Stjarnan vs Thor Akureyri — Úrvalsdeild

Úrvalsdeild· Regular Season - 20

Stjarnan

4–2Full-time

Thor Akureyri

WWDLWLGoals 16-177th in league

LLGoals 0-412th in league

Home4W 1D 5L(21-22)

Away1W 2D 7L(8-30)

Today

Lineups~1h before

Kickoff

Half-time

Full-time

Match events

6'O. Eggertsson (B. Ingason)
6'O. Eggertsson (B. Ingason)
41'E. Atlason (O. Eggertsson)
43'B. Ingason
45'B. Ingason (E. Atlason)
46'A. Arnarsson (V. Ottosson)
56'E. Halldorsson (S. Gunnarsson)
61'Y. Affi
61'E. Atlason
63'A. Hauksson (A. Vilhjálmsson)
63'O. Eggertsson (D. Matthiasson)
69'A. Sigurjonsson (F. Gislason)
69'V. Bertomeu (F. Gislason)
70'A. Sigurjonsson (P. Helgason)
71'B. Ingason (I. Turay)
71'B. Hauksson (D. Dankerlui)
72'D. Matthiasson
72'S. Gunnarsson (B. Brynjolfsson)
74'G. Gudbrandsson
78'E. Atlason (C. Alexandersson)
83'Y. Affi (T. Ingolfsson)
89'C. Jakobsen (S. Gunnarsson)

Lineups unavailable for this match.

StjarnanThor Akureyri

1.6
Goals/game: 0.0; 1.7
Conceded/game: 2.0

AI match analysis

Stjarnan win

66.57%

Draw

17.19%

Thor Akureyri win

16.24%

47.8%BTTS

49.4%Over 2.5

42.7%Stjarnan clean sheet

16.5%Thor Akureyri clean sheet

Predicted score: 2-0

Data suggests that Stjarnan has a stronger home presence despite their struggles this season, with 3 wins out of 9 home matches. Thor Akureyri's recent form indicates vulnerability, particularly with their failure to score in the last two games. The key metrics favor a Stjarnan victory in this matchup.

Stjarnan's home record shows 3 wins in 9 matches this season
Thor Akureyri has only 1 win from 9 away games
Stjarnan averages 1.6 goals scored per match in their last 10 matches
Thor Akureyri has failed to score in their last 2 matches

AI ConfidenceHigh confidence

93/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Stjarnan

Sharper attackStjarnan
Stjarnan are averaging 1.6 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
1.6/game
Poor recent formStjarnan
Stjarnan have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
1W 1D 3L
Poor recent formThor Akureyri
Thor Akureyri have lost 2 of their last 2 matches.
0W 0D 2L
Strong home recordStjarnan
Stjarnan have won 4 of their last 10 home matches.
4/10 home wins

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

Limited recent-match sample
Thor Akureyri has fewer than 5 recent matches on record, so recent-form signals here are based on a small sample.
AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
No head-to-head history
These two teams have no recorded meetings, so the prediction relies on form and standings alone.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pickExact score missed

We picked Stjarnan at 66.57% — final result was Stjarnan win, Stjarnan 4-2 Thor Akureyri.

Predicted score was 2-0.

This was a high confidence pick (93/100) — and it paid off.

Closing odds vs. our model

Stjarnan ✓1.46market 68.7% · model 66.57%

Draw4.70market 21.3% · model 17.19%

Thor Akureyri4.92market 20.3% · model 16.24%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

Stjarnan have averaged 1.6 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Thor Akureyri have averaged 0 goals scored per game over their last 2 matches.

Head-to-head

No previous meetings on record.

Odds comparison

Match winner

Stjarnan1.46▲best 1.50

Draw4.70▼best 5.11

Thor Akureyri4.92▼best 5.25

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.25▲best 1.30

Under 2.53.40▼best 3.80

Both teams to score

Yes1.37best 1.40

No2.78best 2.90

Double chance

Stjarnan/Draw1.14▲best 1.17

Stjarnan/Thor Akureyri1.14▲best 1.17

Draw/Thor Akureyri2.47▼best 2.63

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.30▼best 1.30

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes3.40▲best 3.40

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.05best 1.05

Clean Sheet - Away — Yes8.50best 8.50

Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Stjarnan1.46▲ 0.05

Draw4.70▼ 0.33

Thor Akureyri4.92▼ 0.36

20 Aug – 23 Aug

Model vs market

Stjarnan win+4.3pp

66.57%

Market

62.3%

Draw-2.1pp

17.19%

Market

19.3%

Thor Akureyri win-2.2pp

16.24%

Market

18.4%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.