Song Yadong vs Umar Nurmagomedov

UFC· UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song· Bantamweight· Main Event
LWWL
Kung Fu Kid
Ht 173cmWt 62kgReach 170cmStance Orthodox
Alpha Male
WWWW
Ht 173cmWt 62kgReach 175cmStance Orthodox
AKA (American Kickboxing Academy)
Kicks off in

Value found

+50.3% edge

Song Yadong win

3.33AI fair odds
5.01Bookmaker odds
+50.3%Value

Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.

Today
Fight time
In Progress
Result

AI fight analysis

Preliminary — updates once lineups are confirmed

Song Yadong win
30%
Umar Nurmagomedov win
70%

The data suggests a favorable position for Umar Nurmagomedov, primarily due to his recent undefeated streak against a series of notable fighters. While Song Yadong has managed to secure wins against good competition, his losses have been significant and may weigh on his performance. Given Nurmagomedov's reach advantage and consistent fight history, the statistical indicators lean towards him as the stronger contender in this matchup.

  • Umar Nurmagomedov has a 5-fight win streak, showcasing strong recent performance.
  • Nurmagomedov possesses a reach advantage of 5cm, which may enhance his striking range.
  • Song Yadong has displayed resilience, with 3 wins in his last 5 bouts, but his losses came against high-caliber opponents.
AI ConfidenceHigh confidence
91/100

Confidence is high because the win-probability gap between the two fighters is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and both fighters' career records and recent fight history are available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly. Shown in English — a localized version is being prepared.

Why AI favors Umar Nurmagomedov

  • Reach advantageUmar Nurmagomedov

    Umar Nurmagomedov has a 5cm reach advantage over their opponent, a real edge in striking exchanges at range.

    175cm reach

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

  • Limited professional record

    Song Yadong and Umar Nurmagomedov have a thin professional fight record on file, so career-stat signals here are based on a small sample.

Odds comparison

Moneyline

Song Yadong5.01best 5.62AI 30%
Umar Nurmagomedov1.17best 1.18AI 70%

Average price across 7 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Moneyline — odds movement

Song Yadong5.01 0.56
Umar Nurmagomedov1.17 0.04
15 Aug28 Aug

Model vs market

Song Yadong win+11.1pp
AI
30%
Market
18.9%
Umar Nurmagomedov win-11.1pp
AI
70%
Market
81.1%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

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Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win Song Yadong vs Umar Nurmagomedov?+

Our AI model favors Umar Nurmagomedov to win, with a 70% probability (Song Yadong 30%).

What time does Song Yadong vs Umar Nurmagomedov start?+

This fight is scheduled for Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 PM (your local time, based on your device).

What are the career records of Song Yadong and Umar Nurmagomedov?+

Song Yadong is 0-0-0 (W-L-D). Umar Nurmagomedov is 0-0-0 (W-L-D).