bet2837
EN

Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau

Bundesliga· Regular Season - 4
Sturm Graz
1–1Full-time
Austria Lustenau
WWLWGoals 13-73rd in league
WDLWGoals 11-105th in league
Home1W 1D 0L(2-1)
Away0W 1D 1L(2-3)
Merkur-Arena

Merkur-Arena, Graz · Capacity 16,764 · grass · Referee: J. Weinberger

Today
Lineups~1h before
Kickoff
Half-time
Full-time

Match events

  1. 10'D. Weixelbraun (Danilo Soares)
  2. 46'S. Wlodarczyk (N. Weiper)
  3. 53'L. Afrifa
  4. 65'Seedy Jatta
  5. 66'N. Weiper
  6. 67'Simon Seidl (L. Balbo)
  7. 67'A. Gashi (L. Jastremski)
  8. 67'Jurgen Heil (G. Mamageishvili)
  9. 67'E. Soglo (L. Balbo)
  10. 67'Simon Seidl (G. Mamageishvili)
  11. 73'F. Gmeiner
  12. 77'D. Weixelbraun (H. Ismailcebioglu)
  13. 77'L. Afrifa (S. Delaye)
  14. 79'P. Petrovic (Paul-Friedrich Koller)
  15. 79'Seedy Jatta (Belmin Beganović)
  16. 88'Dion Kacuri (P. Grabher)
  17. 89'A. Verinac (P. Benjamin)
  18. 90+2'G. Mamageishvili
  19. 90+5'H. Ismailcebioglu
  20. 90+8'D. Schierl
Lineups unavailable for this match.
Sturm GrazAustria Lustenau
1.3
Goals/game
1.1
0.7
Conceded/game
1.0

AI match analysis

Sturm Graz win
69%
Draw
18%
Austria Lustenau win
13%
40.6%BTTS
33.7%Over 2.5
40.7%Sturm Graz clean sheet
31.7%Austria Lustenau clean sheet

Predicted score: 2-0

The data suggests a strong advantage for Sturm Graz in this matchup, particularly given their unbeaten record against Austria Lustenau in their last four encounters. Sturm Graz's flawless home form this season complements their strong recent performances, making them likely to score multiple goals. Meanwhile, Austria Lustenau's troubles away from home and their struggle to secure points could lead to a challenging outing at Merkur-Arena.

  • Sturm Graz unbeaten against Austria Lustenau in the last 4 meetings
  • Sturm Graz has a perfect home record this season
  • Austria Lustenau has not secured any points away this season
  • Sturm Graz averages 1.3 goals scored and 0.7 goals conceded in recent matches.
AI ConfidenceHigh confidence
99/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Sturm Graz

  • Strong home recordSturm Graz

    Sturm Graz have won 1 of their last 2 home matches.

    1/2 home wins
  • Weak away recordAustria Lustenau

    Austria Lustenau have won 0 of their last 2 away matches.

    0/2 away wins
  • Historical edgeSturm Graz

    Sturm Graz have won 4 of the last 4 meetings between these two teams.

    4/4 H2H wins
  • Good recent formSturm Graz

    Sturm Graz have won 4 of their last 5 matches.

    4W 0D 1L

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

  • AI and market are closely aligned

    The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pickExact score missed

We picked Sturm Graz at 69% — final result was a draw, Sturm Graz 1-1 Austria Lustenau.

Predicted score was 2-0.

This was a high confidence pick (99/100) that didn't come through — a reminder that no forecast is guaranteed.

Closing odds vs. our model

Sturm Graz1.35market 74.1% · model 69%
Draw ✓4.98market 20.1% · model 18%
Austria Lustenau7.62market 13.1% · model 13%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

  • Sturm Graz have averaged 1.3 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Austria Lustenau have averaged 1.1 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Over 2.5 goals landed in 0 of the last 4 meetings between these two sides.
  • Both teams scored in 0 of the last 4 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings

4Sturm Graz wins
0Draws
0Austria Lustenau wins
7-0Goals
Sturm Graz
2–0Nov 25, 2023, 4:00 PM
Austria Lustenau
Austria Lustenau
0–1Aug 19, 2023, 3:00 PM
Sturm Graz
Austria Lustenau
0–2Mar 4, 2023, 4:00 PM
Sturm Graz
Sturm Graz
2–0Sep 18, 2022, 12:30 PM
Austria Lustenau

Odds comparison

Match winner

Sturm Graz1.35▲best 1.38
Draw4.98▼best 5.39
Austria Lustenau7.62▼best 9.40

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.50▼best 1.54
Under 2.52.45▲best 2.58

Both teams to score

Yes1.74▼best 1.80
No1.98▲best 2.05

Double chance

Sturm Graz/Draw1.08best 1.11
Sturm Graz/Austria Lustenau1.15▲best 1.18
Draw/Austria Lustenau3.05▼best 3.30

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.62▲best 1.62
Clean Sheet - Home — Yes2.20▼best 2.20
Clean Sheet - Away — Yes9.00best 9.00
Clean Sheet - Away — No1.07best 1.07

Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Sturm Graz1.35
Draw4.98▼ 0.02
Austria Lustenau7.62▼ 0.18
19 Aug – 22 Aug

Model vs market

Sturm Graz win-0.1pp
AI
69%
Market
69.1%
Draw-0.7pp
AI
18%
Market
18.7%
Austria Lustenau win+0.8pp
AI
13%
Market
12.2%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

League standings

#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
3
Sturm Graz
4220+38DWWD
5
Austria Lustenau
412105DWLD

Pre-match comparison

1.3Goals scored per game1.1
0.7Goals conceded per game1

Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.

Referee

J. Weinberger

3.96Yellow cards / game
0.17Red cards / game
0.17Penalties scored / game

Based on 24 matches officiated (our own data).

When do they score?

Sturm Graz

0-15'
21.4%
16-30'
7.1%
31-45'
0%
46-60'
0%
61-75'
14.3%
76-90+'
57.1%

Austria Lustenau

0-15'
0%
16-30'
33.3%
31-45'
33.3%
46-60'
33.3%
61-75'
0%
76-90+'
0%

More Bundesliga predictions

Bundesliga
Aug 28, 2026, 5:30 PM
Austria Lustenau
WSG Wattens
11.9949.00%
X3.6226.00%
23.4825.00%
Prediction:Austria Lustenau
Bundesliga
Aug 29, 2026, 3:00 PM
Grazer AK
Wolfsberger AC
12.88
X3.49
22.27
Bundesliga
Aug 29, 2026, 5:30 PM
Lask Linz
SCR Altach
11.40
X4.62
26.81
Bundesliga
Aug 30, 2026, 3:00 PM
TSV Hartberg
Ried
12.83
X3.36
22.36

Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau?+

Our AI model favors Sturm Graz to win, with a 69% probability (Draw 18%, Austria Lustenau 13%).

Where is Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau played?+

The match is played at Merkur-Arena, Graz (capacity 16,764).

What time does Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau kick off?+

Kickoff is at Aug 22, 2026, 5:30 PM (your local time, based on your device).