Southampton vs West Ham
Value found
+23.8% edgeWest Ham win
Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.
Match events
- 10'L. Scienza
- 26'C. Bragg
- 34'L. Scienza
- 41'J. Ajala (L. Orford)
- 53'J. Ajala
- 59'J. Ajala (M. Solomon)
- 59'J. Piroe (Valentín Castellanos)
- 59'K. Lamadrid (Jarrod Bowen)
- 59'M. Kante (Arne Engels)
- 60'T. Fellows (K. Matsuki)
- 60'L. Scienza (Samuel Edozie)
- 60'C. Bragg (F. Downes)
- 66'R. Akachukwu (F. Azaz)
- 75'Valentín Castellanos (Joël Veltman)
- 80'Lewis Dobbin (C. Larin)
- 84'Jarrod Bowen (L. Orford)
- 87'D. Mukasa (K. Casey)
Lineups
- 1.8
- Goals/game
- 1.6
- 1.2
- Conceded/game
- 1.3
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 1-2
The numbers favor West Ham slightly, as they have a better recent scoring record than Southampton. Southampton has performed reasonably well at home, but their head-to-head history with West Ham indicates a competitive nature. Overall, recent form and head-to-head matches suggest a close encounter, potentially leaning towards an away victory.
- Southampton scored 1.8 goals per game in their last 10 matches
- West Ham averages 1.6 goals scored per game recently
- Last 5 head-to-head matches show a close competition between both teams with mixed results
Confidence is moderate because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and some historical data (form, H2H or standings) is still incomplete.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors West Ham
- Good recent formSouthampton
Southampton have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
3W 1D 1L - Historical edgeWest Ham
West Ham have won 3 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams.
3/8 H2H wins - Sharper attackSouthampton
Southampton are averaging 1.8 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
1.8/game - Tighter defenseSouthampton
Southampton are conceding just 1.2 goals per game over their recent matches.
1.2/game conceded
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 39% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
How did our prediction do?
We picked West Ham at 39% — final result was West Ham win, Southampton 1-4 West Ham.
Predicted score was 1-2.
The model itself only flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (55/100) — a closer call that happened to land right.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Southampton have averaged 1.8 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- West Ham have averaged 1.6 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
- Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.
Head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
West Ham
SouthamptonSouthamptonWest HamWest HamSouthamptonSouthamptonWest HamSouthamptonWest HamWest HamSouthamptonSouthamptonWest HamWest HamSouthamptonOdds comparison
Match winner
Total goals (2.5 line)
Both teams to score
Double chance
Clean sheet
Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Pre-match comparison
Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.
When do they score?
Southampton
West Ham
Frequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Southampton vs West Ham?+
Our AI model favors West Ham to win, with a 39% probability (Draw 25%, Southampton 36%).
What time does Southampton vs West Ham kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 25, 2026, 6:45 PM (your local time, based on your device).