Sporting Gijon vs Burgos — Segunda División

Segunda División· Regular Season - 2

Sporting Gijon

1–0Full-time

Burgos

LWWWLDGoals 17-156th in league

WLWWDWGoals 10-611th in league

Home1W 1D 0L(1-0)

Away0W 0D 1L(0-1)

Match events

6'Juan Otero (A. Cuenca)
32'Grego Sierra
53'José Gragera
61'M. Rodriguez (Ignacio Martín)
61'Konrad de la Fuente (Pablo García)
62'Ignasi Vilarrasa (Víctor Mollejo)
62'Javi Llabrés (Pablo Galdames)
69'Curro (S. Lencina)
69'José Gragera (Marcelo Expósito)
73'César Gelabert (Gaspar Campos)
77'S. del Cerro (Brais Martínez)
82'Juan Otero (C. Ferreres)
82'N. Iosifov (A. Sarco)

Lineups

Sporting Gijon

Burgos

4-4-24-4-2

Nicolas LarcamonCoach

Sergio Francisco

AI match analysis

Sporting Gijon win

44%

Draw

30%

Burgos win

26%

48.8%BTTS

43%Over 2.5

28.7%Sporting Gijon clean sheet

31.7%Burgos clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-1

The recent head-to-head history indicates a slight advantage for Burgos, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters against Sporting Gijon. Additionally, Burgos comes into this match with solid form, winning their last match and maintaining a consistent defensive record, conceding only 3 goals in their last 5 matches. Sporting Gijon, while having a decent home performance, managed only a draw in their recent game and has averaged more goals conceded than scored in their last 10 matches.

Burgos unbeaten in last 5 matches against Sporting Gijon
Sporting Gijon has only 1 draw in their previous home match this season
Burgos has a stronger recent form with 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 matches

AI ConfidenceHigh confidence

78/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is moderate, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Sporting Gijon

Good recent formSporting Gijon
Sporting Gijon have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
3W 1D 1L
Strong recent formBurgos
Burgos are unbeaten in their last 5 matches, including 4 wins.
4W 1D 0L
Sharper attackSporting Gijon
Sporting Gijon are averaging 1.7 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
1.7/game
Tighter defenseBurgos
Burgos are conceding just 0.6 goals per game over their recent matches.
0.6/game conceded

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 44% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pickExact score missed

We picked Sporting Gijon at 44% — final result was Sporting Gijon win, Sporting Gijon 1-0 Burgos.

Predicted score was 1-1.

This was a high confidence pick (78/100) — and it paid off.

Closing odds vs. our model

Sporting Gijon ✓2.18market 45.8% · model 44%

Draw3.01market 33.2% · model 30%

Burgos3.56market 28.1% · model 26%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

Sporting Gijon have averaged 1.7 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Burgos have averaged 1 goal scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 2 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

3Sporting Gijon wins

2Draws

3Burgos wins

8-6Goals

Burgos

1–0Apr 11, 2026, 2:15 PM

Sporting Gijon

2–3Sep 14, 2025, 4:30 PM

Burgos

Sporting Gijon

2–0Feb 1, 2025, 3:15 PM

Burgos

0–2Nov 10, 2024, 3:15 PM

Sporting Gijon

Burgos

1–0Feb 25, 2024, 3:15 PM

Sporting Gijon

2–1Sep 2, 2023, 2:15 PM

Burgos

0–0Mar 19, 2023, 1:00 PM

Sporting Gijon

0–0Aug 27, 2022, 3:30 PM

Burgos

Odds comparison

Match winner

Sporting Gijon2.18▼best 2.52

Draw3.01▲best 3.20

Burgos3.56▲best 4.00

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.52.43▼best 2.60

Under 2.51.54▲best 1.62

Both teams to score

Yes2.01▼best 2.20

No1.72▲best 1.80

Double chance

Sporting Gijon/Draw1.28▼best 1.40

Sporting Gijon/Burgos1.35▼best 1.40

Draw/Burgos1.64▲best 1.72

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes2.20▼best 2.20

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.62▲best 1.62

Clean Sheet - Away — Yes3.25▲best 3.25

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.33▼best 1.33

Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Sporting Gijon2.18▼ 0.24

Draw3.01▲ 0.08

Burgos3.56▲ 0.48

20 Aug – 23 Aug

Model vs market

Sporting Gijon win+1.2pp

AI

44%

Market

42.8%

Draw-1pp

AI

30%

Market

31%

Burgos win-0.2pp

AI

26%

Market

26.2%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.