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Spartak Varna vs Septemvri Sofia

First League· Regular Season - 5
Spartak Varna
0–1Full-time
Septemvri Sofia
WWLLGoals 12-169th in league
WLWDGoals 10-106th in league
Home1W 1D 1L(3-3)
Away1W 1D 2L(3-6)
Stadion Spartak

Stadion Spartak, Varna · Capacity 12,000 · grass · Referee: Stanimir Trenchev

Today
Lineups~1h before
Kickoff
Half-time
Full-time

Match events

  1. 20'Kubrat Onashchi
  2. 33'A. Liberal
  3. 39'A. Granchov
  4. 59'B. Hanne (A. Ivanov)
  5. 61'A. Liberal (Y. Baurenski)
  6. 63'A. Dzhamov (S. Stoichkov)
  7. 71'Tomás Silva (Bua)
  8. 71'Tomás Silva (Buá)
  9. 71'R. Sousa (S. Major)
  10. 71'A. Ahmedov (T. Chunchukov)
  11. 74'D. Valverde
  12. 79'Y. Baurenski (G. Ivanov)
  13. 79'T. Marinov (G. Trifonov)
  14. 87'A. Liberal
  15. 87'A. Liberal (Pedro Igor)
  16. 87'Frantzety Herard (E. Ribeiro)
  17. 90+3'S. Wade

Lineups

Spartak Varna
Septemvri Sofia
4-1-4-14-2-3-1
23
23. P. Iliev
4
4. B. Ivanov
44
44. A. Granchov
45
45. J. Tshitoku
76
76. D. Valverde
17
← 79'
17. T. Marinov
10
10. Jota Lopes
82
← 71'
82. Tomás Silva
6
← 71'
6. R. Sousa
11
← 59'
11. B. Hanne
70
← 71'
70. A. Ahmedov
27
← 87'
27. A. Liberal
29
← 87'
29. Frantzety Herard
8
8. Bozhidar Penchev
11
← 63'
11. A. Dzhamov
6
6. Pedro Ferreira
5
← 79'
5. Y. Baurenski
3
3. S. Wade
26
26. Valentine Ozornwafor
4
4. M. Hristov
13
13. Kubrat Onashchi
12
12. Vladimir Ivanov
Yasen PetrovCoachSimao Freitas
Bench (9)
Bench (8)
Spartak VarnaSeptemvri Sofia
1.2
Goals/game
1.0
1.6
Conceded/game
1.0

AI match analysis

Spartak Varna win
46%
Draw
30%
Septemvri Sofia win
24%
48.5%BTTS
43%Over 2.5
27.3%Spartak Varna clean sheet
33.3%Septemvri Sofia clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-1

Data suggests a tight contest between Spartak Varna and Septemvri Sofia. Spartak Varna has performed well at home, while Septemvri Sofia's poor form culminates in four losses out of five recent matches. The head-to-head record indicates competitiveness, contributing to an estimated draw rate of 30%.

  • Spartak Varna has a solid home record with 1 win and 1 draw this season.
  • Septemvri Sofia is struggling significantly, having lost their last 3 matches and remains in the relegation zone.
  • Historically, matches between the two teams have been competitive, with the last game resulting in a victory for Septemvri Sofia.
AI ConfidenceHigh confidence
80/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is moderate, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Spartak Varna

  • Weak home recordSpartak Varna

    Spartak Varna have won 1 of their last 3 home matches.

    1/3 home wins
  • Weak away recordSeptemvri Sofia

    Septemvri Sofia have won 1 of their last 4 away matches.

    1/4 away wins
  • Higher league positionSeptemvri Sofia

    Septemvri Sofia sit 3 places above Spartak Varna in the table.

    #6 vs #9
  • Poor recent formSpartak Varna

    Spartak Varna have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.

