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Sporting CP vs Alverca

Primeira Liga· Regular Season - 3
Sporting CP
3–1Full-time
Alverca
LDDWGoals 19-142nd in league
DLLDGoals 2-617th in league
Home2W 0D 0L(6-3)
Away0W 0D 2L(1-5)

Value found

+4% edge

Alverca win

11.11AI fair odds
11.56Bookmaker odds
+4%Value

Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.

Today
Lineups~1h before
Kickoff
Half-time
Full-time

Match events

  1. 2'M. Araujo
  2. 16'Y. Bojang
  3. 22'G. Catamo
  4. 39'D. Gui
  5. 55'G. Catamo
  6. 55'Matheus Mendes
  7. 56'V. Semedo (S. J. Merheg)
  8. 56'Rayan Lucas (André Vidigal)
  9. 59'V. Semedo (S. J. Merheg)
  10. 59'Rayan Lucas (André Vidigal)
  11. 60'L. Suarez (G. Catamo)
  12. 66'Francisco Chissumba (Marco Essimi)
  13. 69'G. Catamo (Luis Guilherme)
  14. 69'F. Goncalves (N. Irankunda)
  15. 75'Zeno Debast (Eduardo Quaresma)
  16. 75'Ian Luccas (V. Moreira)
  17. 75'Marco Essimi
  18. 76'R. Zalazar (Eduardo Quaresma)
  19. 76'L. Suarez (Rafael Nel)
  20. 76'D. Gui (Z. Kassary)
  21. 89'R. Zalazar (Pedro Lima)
  22. 89'Figueiredo (V. Moreira)

Lineups

Sporting CP
Alverca
4-2-3-14-3-3
1
1. Rui Silva
20
20. M. Araujo
55
55. Ibrahima Ba
6
← 75'
6. Zeno Debast
22
22. Iván Fresneda
77
77. I. Doumbia
5
5. Sergi Altimira
58
← 69'
58. F. Goncalves
17
← 89'
17. R. Zalazar
10
← 69'
10. G. Catamo
97
← 76'
97. L. Suarez
55
← 66'
55. Francisco Chissumba
9
← 59'
9. V. Semedo
22. Figueiredo
← 75'
25. Ian Luccas
35
← 59'
35. Rayan Lucas
6
← 76'
6. D. Gui
12
12. Isaac James
4
4. Y. Bojang
14
14. Steven Baseya
2. Nabil Touaizi
31. Matheus Mendes
Rui BorgesCoachSergio Ferreira
Bench (12)
Bench (12)
Sporting CPAlverca
1.9
Goals/game
0.5
1.4
Conceded/game
1.5

AI match analysis

Sporting CP win
78%
Draw
13%
Alverca win
9%
50.1%BTTS
49.4%Over 2.5
38.7%Sporting CP clean sheet
18.3%Alverca clean sheet

Predicted score: 2-0

Data suggests that Sporting CP enters this match in stronger form, remaining unbeaten in their last five encounters, including a recent win at home. In contrast, Alverca is struggling, having failed to score in their last three away matches and picking up only one point from their last two games. The numbers favor Sporting CP to secure a victory, likely maintaining a clean sheet against an Alverca side that averages just 0.5 goals scored in their recent outings.

  • Sporting CP unbeaten in their last 5 matches
  • Alverca has not scored in their last 3 away matches
  • Sporting CP has a strong home record with 1 win from 1 match this season
  • Alverca struggling with only 1 point from 2 matches this season
AI ConfidenceHigh confidence
93/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Sporting CP

  • Strong home recordSporting CP

    Sporting CP have won 2 of their last 2 home matches.

    2/2 home wins
  • Weak away recordAlverca

    Alverca have won 0 of their last 2 away matches.

    0/2 away wins
  • Sharper attackSporting CP

    Sporting CP are averaging 1.9 goals scored per game over their recent matches.

    1.9/game
  • Higher league positionSporting CP

    Sporting CP sit 15 places above Alverca in the table.

    #2 vs #17

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

  • Limited recent-match sample

    Alverca has fewer than 5 recent matches on record, so recent-form signals here are based on a small sample.

  • AI and market are closely aligned

    The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

  • No head-to-head history

    These two teams have no recorded meetings, so the prediction relies on form and standings alone.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pickExact score missed

We picked Sporting CP at 78% — final result was Sporting CP win, Sporting CP 3-1 Alverca.

Predicted score was 2-0.

This was a high confidence pick (93/100) — and it paid off.

Closing odds vs. our model

Sporting CP ✓1.21market 82.4% · model 78%
Draw6.53market 15.3% · model 13%
Alverca11.56market 8.7% · model 9%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

  • Sporting CP have averaged 1.9 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Alverca have averaged 0.5 goals scored per game over their last 4 matches.

Head-to-head

No previous meetings on record.

Odds comparison

Match winner

Sporting CP1.21▲best 1.25
Draw6.53▼best 7.50
Alverca11.56▼best 13.50

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.48▲best 1.53
Under 2.52.54▼best 2.65

Both teams to score

Yes2.01▲best 2.10
No1.74best 1.80

Double chance

Sporting CP/Draw1.04▲best 1.06
Sporting CP/Alverca1.10▲best 1.14
Draw/Alverca4.15▼best 4.60

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.04▲best 1.05
Clean Sheet - Away — Yes10.25▼best 11.00
Clean Sheet - Home — No1.83▼best 1.83
Clean Sheet - Home — Yes1.84▼best 1.85

Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Sporting CP1.21▲ 0.03
Draw6.53▼ 0.11
Alverca11.56▼ 1.44
19 Aug – 22 Aug

Model vs market

Sporting CP win+0.5pp
AI
78%
Market
77.5%
Draw-1.4pp
AI
13%
Market
14.4%
Alverca win+0.9pp
AI
9%
Market
8.1%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

League standings

#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
2
Sporting CP
3210+37WWD
17
Alverca
3012-41LDL

Pre-match comparison

1.9Goals scored per game0.5
1.4Goals conceded per game1.5

Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 4 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.

When do they score?

Sporting CP

0-15'
20%
16-30'
20%
31-45'
20%
46-60'
40%
61-75'
0%
76-90+'
0%

Alverca

0-15'
0%
16-30'
0%
31-45'
0%
46-60'
50%
61-75'
50%
76-90+'
0%

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Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win Sporting CP vs Alverca?+

Our AI model favors Sporting CP to win, with a 78% probability (Draw 13%, Alverca 9%).

What time does Sporting CP vs Alverca kick off?+

Kickoff is at Aug 22, 2026, 7:30 PM (your local time, based on your device).