla 2-1 Rayo Vallecano.

Predicted score was 1-1.

The model itself only flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (71/100) — a closer call that happened to land right.

Closing odds vs. our model

Sevilla ✓2.46market 40.6% · model 37.95%

Draw3.01market 33.2% · model 32.81%

Rayo Vallecano3.19market 31.4% · model 29.24%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

Sevilla have averaged 1.3 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Rayo Vallecano have averaged 1.3 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 2 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

3Sevilla wins

4Draws

1Rayo Vallecano wins

9-7Goals

Sevilla

1–1Mar 8, 2026, 5:30 PM

Rayo Vallecano

0–1Sep 28, 2025, 12:00 PM

Sevilla

Rayo Vallecano

1–1Mar 1, 2025, 3:15 PM

Sevilla

1–0Nov 24, 2024, 3:15 PM

Rayo Vallecano

1–2Feb 5, 2024, 8:00 PM

Sevilla

2–2Oct 7, 2023, 7:00 PM

Rayo Vallecano

1–1Feb 19, 2023, 3:15 PM

Sevilla

0–1Oct 29, 2022, 4:30 PM

Rayo Vallecano

Odds comparison

Match winner

Sevilla2.46▲best 2.55

Draw3.01▼best 3.13

Rayo Vallecano3.19best 3.36

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.52.36▲best 2.49

Under 2.51.59▼best 1.63

Both teams to score

Yes1.94▲best 2.00

No1.80▼best 1.87

Double chance

Sevilla/Draw1.35▲best 1.39

Sevilla/Rayo Vallecano1.37▲best 1.43

Draw/Rayo Vallecano1.55▼best 1.62

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Away — Yes3.25▼best 3.25

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.31▲best 1.33

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.44▲best 1.45

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes2.58▼best 2.62

Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Sevilla2.46▲ 0.24

Draw3.01▼ 0.11

Rayo Vallecano3.19▼ 0.08

12 Aug – 15 Aug

Model vs market

Sevilla win-0.6pp

AI

37.95%

Market

38.6%

Draw+1.2pp

AI

32.81%

Market

31.6%

Rayo Vallecano win-0.6pp

AI

29.24%

Market

29.8%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.