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Stenhousemuir vs Motherwell

League Cup· Round of 16
Stenhousemuir
1–0After Extra Time
Motherwell
WLWWGoals 12-10
WDWLGoals 13-16
Ochilview Park

Ochilview Park, Stenhousemuir · Capacity 5,267 · artificial turf · Referee: C. Steven

Today
Lineups~1h before
Kickoff
Half-time
Full-time

Match events

  1. 24'I. Said
  2. 45'K. Bilham
  3. 46'I. Said (Emmanuel Longelo)
  4. 46'E. Wilson (A. Lowry)
  5. 62'T. Maswanhise (R. Charles-Cook)
  6. 62'J. Hodge (Lukas Fadinger)
  7. 65'K. Bilham (O. MacIntyre)
  8. 65'L. Hodgkiss (G. Stevenson)
  9. 75'A. Shinnie (E. O'Reilly)
  10. 80'M. Anderson (G. Buchanan)
  11. 85'Jake Girdwood-Reich (Martin Moormann)
  12. 90+3'Lukas Fadinger
  13. 91'L. Grant (M. Aitken)
  14. 104'R. Meechan
  15. 105'O. Whyte (Z. McAllister)
  16. 105'L. O'Donnell (A. Graham)
  17. 107'W. Vogt
  18. 114'E. O'Reilly
  19. 117'M. Aitken
  20. 119'E. O'Reilly
Lineups unavailable for this match.
StenhousemuirMotherwell
1.2
Goals/game
1.3
1.0
Conceded/game
1.6

AI match analysis

Stenhousemuir win
11.75%
Draw
18.25%
Motherwell win
70%
51.5%BTTS
46.9%Over 2.5
31.7%Stenhousemuir clean sheet
24.7%Motherwell clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-2

The data suggests that Motherwell holds a strong advantage over Stenhousemuir, having won their previous head-to-head encounter. With Motherwell securing 3 wins in their last 5 matches, they appear to be in better form compared to Stenhousemuir, who have struggled with consistency. Stenhousemuir's defensive record of 1.2 goals conceded per game further hints at vulnerabilities that Motherwell may exploit.

  • Motherwell won the last encounter 1-0 against Stenhousemuir
  • Motherwell has a superior recent form with 3 wins in their last 5 matches
  • Stenhousemuir averages 1.1 goals scored and 1.2 goals conceded per game
  • Motherwell has limited their opponents to 0.89 xG per game in their last 10 matches
AI ConfidenceHigh confidence
87/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and some historical data (form, H2H or standings) is still incomplete.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Motherwell

  • Historical edgeMotherwell

    Motherwell have won 1 of the last 1 meetings between these two teams.

    1/1 H2H wins
  • Sharper attackMotherwell

    Motherwell are averaging 1.3 goals scored per game over their recent matches.

    1.3/game
  • Tighter defenseStenhousemuir

    Stenhousemuir are conceding just 1 goals per game over their recent matches.

    1/game conceded

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

  • AI and market are closely aligned

    The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pickExact score missed

We picked Motherwell at 70% — final result was Stenhousemuir win, Stenhousemuir 1-0 Motherwell.

Predicted score was 1-2.

This was a high confidence pick (87/100) that didn't come through — a reminder that no forecast is guaranteed.

Closing odds vs. our model

Motherwell1.37market 72.8% · model 70%
Draw4.65market 21.5% · model 18.25%
Stenhousemuir ✓7.14market 14% · model 11.75%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

  • Stenhousemuir have averaged 1.2 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Motherwell have averaged 1.3 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.

Head-to-head

Last 1 meetings

0Stenhousemuir wins
0Draws
1Motherwell wins
0-1Goals
Stenhousemuir
0–1Jul 19, 2025, 2:00 PM
Motherwell

Odds comparison

Match winner

Stenhousemuir7.14▼best 9.00
Draw4.65▼best 5.20
Motherwell1.37▲best 1.45

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.56▲best 1.60
Under 2.52.28▼best 2.40

Both teams to score

Yes1.78▼best 1.91
No1.92▲best 2.00

Double chance

Stenhousemuir/Draw2.84▼best 3.10
Stenhousemuir/Motherwell1.15▲best 1.20
Draw/Motherwell1.08▲best 1.13

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.06best 1.06
Clean Sheet - Away — Yes1.91best 1.91
Clean Sheet - Away — No1.80best 1.80
Clean Sheet - Home — Yes10.00best 10.00

Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Stenhousemuir7.14▼ 2.03
Draw4.65▼ 0.29
Motherwell1.37▲ 0.09
15 Aug – 16 Aug

Model vs market

Stenhousemuir win-1.2pp
AI
11.75%
Market
12.9%
Draw-1.6pp
AI
18.25%
Market
19.9%
Motherwell win+2.8pp
AI
70%
Market
67.2%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

Standings not available yet.

Pre-match comparison

1.2Goals scored per game1.3
1Goals conceded per game1.6

Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.

Referee

C. Steven

3Yellow cards / game
0.2Red cards / game
0.2Penalties scored / game

Based on 5 matches officiated (our own data).

When do they score?

Stenhousemuir

0-15'
0%
16-30'
0%
31-45'
0%
46-60'
50%
61-75'
0%
76-90+'
50%

Motherwell

0-15'
33.3%
16-30'
0%
31-45'
0%
46-60'
33.3%
61-75'
33.3%
76-90+'
0%

Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win Stenhousemuir vs Motherwell?+

Our AI model favors Motherwell to win, with a 70% probability (Draw 18.25%, Stenhousemuir 11.75%).

Where is Stenhousemuir vs Motherwell played?+

The match is played at Ochilview Park, Stenhousemuir (capacity 5,267).

What time does Stenhousemuir vs Motherwell kick off?+

Kickoff is at Aug 16, 2026, 1:00 PM (your local time, based on your device).