    2W 0D 3L

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

  • AI and market are closely aligned

    The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pickExact score missed

We picked Spartak Varna at 46% — final result was Septemvri Sofia win, Spartak Varna 0-1 Septemvri Sofia.

Predicted score was 1-1.

This was a high confidence pick (80/100) that didn't come through — a reminder that no forecast is guaranteed.

Closing odds vs. our model

Spartak Varna2.05market 48.9% · model 46%
Draw3.17market 31.6% · model 30%
Septemvri Sofia ✓3.54market 28.2% · model 24%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

  • Spartak Varna have averaged 1.2 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Septemvri Sofia have averaged 1 goal scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Over 2.5 goals landed in 2 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

4Spartak Varna wins
2Draws
2Septemvri Sofia wins
10-8Goals
Septemvri Sofia
1–0May 14, 2026, 12:15 PM
Spartak Varna
Septemvri Sofia
0–0Apr 16, 2026, 2:00 PM
Spartak Varna
Spartak Varna
1–4Nov 7, 2025, 1:00 PM
Septemvri Sofia
Spartak Varna
4–2Mar 16, 2025, 10:00 AM
Septemvri Sofia
Septemvri Sofia
0–1Sep 30, 2024, 5:00 PM
Spartak Varna
Spartak Varna
1–0May 31, 2023, 4:00 PM
Septemvri Sofia
Spartak Varna
2–0Apr 24, 2023, 2:30 PM
Septemvri Sofia
Septemvri Sofia
1–1Sep 30, 2022, 11:45 AM
Spartak Varna

Odds comparison

Match winner

Spartak Varna2.05▲best 2.12
Draw3.17▼best 3.35
Septemvri Sofia3.54▼best 3.91

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.52.10▲best 2.17
Under 2.51.68▼best 1.72

Both teams to score

Yes1.84▼best 1.87
No1.84▲best 1.87

Double chance

Spartak Varna/Draw1.25▲best 1.31
Spartak Varna/Septemvri Sofia1.29▲best 1.35
Draw/Septemvri Sofia1.71▼best 1.78

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.44▼best 1.44
Clean Sheet - Home — Yes2.62▲best 2.62
Clean Sheet - Away — No1.25▲best 1.25
Clean Sheet - Away — Yes3.75▼best 3.75

Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Spartak Varna2.05▲ 0.16
Draw3.17▼ 0.14
Septemvri Sofia3.54▼ 0.38
15 Aug – 17 Aug

Model vs market

Spartak Varna win+1pp
AI
46%
Market
45%
Draw+1pp
AI
30%
Market
29%
Septemvri Sofia win-2pp
AI
24%
Market
26%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

League standings

#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
9
Spartak Varna
6213-47LLWW
6
Septemvri Sofia
7223-58WWLL

Pre-match comparison

1.2Goals scored per game1
1.6Goals conceded per game1

Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.

When do they score?

Spartak Varna

0-15'
20%
16-30'
20%
31-45'
10%
46-60'
20%
61-75'
20%
76-90+'
10%

Septemvri Sofia

0-15'
0%
16-30'
0%
31-45'
16.7%
46-60'
50%
61-75'
16.7%
76-90+'
16.7%

Match statistics

—%Possession—%
—Expected goals (xG)—
—Shots on target—
—Total shots—
—Shots off target—
—Blocked shots—
—Shots inside the box—
—Shots outside the box—
—Corners—
—Offsides—
—Fouls—
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0
—Goalkeeper saves—
—Total passes—
—Accurate passes—
—%Pass accuracy—%

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Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win Spartak Varna vs Septemvri Sofia?+

Our AI model favors Spartak Varna to win, with a 46% probability (Draw 30%, Septemvri Sofia 24%).

Where is Spartak Varna vs Septemvri Sofia played?+

The match is played at Stadion Spartak, Varna (capacity 12,000).

What time does Spartak Varna vs Septemvri Sofia kick off?+

Kickoff is at Aug 17, 2026, 4:00 PM (your local time, based on your device).